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SVB Financial: Blow Up Risk (2022)

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Re: SVB Financial: Blow Up Risk (2022)

#21

Wow, how prescient. Articles like this are especially damning to the execs that sold stocks just a few weeks ago. This was not some huge surprise. They may not have anticipated the ferocity with which there would be a run on the bank, but they absolutely knew they were in deep shit and would need to do a capital raise. And I hope nobody tries to defend this with "those stock sales were from 10b5-1 plans!". Those can…

Who got hurt by execs selling stock into the market? Hopefully sophisticated investors who should’ve known better. For over a year there were indicators SVB was not healthy. “We are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price.” Edit: if you don’t like the 10b5-1 rules as they stand, feel free to submit a comment to Gensler and Co at the SEC. If you can’t trade on positive material non public informatio…

> “We are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price.”

A line from the really good movie Margin Call:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_Call

Worth checking out.

Re: SVB Financial: Blow Up Risk (2022)

#22
post #5

The author had a short position. You can find it at the end of the article: Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of SIVB either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives.

If they thought the stock was going to $0, they sure wouldn't have a Long position would they?

What do you think all these guys on CNBC all day talking up stocks do.. not own it already themselves?

Re: SVB Financial: Blow Up Risk (2022)

#23
post #3

Note this was published dec 2022.

So, classic bank run... except there were 6 people on the same chat channel controlling 10% of the bank's reserves. Once they notice, poof!

This is also why small, concentrated merchant banks like this are risky. Deposit base is too homogenous.

Re: SVB Financial: Blow Up Risk (2022)

#24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who got hurt by execs selling stock into the market? Hopefully sophisticated investors who should’ve known better. For over a year there were indicators SVB was not healthy. “We are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price.” Edit: if you don’t like the 10b5-1 rules as they stand, feel free to submit a comment to Gensler and Co at the SEC. If you can’t trade on positive material non public informatio…

> “We are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price.” A line from the really good movie Margin Call : * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_Call Worth checking out.

In my opinion, it’s the best movie ever about finance, and it’s not even close.

Re: SVB Financial: Blow Up Risk (2022)

#25

Wow, how prescient. Articles like this are especially damning to the execs that sold stocks just a few weeks ago. This was not some huge surprise. They may not have anticipated the ferocity with which there would be a run on the bank, but they absolutely knew they were in deep shit and would need to do a capital raise. And I hope nobody tries to defend this with "those stock sales were from 10b5-1 plans!". Those can…

Who got hurt by execs selling stock into the market? Hopefully sophisticated investors who should’ve known better. For over a year there were indicators SVB was not healthy. “We are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price.” Edit: if you don’t like the 10b5-1 rules as they stand, feel free to submit a comment to Gensler and Co at the SEC. If you can’t trade on positive material non public informatio…

> Edit: if you don’t like the 10b5-1 rules as they stand, feel free to submit a comment to Gensler and Co at the SEC.

The SEC already tried this. Courts have ruled that you can't be charged with insider trading for not executing a trade, but the end result is the same: just set up plans that you cancel if you don't want them to trade. Can't remember the name of the court case but shouldn't be too hard to find by Googling. SEC has tried to tighten the rules by requiring that cancellation of any trade cancels the whole plan, but their hands are also tied based on court rulings.

Re: SVB Financial: Blow Up Risk (2022)

#26
After reading this article my take on the situation substantially changed from the typical (here) "idiot bankers put all their assets in HTM instruments".

ianab but I get the impression that when you're operating a bank you think of depositors and loans like a SaaS service would view subscribers. You want more deposits same as we want more subscribers. Having got more deposits you set about lending the money in order to make a profit.

Most businesses that don't go broke take on "steady state" characteristics -- month to month the money coming in and going out is much the same. Hopefully rising a bit each month, but mostly tomorrow is the same thing as yesterday.

That would be the case with a typical big bank. e.g. my businesses bank with WF. We have some amount of cash on deposit there that varies through the month and the year but long term averages to some near constant. Once the bank has thousands of businesses as clients all those deposits' noise will smooth out and as someone running that bank it looks like you can rely on having some $$$ of deposits, always. In this situation you don't actually care whether you put the money in liquid or HTM instruments because net nobody is going to withdraw it anyway.

Here's where I think SVB went off the rails : their customers were not normal businesses. This meant that the assumption that deposits would remain roughly static was not valid. That's because a large proportion of the deposits represented startup burn fuel.

Deposited funds that starts ups are burning through will only remain static if there is a constant flow of new start ups. That wasn't the case in the last couple of years as the free money environment dried up.

So now you have big net outflows from SVB because no new start ups are being funded, but the existing ones are still burning their money.

And then it gets worse because all the depositors are part of the same close social network and therefore can organize a run quickly and easily.

Re: SVB Financial: Blow Up Risk (2022)

#27
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, classic bank run... except there were 6 people on the same chat channel controlling 10% of the bank's reserves. Once they notice, poof!

This is also why small, concentrated merchant banks like this are risky. Deposit base is too homogenous.

It was one of the 15 largest banks in the country.. if depositors lose money here, every bank in US better be ready Monday morning as every company moves all of their funds to one of the top 3.

Re: SVB Financial: Blow Up Risk (2022)

#28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is also why small, concentrated merchant banks like this are risky. Deposit base is too homogenous.

It was one of the 15 largest banks in the country.. if depositors lose money here, every bank in US better be ready Monday morning as every company moves all of their funds to one of the top 3.

Most banks the vast majority 60-70% of depositors are insured.

SVB was under 10% They were super concentrated in one industry, their depositors themselves were super concentrated with their deposits and they were poorly run.

They’ll be open in some capacity Monday but the idea that big rich uninsured depositors should be made whole because of vibes is silly. They have a $10Bish hole. TBD how this plays out.

Re: SVB Financial: Blow Up Risk (2022)

#29

Wow, how prescient. Articles like this are especially damning to the execs that sold stocks just a few weeks ago. This was not some huge surprise. They may not have anticipated the ferocity with which there would be a run on the bank, but they absolutely knew they were in deep shit and would need to do a capital raise. And I hope nobody tries to defend this with "those stock sales were from 10b5-1 plans!". Those can…

> They may not have anticipated the ferocity with which there would be a run on the bank Bank runs are pretty much always ferocious because 1) that's what a run is, rather some euphemism for the prelude like "temporary liquidity processing anomaly" and 2) they're positive feedback loops that end up ferocious as soon as someone responding to the "TLPA" gets noticed by someone else.

A more charitable interpretation of what the OP is saying: the execs may not have anticipated how fast the shit would hit the fan. I doubt they believed there would be a run on the bank this month, not even the short sellers were predicting that. They did know they were in trouble, but I think everyone, even those being against SVB, was surprised by the speed and ferocity with which this played out.
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