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Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

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Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#81

Post by InclinedPlane »

jarrett wrote: post #72

This is probably true for companies targeting casual users. Facebook and YouTube are great examples. But I can't see people switching to mobile for the bulk of their serious, work-oriented computing unless the hardware experience drastically changes. I would never program on an iPhone or iPad if a computer were available. Nor would I want to do serious video editing, or CAD. I probably wouldn't even want to type a bo…

Few people who use computers for work require the same degree of capability as programmers do. For most office work there are huge reasons why the mobile paradigm makes a ton of sense. I firmly believe that in 10-20 years it will be the dominant form of business computer.

That doesn't mean you can't use a mouse and keyboard as well. And that does make it similar to the form-factor of a laptop or a desktop but that misses the core advantages of tablet computers. The OS experience, the app. install and management experience, the portability advantages (tablets are vastly more portable than even a laptop), and the potential cost savings. Not to mention that it could easily be a different set of companies providing such systems in the future than the PC stalwarts of today (perhaps google, apple, samsung, and HTC instead of Microsoft, dell, and hp).

Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#82

Post by wazoox »

jbail wrote: post #32
bignoggins wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen the opposite. Almost everyone I know uses the native facebook app versus going to m.facebook.com. Most people only use a few websites/apps on their phones, and I think it's just simpler to tap on the app icon rather than start up mobile safari and type m.facebook.com.

These people have heard of bookmarks, right? You can bookmark a website and put the icon right on your home screen. I visit HN all the time from my phone, but I definitely don't type news.ycombinator.com every time.

Just a quick reality check: "normal people" don't know anything about bookmarks, and they know almost nothing of URLs. They simply search google every fscking time. And I'm talking of desktop usage here.

Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#83

Post by angrycoder »

jbail wrote: post #78
redthrowaway wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you might want to question your assumptions. The reason you want to do everything in the browser is probably twofold: 1) Inertia (that's the way I've been doing it for a decade, dagnammit), and 2) It's an easier context-switch. Rather than go back to the home screen, swipe over to the next app, and tap it, you just just type in the first few letters of the url, then select the site you want to go to from the…

It's not inertia, but it is an easier context-switch, IMO. If you made an "app browser" that allowed better searching (type the first letter and the app appears --- tap to open it), sorting (like bookmark folders) and easy navigation between apps, you'd be presenting me a much better experience than the current process of finding and switching between apps on your phone. That said, I still think pure mobile web could…

> If you made an "app browser" that allowed better searching (type the first letter and the app appears --- tap to open it)

The iPhone has this. Just swipe right on the home screen.

> and easy navigation between apps

On the iPhone, double tap the home button and you get a taskbar of your running apps.

> Why couldn't Apple allow mobile web apps to be sold in the app store? It's an icon that opens a web page. It could be as simple as that.

Phonegap allows you to bundle a html/javascript webapp as a native iPhone application. There are even hooks in there to access the camera, gps, etc.

Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#84

Post by jarrett »

InclinedPlane wrote: post #81
jarrett wrote: post #72

This is probably true for companies targeting casual users. Facebook and YouTube are great examples. But I can't see people switching to mobile for the bulk of their serious, work-oriented computing unless the hardware experience drastically changes. I would never program on an iPhone or iPad if a computer were available. Nor would I want to do serious video editing, or CAD. I probably wouldn't even want to type a bo…

Few people who use computers for work require the same degree of capability as programmers do. For most office work there are huge reasons why the mobile paradigm makes a ton of sense. I firmly believe that in 10-20 years it will be the dominant form of business computer. That doesn't mean you can't use a mouse and keyboard as well. And that does make it similar to the form-factor of a laptop or a desktop but that mi…

So in other words, mouse + keyboard + iOS/Android will become the dominant system for everyday office use, such as word processing and writings emails? I can believe that.

As you said, the fundamental difference at that point between mobile and traditional computers is the OS. But if that's the case, then I have to question how relevant the distinction is from a developer's point of view.

To cater to mouse + keyboard + iOS/Android users, we don't need to build native iOS apps. We can just as well build regular old web apps and ensure they work well for mouse + keyboard + iOS/Android. That's not very different from what we do today, except for the fact that we'd have to account for yet another set of screen sizes.

Therefore, as far as serious/business/professional apps are concerned, I don't foresee a major paradigm shift. More like a pressure to learn some new web dev techniques, such as responsive design.

Again, though, I don't claim this would hold true for consumer apps. Many of those will likely be used from an iPhone or an iPad without any external devices.

Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#85

Post by c1sc0 »

mckilljoy wrote: post #50

I'm sure most of those 94 minutes per day are playing Angry Birds and other mobile games. I don't expect we are going to see any new billion-dollar companies being founded over the next 10 years that primarily sell mobile games. There is plenty of mobile opportunity, but the big players are already fighting over the obvious stuff. I'm not convinced mobile has significantly more profitable hidden gems than consumer we…

You have data to back up those claims? I see plenty of people doing plenty of other things besides playing silly games on their mobile.

Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#86

Post by djbender »

ender7 wrote: post #55

Two things: 1. The author of this article clearly has money on one side of the issue since he's trying to sell a cross-device app development platform. 2. The data he supplies isn't broken down by usage type, so it's a little hard to analyze. What if 50% of the 'app' time is spent playing games? Or 20% of it is spent only in a couple of apps like Facebook? He's suggesting that native apps are supplanting web usage, b…

Thank you for the perspective.

Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#87

Post by rzbn »

jarcoal wrote: post #59
steder wrote: post #25

I think the article is buying into the notion that the web can never be as rich an experience as the native application. I think that the last few years of explosive growth in terms of cloud services and web applications have made it pretty clear that web applications are a viable alternative. Why won't web applications work for mobile devices as well? Is the argument simply that the app market is less crowded? Is a…

I don't think the web can ever be as fast moving as a native environment. That's one of the major downfalls with being compatible with all platforms.

For most apps the speed that the web provides is going to be sufficient however there are some resource intensive apps like games that will stay on the native environment. Just like the desktop os. Even games on the native environment is being challenged by OnLive.

Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#88

Post by diminish »

ender7 wrote: post #55

Two things: 1. The author of this article clearly has money on one side of the issue since he's trying to sell a cross-device app development platform. 2. The data he supplies isn't broken down by usage type, so it's a little hard to analyze. What if 50% of the 'app' time is spent playing games? Or 20% of it is spent only in a couple of apps like Facebook? He's suggesting that native apps are supplanting web usage, b…

I understand that some people like TV/Radio metrics; such as time spent; however web sites/mobile apps are programmable with multiple purposes where each have diverse usage scenarios than passively watching TV.

Comparing Minutes spent on apps or web sites may be a bit misleading; in this case why not put time spend on Office suites or Desktops on PCs too or me watching my Lisp code. Apps such as games, contents, utilities or web front ends have all different meanings to the users and with regard to monetization (ad or not). The same is true for web sites.

a. the time I spend with my utility apps are apples and oranges comparison to the time I spend reading HN on my Android.

b. Not all 'times spend` are monetizable, or monetizable in the same rate or way;

c. Mobile apps are used slower mainly due to small screen size, finger input.

d. Games are a peculiar category on their own.

Edit: that said; mobile has expanded our connected time to new places/times; toilet, elevator, waiting (queues), couch, TV-ad pauses...

Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#89

Post by robryan »

wazoox wrote: post #82
jbail wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These people have heard of bookmarks, right? You can bookmark a website and put the icon right on your home screen. I visit HN all the time from my phone, but I definitely don't type news.ycombinator.com every time.

Just a quick reality check: "normal people" don't know anything about bookmarks, and they know almost nothing of URLs. They simply search google every fscking time. And I'm talking of desktop usage here.

Disagree, I think most people know about bookmarks/ favorites, at least on a pc. They are pretty much as old as the Internet. Mobile I would agree.

Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#90

Post by robryan »

pg wrote: post #47
brador wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Paul, what are your thoughts on premium domain pricing? Are the days of super premium prices over?

You mean domains that cost hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars? I think those "days" never existed, in the sense that it has probably always been a mistake.

For things like stripe/ path I think the investment in a memorable domain might pay off. I'm sure it helped Dropbox after they got their one, although not sure of the price paid. I would agree on generic ones like business.com
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