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How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

issues.org

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Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#21

Post by antegamisou »

CharlesW wrote: post #7
mbgerring wrote: post #2

This is waaaaaaaaay too many words when all they want to say is “RCP8.5 is now unrealistic given progress towards climate goals, and the “business as usual” scenario should be updated in the next IPCC report”

Thank you. This seemed like it was written by a student who was saying the same thing over and over in order to satisfy a 4,500-word target, and I was wondering what I was missing.

Unfortunately I feel like submissions on the site, as well as general content online, of the same type for significantly less academic subjects (this new cool web framework I'll spend 6000 words writing about) are the norm now.

And before anyone says so, no it has nothing to do with the supposed lessened attention span smartphones have caused. I'm not wasting 15 minutes of my life reading about social media recommendation algorithms [1] when not even a single paragraph is dedicated to at least some rudimentary technical explanation behind them.

Same goes for 30-minute YouTube videos attempting to maximize monetization for subjects whose explanation in less than 10 minutes for an average intelligence person is adequate.

Here's also a recent example of ideal, imo, technical writing that is sadly getting more scarce:

https://www.bunniestudios.com/blog/?p=6712

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35087973

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#22

Post by Retric »

AstixAndBelix wrote: post #13
krainboltgreene wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kind of a waste, since I can't verify if this actually is a summary with confidence.

And you can with GP? GPT is incredibly good at summarizing, it doesn't make stuff up in those cases

Any idea how that works with its token limit?

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#23

Post by tunesmith »

cebert wrote: post #10
mbgerring wrote: post #2

This is waaaaaaaaay too many words when all they want to say is “RCP8.5 is now unrealistic given progress towards climate goals, and the “business as usual” scenario should be updated in the next IPCC report”

> This is waaaaaaaaay too many words… I agree, so I used ChatGPT to summarize this for us: In the article "Climate Change Scenarios Have Lost Touch with Reality," written by Roger Pielke Jr. and Justin Ritchie and published in Issues in Science and Technology, the authors argue that the climate change scenarios used by policymakers and scientists have become disconnected from empirical reality. They suggest that this…

That summary doesn't cover whether the writers think the baseline scenarios are too rosy or too dire.

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#24

Post by lispisok »

acdha wrote: post #20
lispisok wrote: post #17

I'm gonna plug Roger Pielke Jr (obligatory not a climate change denier by any means disclaimer) who talks a lot about issues like these. Climate change has become an industry now. A lot of people are selling research and solutions and they hype up the problem as much as they can even if it's not realistic. Nobody on the center or left has been checking them because they don't want to be labeled a climate change denie…

Ah, where have I seen that name before? Oh, right, the authors of the linked article.

haha didnt notice that

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#25

Post by admax88qqq »

SV_BubbleTime wrote: post #5
zug_zug wrote: post #3

Despite the provocative title this seems well-intentioned. The scientific accuracy needs to be top-priority, these particular elements of the projections should be assessed and reevaluated if necessary.

[flagged]

What makes those people frauds?

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#26

Post by favaq »

nickpeterson wrote: post #9
SV_BubbleTime wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I’m going to imagine you mean ‘pawn’ instead of tool here. Otherwise it feels pretty harsh for a young girl who just cares about earth.

When we talk about "Greta" we don't mean the "young girl", we mean all the propaganda machine that uses her as a tool.

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#28

Post by jasonhansel »

mbgerring wrote: post #2

This is waaaaaaaaay too many words when all they want to say is “RCP8.5 is now unrealistic given progress towards climate goals, and the “business as usual” scenario should be updated in the next IPCC report”

I get the sense that they are trying very carefully not to sound like climate change denialists, so that they won't get conflated with people much further from the scientific consensus. If they just said "the IPCC models are BS," they would likely be dismissed out of hand, at least in the scientific community.

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#30

Post by arrosenberg »

cebert wrote: post #15
krainboltgreene wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kind of a waste, since I can't verify if this actually is a summary with confidence.

Summarization is one the areas ChatGPT is most reliable. I’ve been using it frequently for research and work and antidotally found it to be quite reliable and helpful.

I'm glad you are no longer feeling poisoned!
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