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How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

issues.org

11–20 of 85 posts

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#11

This is waaaaaaaaay too many words when all they want to say is “RCP8.5 is now unrealistic given progress towards climate goals, and the “business as usual” scenario should be updated in the next IPCC report”

Considering the extraordinary disruptions through Covid and Russia I would argue it is too early to make changes to fundamental trend predictions.

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#12
post #10

This is waaaaaaaaay too many words when all they want to say is “RCP8.5 is now unrealistic given progress towards climate goals, and the “business as usual” scenario should be updated in the next IPCC report”

> This is waaaaaaaaay too many words… I agree, so I used ChatGPT to summarize this for us: In the article "Climate Change Scenarios Have Lost Touch with Reality," written by Roger Pielke Jr. and Justin Ritchie and published in Issues in Science and Technology, the authors argue that the climate change scenarios used by policymakers and scientists have become disconnected from empirical reality. They suggest that this…

Kind of a waste, since I can't verify if this actually is a summary with confidence.

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#13
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is waaaaaaaaay too many words… I agree, so I used ChatGPT to summarize this for us: In the article "Climate Change Scenarios Have Lost Touch with Reality," written by Roger Pielke Jr. and Justin Ritchie and published in Issues in Science and Technology, the authors argue that the climate change scenarios used by policymakers and scientists have become disconnected from empirical reality. They suggest that this…

Kind of a waste, since I can't verify if this actually is a summary with confidence.

And you can with GP? GPT is incredibly good at summarizing, it doesn't make stuff up in those cases

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I’m going to imagine you mean ‘pawn’ instead of tool here. Otherwise it feels pretty harsh for a young girl who just cares about earth.

> a young girl who just cares about earth

I imagine there are several 100M of those on the planet. Most do not get to address the UN, nor have well-off parents who are using her to get publicity that they couldn't get for their own views.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10059484/greta-thunberg-parent...

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#15
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is waaaaaaaaay too many words… I agree, so I used ChatGPT to summarize this for us: In the article "Climate Change Scenarios Have Lost Touch with Reality," written by Roger Pielke Jr. and Justin Ritchie and published in Issues in Science and Technology, the authors argue that the climate change scenarios used by policymakers and scientists have become disconnected from empirical reality. They suggest that this…

Kind of a waste, since I can't verify if this actually is a summary with confidence.

Summarization is one the areas ChatGPT is most reliable. I’ve been using it frequently for research and work and antidotally found it to be quite reliable and helpful.

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#16
post #10

This is waaaaaaaaay too many words when all they want to say is “RCP8.5 is now unrealistic given progress towards climate goals, and the “business as usual” scenario should be updated in the next IPCC report”

> This is waaaaaaaaay too many words… I agree, so I used ChatGPT to summarize this for us: In the article "Climate Change Scenarios Have Lost Touch with Reality," written by Roger Pielke Jr. and Justin Ritchie and published in Issues in Science and Technology, the authors argue that the climate change scenarios used by policymakers and scientists have become disconnected from empirical reality. They suggest that this…

The article is so generic and abstract that even the summary is verbose.

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#17
I'm gonna plug Roger Pielke Jr (obligatory not a climate change denier by any means disclaimer) who talks a lot about issues like these. Climate change has become an industry now. A lot of people are selling research and solutions and they hype up the problem as much as they can even if it's not realistic. Nobody on the center or left has been checking them because they don't want to be labeled a climate change denier. Good to see that's starting to change.

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/archive

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#18
post #3

Despite the provocative title this seems well-intentioned. The scientific accuracy needs to be top-priority, these particular elements of the projections should be assessed and reevaluated if necessary.

I think the entire article could be summarized as “historically there were a bunch of scenarios projecting possible future emissions. We have made progress on reducing emissions, so therefore we should emphasize some of the lower-emissions scenarios and retire the high-emissions scenarios.”

It’s an eminently reasonable request, one that should be celebrated. I don’t know why it’s necessary to write thousands of words impugning the scientific integrity of climate science.

What is much scarier to me are possible effects of GHGs that could make any emissions path much worse. Methane levels seem to be increasing, which could make current projections obsolete very quickly.

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#19
post #10

This is waaaaaaaaay too many words when all they want to say is “RCP8.5 is now unrealistic given progress towards climate goals, and the “business as usual” scenario should be updated in the next IPCC report”

> This is waaaaaaaaay too many words… I agree, so I used ChatGPT to summarize this for us: In the article "Climate Change Scenarios Have Lost Touch with Reality," written by Roger Pielke Jr. and Justin Ritchie and published in Issues in Science and Technology, the authors argue that the climate change scenarios used by policymakers and scientists have become disconnected from empirical reality. They suggest that this…

Please don't. Anyone on HN who wants a ChatGPT summary can make one themselves; when I read a person's post I want to know what that person has to say about a topic, not what they can produce with a machine. It's the same reason we don't need comments along the lines of 'I used a spell checker to identify the typos in your comment' or consisting of tables generated in MS Excel.

edit: it's not due to any antipathy to AI. I love using ChatGPT myself.

Re: How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch with Reality

#20

I'm gonna plug Roger Pielke Jr (obligatory not a climate change denier by any means disclaimer) who talks a lot about issues like these. Climate change has become an industry now. A lot of people are selling research and solutions and they hype up the problem as much as they can even if it's not realistic. Nobody on the center or left has been checking them because they don't want to be labeled a climate change denie…

Ah, where have I seen that name before? Oh, right, the authors of the linked article.
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