This is not a perfect analysis, but: - Roku has 487M in SVB - After the 8-K released, Roku lost 323M in market cap Basically, the market is expecting around 30c of value recouped for every dollar inside of SVB. (note: I know this analysis isn't perfect, but it gives a rough idea)
The market expects the bank going under to impact Roku by that much expected value. That's very different than saying the market expects a certain percentage of money to be returned in the end and it's not clear why this is supposed to give even a ballpark estimate of the expected recoup. After all the share price has way more to it than what the current assets come to. It's also very likely the market changes its mi…
Agree that the market might change its mind quickly, especially if estimated recoveries are projected to be high or the depositors completely made whole.