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Average Is Over

nytimes.com

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Re: Average Is Over

#21

Post by dclaysmith »

WalterBright wrote: post #11

The flip side is that all this automation makes stuff cheaper, and a better lifestyle is available for less money.

I think that should be the flip side but aside from 2009-2010 (the bulk of the recession), inflation has remained constant over the last ten years. Inflation adjusted wages have continued to decline to record numbers. The jobs that are returning in the current recovery have been primarily low paying ones (clearly IT is exempt from this).

What has been going up is corporate profits. Apple's latest figures are mind boggling. A billion dollars in profit a WEEK. Someone up higher in the comments wrote that we are at peak-capitalism and headed towards Marxism/Socialism. While I doubt that's going to happen (Wall St too strong, progressive politicians too weak) I think America needs to go that way.

As Elizabeth Warren said 'There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own'. I feel that corporations (they are people right) and "The 1%" need to pay as much or more of their income in taxes to repay society for their success. This money should be used to address the problems in this article. The US needs to make higher education and retraining free/affordable, make health care free, and provide better social safety nets. With these things in place, Americans will be able to start getting competitive again.

Re: Average Is Over

#22

Post by wladimir »

richardburton wrote: post #7

This is fascinating. I think the big (and scary) meta-trend is this: The population is increasing and the requirement for people is decreasing. This gap is made wider by increased birth-rates and better automation. More people are being born into a world where fewer are required. That is quite a scary thought. Computers and machines automate and replace people everywhere. I have some anecdotal evidence of this: At my…

I think it's also a matter of what kind of world we want.

For example: Do you choose to use software instead of employing a person because you prefer the software, or would you prefer to hire a person but choose software because it is cheaper (which helps the company survive) and kind-of can do the same job?

If it's the first, there's a good reason to be scared. If it's the second, then market forces might eventually balance out and make hiring people an attractive choice again.

Ideally, tools such as computers will go back to being tools, "human helpers" and not "human replacements".

I do not like to think about an automated, antisocial world in which less and less humans are needed because machines have taken over. Isn't that self-defeating anyway? When did we start putting our tools above ourselves?

Re: Average Is Over

#23

Post by hammerdr »

dave_sullivan wrote: post #10

I've been thinking about this a lot lately. I think he's right about many things there: manufacturing jobs are leaving and not coming back. Automation is becoming more and more advanced, particularly if you factor advances in robotics and ml since 2006 or so. Things move faster and average just doesn't seem to cut it when you can manufacture excellence. Hell, lawyers and doctors will be next, how about faux ai that c…

In the case of a "everything is automated, only a small portion of people are needed to produce essentials and even advance" society, would we just be better off with a system that relied on the altruism of the few to make the lives of everyone better and everyone else could just exist?

That sort of society has a slew of issues that could be better explored in futurist science fiction (things such as psychologic issues for the non-producers, the sustainability of altruism, etc.). But it is a consideration that I have thought about.

Capitalism isn't going to be subverted that quickly, though. The system will right itself and any revolution of that caliber will be long and hard fought. The world superpower will be a capitalist system in 2050 and probably 2100.

Re: Average Is Over

#24

Post by jharding »

This article reminds me of Player Piano by Kurt Vonnegut.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_Piano

It's a pretty good read. It has an interesting take on a future where machines do the majority of the work. With the way things are headed, I'd say a society like the one described in Player Piano might not be to far off. I'm still undecided whether that's a good thing or not.

Re: Average Is Over

#25

Post by zoltarSpeaks »

mikebracco wrote: post #2

Great article. This illustrates a fundamental mistake that many believe which is that just because they have a college degree they deserve a certain job, income or lifestyle.

Yeah I completely agree with this. There is an attitude just like this in England at the moment. There aren't enough graduates using their initiative and being creative in either finding jobs or making work for themselves to fight the declining level of jobs. The assumption is, leave school, go to University, get a job. Unfortunately for them that route is failing now.

Re: Average Is Over

#26

Post by beatpanda »

So we're currently building an economy that the "average person" doesn't have the skills to participate in.

OK.

So who are we building this economy for, and why?

Re: Average Is Over

#27

Post by _delirium »

zerostar07 wrote: post #17
wavephorm wrote: post #15

Welcome to Peak Capitalism. This is the peak of our current socio-economic system, and I'm fairly certain that everyone in the White House is now well-aware and convinced of what's likely going to happen over the course of the next 10 years. I hope they're preparing for it right now. I believe the coming collapse of the capitalistic-democractic system is imminent, and America needs to very seriously start planning fo…

How about searching for new economic models. Are 200 year old models really relevant anymore?

At the very least an update is probably in order. To really over-simplify (somewhat unfairly), my read of the "socialist alternative's" theorizing is that it's gone in waves roughly like this: 1) extensive analysis of 19th-century economic systems, especially factory production (Marx et al) and agriculture (Kropotkin, the kibbutz movement, etc.); followed by a period of 2) focus on culture/ideology/hegemony as the place the "real battle" is fought (Gramsci, neo-Gramscians, post-structuralist Marxism); but not really followed by 3) extensive analysis of 21st-century economic and technological systems.

I think even for people who disagree with them, it'd be healthier for there to be a Left that paid close, scientific/analytical attention to present-day material conditions, rather than focusing mainly on culture/ideology like the neo-Gramscians, or tying themselves too strongly to 19th-century analyses of 19th-century conditions. Or, for that matter, just taking an amorphous "against the greedy bankers" line like the populist left does, which is probably good politics, but not a deep analysis.

Re: Average Is Over

#28

Post by wladimir »

zerostar07 wrote: post #17
wavephorm wrote: post #15

Welcome to Peak Capitalism. This is the peak of our current socio-economic system, and I'm fairly certain that everyone in the White House is now well-aware and convinced of what's likely going to happen over the course of the next 10 years. I hope they're preparing for it right now. I believe the coming collapse of the capitalistic-democractic system is imminent, and America needs to very seriously start planning fo…

How about searching for new economic models. Are 200 year old models really relevant anymore?

In a way, they are. People haven't changed that much since then.

However, economic models need spring into existence from the ground up. They are emergent. The world is too complex for them to be designed by theorists. This is why base capitalism (not the complex beast it has become) works, as even without any pressure people start trading. USSR communism collapsed because it needs to be enforced from the top, and you can only keep up a lie for so long.

The same is true for our current zombie-capitalism. We do need to give new systems some room to form and grow, though... and not label it as EVIL communism/capitalism/someotherism too soon, as that will cause typical path lock-in.

Re: Average Is Over

#29

Post by rushabh »

Siri has changed the discussion about voice recognition and semantic search. Hard to imagine what will happen to all the call-centers in India if the use of this technology becomes more widespread. How many years are we away from this?

Re: Average Is Over

#30

Post by simonh »

dave_sullivan wrote: post #10

I've been thinking about this a lot lately. I think he's right about many things there: manufacturing jobs are leaving and not coming back. Automation is becoming more and more advanced, particularly if you factor advances in robotics and ml since 2006 or so. Things move faster and average just doesn't seem to cut it when you can manufacture excellence. Hell, lawyers and doctors will be next, how about faux ai that c…

>how about faux ai that can write simple web apps or come up with good designs?

A major class of workers that software has a tendency of replacing is programmers themselves. Bespoke solutions are replaced by what used to be called shrink-wrapped applications. In the web area, look at how services such as Squarespace replace bespoke sites by providing easy to use site design tools.

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