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Average Is Over

nytimes.com

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Re: Average Is Over

#61

Post by UK-Al05 »

average_joe wrote: post #32
simonh wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>how about faux ai that can write simple web apps or come up with good designs? A major class of workers that software has a tendency of replacing is programmers themselves. Bespoke solutions are replaced by what used to be called shrink-wrapped applications. In the web area, look at how services such as Squarespace replace bespoke sites by providing easy to use site design tools.

I am that guy, the average programmer. I used to wire up mobile apps to back end services. I have had no interest in my services for over a year. I think I have been replaced by iCloud, urban airship, parse, etc...

Depends what you mean by average. If you've been programming in objective-c; that most likely means you understand memory management; small-talk style oo etc. Corporate Java programmers have forgot this stuff, yet they will always be in demand.

Re: Average Is Over

#62

Post by UK-Al05 »

beatpanda wrote: post #26

So we're currently building an economy that the "average person" doesn't have the skills to participate in. OK. So who are we building this economy for, and why?

Consumers. The economy serves the consumers.

Re: Average Is Over

#63

Post by adamgravitis »

The author's sudden and poorly supported conclusion doesn't really fit. Because people with bachelor's degrees have the least unemployment, it is imperative we pass a GI Bill to ensure everyone gets a bachelor's degree?!

He's getting the causality wrong. It's not because they have bachelor's degrees that they're getting jobs. They're getting jobs because they're (minimally) bright and (minimally) ambitious.

Printing 100 million bachelor's diplomas "solves" the unemployment problem in much the same way that printing 100 trillion dollars solves our financial problems: not at all.

Re: Average Is Over

#64

Post by invalidOrTaken »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #58
invalidOrTaken wrote: post #52

One question I've had for...a while now. If a) corporate profits are up b) hiring isn't happening, or is seeing a skills mismatch then where exactly are all these profits going? If they're going to capital goods for the company, that just moves the question on down the line. If they're going to shareholders, then what are those shareholders buying? And if it's just sitting in the bank, where is the bank lending it ou…

Many of the profits were earned overseas, and are being left there. If they bring the profits home to the US, they will be taxed. Essentially, the US is levying a tax on (certain) foreign investment, specifically investment by Google Ireland in Google USA. Additionally, most of the private sector is deleveraging and building up cash reserves to use in lieu of debt financing.

I don't know why you got downvoted (and your reply was certainly within the guidelines), but your answer left me with some questions: would profits left overseas mean that (well duh, but more so than otherwise) foreign consumer markets will pick up noticeably (and we therefore should be paying close attention)? And is there some specific reason the private sector is deleveraging? Have CFO's just gotten more spooked than before?

Thanks.

Re: Average Is Over

#65

Post by UK-Al05 »

zoltarSpeaks wrote: post #25
mikebracco wrote: post #2

Great article. This illustrates a fundamental mistake that many believe which is that just because they have a college degree they deserve a certain job, income or lifestyle.

Yeah I completely agree with this. There is an attitude just like this in England at the moment. There aren't enough graduates using their initiative and being creative in either finding jobs or making work for themselves to fight the declining level of jobs. The assumption is, leave school, go to University, get a job. Unfortunately for them that route is failing now.

You certainly have better chance at getting job by going to university; unemployment rate is higher for non-grads. Also running your own business is not as easy as it seems; especially without the connections to get the contracts. Expecting the graduates to work for themselves straight out of university is unrealistic.

Re: Average Is Over

#66

Post by _delirium »

muyuu wrote: post #44
mtts wrote: post #18

Ridiculous. The solution to average people becoming less relevant in the economy (which I don't dispute, btw) can of course never be to make everyone above average as that is by definition impossible. It's a feel good message for average folk that papers over the truth, which is that average folk that used to make a decent living doing average work will become poor. All of them, eventually. How poor exactly? Well, yo…

The solution is none. There is no "solution" because it, in itself, is not a problem. The problem is that everybody feels entitled to a top 10% salary and many would kill for "their fair share" when nowadays even the lower 10% have their basic needs covered and some left for leisure. The problem is that a society where everybody have similar incomes is somehow fairer, when there is no logical chain leading there and…

nowadays even the lower 10% have their basic needs covered and some left for leisure

Only really because of what's left of the welfare system, mainly Medicaid, Section 8 housing, food stamps, and the EITC; which I agree does help on the low end, but is increasingly being time-limited and rationed (e.g. Section 8 is hard to get into). The 10th-percentile household income in the U.S. is around $12,000. If that's all you had to live on, even in cheapish parts of the US it'd be quite a stretch to pay rent+food+transportation+healthcare out of that, especially for more than one person.

The problem is that a society where everybody have similar incomes is somehow fairer, when there is no logical chain leading there and to top it off it causes ruination.

Well, I've lived in both the U.S. and Denmark, which have very different levels of income inequality, and I wouldn't say Denmark has suffered ruination. There are pros and cons, of course. The logical chain isn't that complex if a society actually wants to implement it; it doesn't require some kind of communist revolution, just high and highly progressive taxes (including on capital gains), a national healthcare system, and a strong safety net.

Re: Average Is Over

#67

Post by yummyfajitas »

_delirium wrote: post #66
muyuu wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The solution is none. There is no "solution" because it, in itself, is not a problem. The problem is that everybody feels entitled to a top 10% salary and many would kill for "their fair share" when nowadays even the lower 10% have their basic needs covered and some left for leisure. The problem is that a society where everybody have similar incomes is somehow fairer, when there is no logical chain leading there and…

nowadays even the lower 10% have their basic needs covered and some left for leisure Only really because of what's left of the welfare system, mainly Medicaid, Section 8 housing, food stamps, and the EITC; which I agree does help on the low end, but is increasingly being time-limited and rationed (e.g. Section 8 is hard to get into). The 10th-percentile household income in the U.S. is around $12,000. If that's all yo…

The 10th-percentile household income in the U.S. is around $12,000. If that's all you had to live on...

It's not all you have to live on. People in these income ranges tend to have consumption of $18-22k.

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/ce/standard/2009/income.txt

The missing piece of the puzzle is that a lot of people in these income ranges receive many benefits which do not qualify as income.

Re: Average Is Over

#68

Post by _delirium »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #67
_delirium wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

nowadays even the lower 10% have their basic needs covered and some left for leisure Only really because of what's left of the welfare system, mainly Medicaid, Section 8 housing, food stamps, and the EITC; which I agree does help on the low end, but is increasingly being time-limited and rationed (e.g. Section 8 is hard to get into). The 10th-percentile household income in the U.S. is around $12,000. If that's all yo…

The 10th-percentile household income in the U.S. is around $12,000. If that's all you had to live on... It's not all you have to live on. People in these income ranges tend to have consumption of $18-22k. ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/ce/standard/2009/income.txt The missing piece of the puzzle is that a lot of people in these income ranges receive many benefits which do not qualify as income.

That's what the first part of my reply is, isn't it? EITC, Section 8 housing, food stamps, Medicaid, etc., are where the extra money comes from. Which I agree is a good thing, and what makes it at all possible to claim that the 10th-percentile income is one that's possible to live on. But I don't think those programs are very secure (they've been significantly cut, many are hard to get into now if you weren't already in, and I think more cuts are likely), so the prospects aren't great.

Re: Average Is Over

#69

Post by robryan »

zoltarSpeaks wrote: post #25
mikebracco wrote: post #2

Great article. This illustrates a fundamental mistake that many believe which is that just because they have a college degree they deserve a certain job, income or lifestyle.

Yeah I completely agree with this. There is an attitude just like this in England at the moment. There aren't enough graduates using their initiative and being creative in either finding jobs or making work for themselves to fight the declining level of jobs. The assumption is, leave school, go to University, get a job. Unfortunately for them that route is failing now.

In the past, when less people were attending university, this would be true as in getting a degree you were putting yourself into a fairly exclusive group. Now though, when so many are getting degrees, you need to go above and beyond them to put yourself in a group as exclusive as the degree would give you a generation ago.

Re: Average Is Over

#70

Post by yummyfajitas »

invalidOrTaken wrote: post #64
yummyfajitas wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of the profits were earned overseas, and are being left there. If they bring the profits home to the US, they will be taxed. Essentially, the US is levying a tax on (certain) foreign investment, specifically investment by Google Ireland in Google USA. Additionally, most of the private sector is deleveraging and building up cash reserves to use in lieu of debt financing.

I don't know why you got downvoted (and your reply was certainly within the guidelines), but your answer left me with some questions: would profits left overseas mean that (well duh, but more so than otherwise) foreign consumer markets will pick up noticeably (and we therefore should be paying close attention)? And is there some specific reason the private sector is deleveraging? Have CFO's just gotten more spooked t…

...would profits left overseas mean that (well duh, but more so than otherwise) foreign consumer markets will pick up noticeably...

No guarantee, but it's likely. If the overseas profits are invested, then yes. If it sits in the bank and is not invested, then maybe not.

From what I've read and seen, it seems that overseas consumer markets are increasing. Here in Pune, it's definitely the case. There are a ridiculous number shiny new apartment complexes advertised by pretty white ladies doing yoga, Centaurs, and claims that everyone will envy your opulence.

And is there some specific reason the private sector is deleveraging? Have CFO's just gotten more spooked than before?

The credit crunch is a very recent memory. If another one occurs, then any company that uses credit for cash flow could be destroyed. So yeah, hoarding cash is basically an insurance policy.

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