Live data from Hacker News

Average Is Over

nytimes.com

161–170 of 254 posts

Re: Average Is Over

#161

What's usually missed is the value of being a skilled tradesman. Who fixes your robot? Who builds your house? Not everyone is cut out for college, actually, most people aren't.

Not everyone is cut out for college, actually, most people aren't.

That is me. Once upon a time, I applied to take CS at a number of institutions. I was rejected from them all. Not that it really stopped me, I just had to learn it all by myself. Now I get to play "lead engineer" on some pretty significant projects and have CS grads coming to me for help.

But the meme I see often on HN and elsewhere is that you need to go to college. What they fail to account for is that college is a protected class where most people do not have the choice of going, even if they wanted to. I certainly didn't have the opportunity – though in hindsight, it was probably a blessing.

Re: Average Is Over

#162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> who fixes your robot? Who fixes humans? Robots will do this eventually. > Who builds your house? Robots here too. Just because they can't do it today doesn't mean you shouldn't plan on them being able to do it.

The question is, will a robot that is autonomous enough and sophisticated enough to build a house be cheaper to operate than a human worker? As complexity of machines increases, the number of ways they can break down increases exponentially. Humans bodies are self-repairing for the most part except in cases of severe traumatic injury and disease.

The complexity of a robot is mostly in the software. Input (cameras and microphones) and output (robotic arms, etc) have been around for decades, but robots have not been able to interpret a picture of the world effectively. That's a software problem.

The thing about software is that you write it once and then it's free to copy. The first general-purpose robot workers will probably run expensive proprietary software, but 10 years later there will be usable open source versions. The physical robot itself will become cheaper, if anything, due to economies of scale.

Re: Average Is Over

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And some people do have a problem with this. I'm always curious about this -- to what extent do you think you can compel Maggie, me, and others who don't share your values to solve a collective action problem we don't particularly think is a problem? And what side effects do you think that will have on society? Edit: yeah, yeah, downvote because I don't share your values, fine by me -- but my questions weren't rhetor…

(preface: I'm an American speaking from an American POV, not sure where you're located so this may not be 100% relevant if you're aussie or swedish or canadian or something) I think that everyone in a society as wealthy as our own deserves the chance at a life free from fear. Freedom from the fear of hunger, from the fear of a parent losing their job and being plunged into destitution. Freedom from the fear of medica…

Thanks. I'm in America too, although I'm not American.

We agree completely on the need for some sort of minimal welfare state. No one wants to let others die on the street. I've said as much elsewhere in this thread.

We don't agree if you, like Friedman, think we need "a G.I. Bill for the 21st century that ensures that every American has access to post-high school education." I don't believe our current levels of spending are sustainable.

I suspect that the burden of making our current benefits sustainable, and adding new benefits to the list, will fall predominantly on me - I'm not rich by any means, but my household falls comfortably into the group that regularly gets singled out for tax increases. And I have plans for that money that involve my own family, my own business, and own community.

Like you, I would prefer a majority of Americans agree with me. But as it is, about 40% of Americans agree with each of us and the rest bounce back and forth.

I think it'd be relatively easy to negotiate an acceptable, sustainable amount of social spending if people of my ilk thought that'd be the end of it - if it were clear that this was a compromise between different worldviews, and that the concessions made wouldn't just get reopened in the next election.

But I rarely hear an advocate for additional social spending say 'no, a tax rate of over X% would be definitely unfair, whatever you make - we won't require you to pay that.' I've also rarely heard advocates for additional social spending say 'a welfare state above X would be excessive.'

If I'm willing to concede a minimum level of welfare state spending - most conservatives are - surely the other half of America should be willing to set a maximum level. How much compulsion (since it is compulsion, I'd much rather spend my money on my family) do you think is too much?

Re: Average Is Over

#165

I can't believe those Presto touchscreens at restaurants are $100 per month. I love gadgets and technology, but much prefer dealing with a server and think most people do. My kids like the games and nag incessantly to play the "pay" ones, but I hardly think this is the end of waitresses and waiters. (I hope)

I've noticed that just about any place with decent food and counter service seems to do brisk business. Look at the crowd at Chipotle or Panera at lunchtime. Maybe some people want a server some of the time, but in an era when fewer and fewer people cook, at least as many people want decent food at a decent price. Eliminating a 20% tip plus the cost of the server's benefits and wages baked into the bill helps with the price bit.

Re: Average Is Over

#166

I can't believe those Presto touchscreens at restaurants are $100 per month. I love gadgets and technology, but much prefer dealing with a server and think most people do. My kids like the games and nag incessantly to play the "pay" ones, but I hardly think this is the end of waitresses and waiters. (I hope)

Agreed, I think replacing waitresses with touchscreens removes an important part of the whole dining out experience. A touchscreen waiter seems very cold and utilitarian. It reminds me of the cheap LCD displays that have replaced gas station attendants. Almost all of the gas stations that I've used recently have them, and they all have very poorly worded prompts that show no regard for the time that I spend interacti…

If people really wanted gas station attendants, they would go to gas stations that had them instead of LCD displays, and you would see more of them. In reality, you can hardly find a gas station that has an attendant outside of states that don't let you pump your own gas, because the demand isn't there.

Re: Average Is Over

#167
Folks are harping on the meaning of "average," but it's clear to me that in the article, "average" here is a euphemism for "unskilled."

When you've been working as an semi-skilled laborer in a textile mill for 20 years, and suddenly your job is made redundant in favor of automation- your mill training becomes worthless. You don't need to become "above average," you just need to learn a different semi-skilled trade. Like pushing around excel spreadsheets.

Re: Average Is Over

#168
post #159

When a liberal talks about how somebody "should have access to" something, hang on to your wallet. Because you will pay for it.

Do people seriously consider this guy a liberal? He spent most of the 2000s talking about how awesome globalization is and how the free market was gonna fix everything.

"Liberal" is a relative term. If you like Noam Chomsky, Friedman probably looks pretty conservative, but if you like Ludwig von Mises, yeah, he's a liberal.

Re: Average Is Over

#169
post #159

When a liberal talks about how somebody "should have access to" something, hang on to your wallet. Because you will pay for it.

Do people seriously consider this guy a liberal? He spent most of the 2000s talking about how awesome globalization is and how the free market was gonna fix everything.

[deleted]

Re: Average Is Over

#170
I think we're all missing the point; namely, the assumption of Mr. Friedman’s rank. Suppose that Mr. Friedman is above average, then the suggestions in this opinion piece are plausible and should demand our sincere consideration. Now suppose that Mr. Friedman is below average. In this case, his suggestions are most certainly suspect and quite possibly invaluable; you should disregard everything that has been mentioned here today.

But all of that is irrelevant, because the truly significant aspect of human ranking is that someone outside the system must perform this activity. The only viable assessment of a human’s averageness must come from an unbiased source whose own averageness can never be in question. This outside, unbiased source must first assess Mr. Friedman’s averageness before any intelligent discussion can commence.

Post reply on HN