This napkin math is pointless, if you're a business leader, you're going to factor in non physical costs as well, since you need a team to run hundreds of servers most likely. If business all of a sudden starts to go under, you can pull plug on cloud, but you'd have to write it off if self hosting. Hosting yourself makes sense if you're providing hardware level services like storage or compute. In that case, going to…
What I'm struggling with is their estimate. I work for an enormous enterprise that runs tons of stuff on the cloud and our budget is less than a quarter of their AWS estimate. We avoid products like EBS unless they are necessary, and use RDS whenever possible.