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French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

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Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#601

Post by WalterBright »

lumost wrote: post #564
WalterBright wrote: post #435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the idea again that wealthy people hoard their money, and it must be liberated to benefit the economy. The fact is, their money is not stored in Scrooge McDuck cash vaults. It's all invested in the economy.

The money isn’t sitting in a vault - but it also isn’t necessarily being consumed. In order to leave the vault it must be invested or more typically loaned. As the vault earns interest, a dynamic can emerge that consumers must borrow progressively larger sums in order to avoid bankruptcy. This occurred in the Great Depression where inequality rose and in turn debt loads. The fed has papered over this problem by simpl…

> In order to leave the vault it must be invested or more typically loaned.

Which it is. All of it, except for the reserve requirement. The idea that wealthy people hoard money is simply not true. The money is put back to work in the economy.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#602

Post by WalterBright »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #516
WalterBright wrote: post #513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your thesis is the government consumption of the GDP has nothing to do with where the productivity improvements went?

You’re comparing decades of productivity going to capital to debt incurred within the last half decade (“Here's where the money went”). The US does have a lot of sovereign debt, no doubt, but that’s not why Labor isn’t seeing a greater share of the productivity gains since the 70s. A loss of collective labor power and 10% of the country owning 89% of public equities gets us here. To arrived at an improved end state,…

I presented a chart going back to 1970. It covers the time period in question. It shows an enormous increase in government per-person spending. Why do you think that has nothing to do with where did the money from the productivity increase go?

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#604

Post by notch898a »

gruez wrote: post #600
jjoonathan wrote: post #584

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When options are thin, hope commands a premium. See: lottery tickets. Would you give up planning for retirement just because all of the options were unreliable? I wouldn't, I'd pick the least bad and try anyway.

Except the linked article argues that in hunter gatherer societies, kids were a net drain even when their parents were approaching retirement, and in agricultural societies there were "retirement" options in the form of land ownership and financial instruments.

Some of the calculations they made were utterly bizarre. Like assuming the child wasn't paying anything forward until "retirement" of the parent. All adults being net positive is not the same as the elders not benefitting from in-kin capture of investments in a scheme that almost resembles taxation moving benefit upwards in in-kin seniority.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#605

Post by prakhar897 »

hungryforcodes wrote: post #508
atleastoptimal wrote: post #304

In the US at least, the original retirement age, set in 1935, was 65. The average life expectancy was 60. Today in the US it's 77.8. In France, it's 82. As populations age into a higher percentage of retirees, the system is forced to cope with more people who are purely consumers, and contribute nothing to the system. In a post-scarcity world, this would not be a problem, but currently with the oldest generations own…

But what will you say when you are 60 or 65? These people are not contributing during retirement, but HAVE contributed in the past. In fact people pay (especially in places like France) into a government retirement fund. And this happens over 20-40 years of work. This is a long time and if properly managed, should be fine. So people aren't just being given "free money", this is something that they have paid for and s…

The people should themselves be managing their retirement corpus. Some would become rich, some would be poor but in the end they won't take money off the taxpayers.

Instead they gave their money to governments who immediately consumed, mismanaged, gave it to themselves and while kicking the can down the road with cheap loans.

Now, current governments are left with old people with no money demanding benefits and young people getting taxed into poverty.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#606

Post by hedora »

jmoak3 wrote: post #537
atleastoptimal wrote: post #304

In the US at least, the original retirement age, set in 1935, was 65. The average life expectancy was 60. Today in the US it's 77.8. In France, it's 82. As populations age into a higher percentage of retirees, the system is forced to cope with more people who are purely consumers, and contribute nothing to the system. In a post-scarcity world, this would not be a problem, but currently with the oldest generations own…

This is summed up nicely. To add, simply take a look at the % of USA federal spending that goes to Medicare and Social Security, which are benefits for the over 65 population. It's 1/3rd. 1/3rd of Americans are also over the age of 55, which will push that number higher. We are consuming our young. As a 29 year old, unless technology advances radically and I have positions in the companies controlling it, I will not…

Social Security isn’t federal spending. People pay into the trust fund, then withdraw when they retire. It is set up so that it cannot run a deficit.

However, congress raided the social security fund, spent the money, and now they are deflecting blame away from themselves by claiming the system was insolvent by design.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#607

Post by lokar »

Panzer04 wrote: post #569
cmehdy wrote: post #497

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not taking money that otherwise would be taken absolutely is giving money. Let me know if the government decides to absolve you of all taxes if you don't think at the end of your year that you've been given money. Also that's conveniently the narrative that Macron's party would adopt were it the other way (read: when they "give" a one-off cheque to students or poor people). Accounting tricks have broad shoulders to t…

I agree - not taxing something ordinarily taxed is very much in the vein of "giving" money. I'm a little surprised at the disagreement, but I guess it depends on a persons point of view.

The mainstream terminology is spending through the tax code.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#608

Post by grecy »

fleddr wrote: post #355
bjourne wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At some point we have to rethink what "contributing to the system" means. What are web developers designing ads for online casinos contributing?

Great comment. The status quo is so bizarre. Human life has no inherent value unless it makes continuous contributions to "the economy". It would be economically most efficient to drop dead on the day you retire. Thanks, human! All of this to keep a machine running that wrecks the planet and everything living on it, including ourselves. Probably some 50% of the economy is pure bullshit that nobody asked for, just kee…

> Human life has no inherent value unless it makes continuous contributions to "the economy".

What I love most of all about this is the fact "the economy" has only existed for a few hundred years.

I wonder how modern humans found purpose for the previous 199,700 years?

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#609

Post by grecy »

jackvalentine wrote: post #312
BadCookie wrote: post #253

These stats are for the U.S., but one thing that usually get ignored in these retirement discussions is just how massively life expectancy depends on income level and sex: http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/health/ Raising the retirement pension age screws over the poor, especially poor men. Perhaps retirement age should be tied to income/wealth somehow ... and maybe even sex (as controversial as I imagine that w…

An aboriginal man in Australia is suing on exactly that basis - he has a lower life expectancy and so wants access to the pension earlier. https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/article/uncle-dennis-is-taking-t...

I've always wondered about suing the government for raising the retirement age. They're changing the deal we agreed to, without my consent. If I had known the full extent of the altered deal (i.e. no retirement till 69), I would have made different decisions from the start.

If I have a 20 year mortgage with the bank I can't just change the terms so that the deal suits me better. Why can the government do that with my retirement age, with zero repercussions?

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#610

Post by midoridensha »

jonfw wrote: post #496
ticviking wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly how America became America.

Except for the mainland of America has things like warm weather and days of uniform length

It was also a big, dangerous wilderness when Europeans first arrived. It wasn't a place you could just go travel to, get a nice cushy job, buy a nice house, and live a comfortable life.
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