This is all you needed to know to short SVB a month ago: https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1634246217226919937
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/sjim
Literally cannot go tits up.
A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
81–90 of 186 posts
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#82Earlier quoted context omitted.
At this point, I'd believe the conspiracy theory that Cramer saying something public is a secret signal to those in the know.
I am not from US, what is the story? Does that guy consistently make bad predictions?
https://nypost.com/2023/03/03/inverse-cramer-etf-lets-invest...
The fact multiple ETFs like this exist should tell you all you need to know.
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#83Could anyone in the know explain how "shorting" works?
When you buy a stock, you pay money and someone else gives you a stock. Once you have it, you can hold it for as long as you want. Its value can go up or down. When you sell, you get money, which might be less or more than what you paid. If the value goes to zero, you can no longer sell and you will never get any money. When you short a stock, you are basically selling a stock you don't have. Thus you get money and o…
Thanks for the explanation! What happens when someone shorts a stock and then the company goes under? In this case of SVB, you short a stock, company gets taken by FDIC, trading is halted and I'm assuming the company will be sold/dissolved? So what happens with the shorts?
Edit: Answered already by someone in other thread https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35107107
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#84Earlier quoted context omitted.
They might have bet a million dollars on it, but if their normal short position is also around a million dollars, then I am not as impressed. If they wanted to show everyone how smart they were, I expected a quote something like: "We were so confident in our analysis that we invested 10x our normal short position in it!"
it's not about being smart or anything, they just explain how they figured it out, doesn't matter how much money they made, that's just focusing on the wrong things
It does matter, because it's very easy to construct an explanation for how you "figured it out" after the fact, if one of your hundred small bets happened to work out. The person doing it may even fool themselves!
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#85Could anyone in the know explain how "shorting" works?
When you buy a stock, you pay money and someone else gives you a stock. Once you have it, you can hold it for as long as you want. Its value can go up or down. When you sell, you get money, which might be less or more than what you paid. If the value goes to zero, you can no longer sell and you will never get any money. When you short a stock, you are basically selling a stock you don't have. Thus you get money and o…
> someone else unknowingly gives you a stock for free and then you sell it
Lends it for a fee, right?
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#86Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#87So basically the rapid increase in interest rates combined with lack of diversity in the bank’s clientele and investment choices quickly turned SVB into a collapsing inadvertent pyramid scheme?
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#88[flagged]
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#89Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am not from US, what is the story? Does that guy consistently make bad predictions?
60% of the time his predictions work out every time
I only know Cramer from the fun and others meme is been the originator. But that statistics should be taken with caution. Being long equity since 2008 was not really a proof of creating a alpha ( aka adding superior return than the market).
That's the long term low interest rates environment that incentivize W Buffet to make his famous 10 years long sp500 won't be beaten by any HF.
Re: A SVB short seller explains red flags he saw months ago
#90This is all you needed to know to short SVB a month ago: https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1634246217226919937
On another note: The administrative officer of SVB is ex-CFO of Lehman Brothers.