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Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

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Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#52
post #41

People use their mobile phone for apps more than they do for browsing the web? Really? No shit. Show me that people are using their mobile apps more than they're using their desktop/laptop browsers and you'll have something to write about.

Well, that is what the article claims, they compare their own stats with comScore and Alexa stats. But I think the conclusion is indeed flawed as the Flurry stats include people with smart phones with apps on it that use Flurry, which is just a subset of all people using the Internet. They should include the absolute numbers to make the story complete. But yeah, there is a strong trend we can't deny :)

Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#53
post #31
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You assume of course that there will never be a device powerful enough to match desktop. Should I remind you that the chip in the that SIm card is in fact the same cpu chip that was used in Apple IIs? In next ten years you will see design,programming, etc done on tablets

I think a large part of it is also form factor. My phone could have the power of 3 super computers, but i'd still choose my laptop over it. I prefer a larger screen, and a real keyboard. For a mobile device to replace my desktop/laptop user interfaces + form factors are going to need some rapid advances.

Foldable keyboards and dirt cheap projection technologies could mitigate the form factor issues. How about holographic displays? Or huds?

Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#54

I think it's important to keep something straight here. If you are going for the consumer market and some parts of the B2B market then yes mobile will keep advancing. But you aren't going to do the design, programming, your taxes or any other labor intensive work or creation on your mobile. So yes we probably underestimate it, but if we believe in that, then we are most probably also underestimating how much both des…

Agreed. And further, the longevity of larger interfaces is also a matter of the overall quality and feel of the UX:

A phone sized interface will probably always feel constricting and confining when trying to tackle anything complicated. (And a good part of mobile UX is preventing and alleviating this feeling of claustrophobia, IMO.) It's extraordinarily difficult to cram the full neuro-kinesthetic experience of a complex task into a playing card sized screen; we're more comfortable interacting with things that are "body sized".

But whatever the backend is (and remember, your users don't give a hoot where the computing is done), certainly large sized interfaces are not going to disappear. What is most likely going on is a re-centering of the bell curve: more people will have a smaller screen as their primary interface to the net/web, and larger interfaces will accommodate more complex behaviors and tasks as well as group activities.

Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#55
Two things:

1. The author of this article clearly has money on one side of the issue since he's trying to sell a cross-device app development platform.

2. The data he supplies isn't broken down by usage type, so it's a little hard to analyze. What if 50% of the 'app' time is spent playing games? Or 20% of it is spent only in a couple of apps like Facebook? He's suggesting that native apps are supplanting web usage, but the graph actually shows web usage going up. So, are apps complementing or cannibalizing web usage? Hard to tell.

Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#56
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen the opposite. Almost everyone I know uses the native facebook app versus going to m.facebook.com. Most people only use a few websites/apps on their phones, and I think it's just simpler to tap on the app icon rather than start up mobile safari and type m.facebook.com.

These people have heard of bookmarks, right? You can bookmark a website and put the icon right on your home screen. I visit HN all the time from my phone, but I definitely don't type news.ycombinator.com every time.

No, I doubt most of them have heard of bookmarks, at least not on their phone. I bet if you took a survey right now of iPhone owners, maybe 10% would have any idea what you're talking about.

Pure speculation, but I wouldn't be surprised.

Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen the opposite. Almost everyone I know uses the native facebook app versus going to m.facebook.com. Most people only use a few websites/apps on their phones, and I think it's just simpler to tap on the app icon rather than start up mobile safari and type m.facebook.com.

The "native" facebook app is just an html5 webapp believe it or not.

I believe it has both native as well as HTML5 elements, just like the LinkedIn app.

Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen the opposite. Almost everyone I know uses the native facebook app versus going to m.facebook.com. Most people only use a few websites/apps on their phones, and I think it's just simpler to tap on the app icon rather than start up mobile safari and type m.facebook.com.

The "native" facebook app is just an html5 webapp believe it or not.

I have no trouble believing it, which is a big part of why it has such terrible ratings and reviews now, as compared to when it was native.

And from what I understand, Facebook has done a lot of significant engineering to try and improve the performance while keeping it mostly HTML5.

Mobile web apps aren't ready.

Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#59
post #25

I think the article is buying into the notion that the web can never be as rich an experience as the native application. I think that the last few years of explosive growth in terms of cloud services and web applications have made it pretty clear that web applications are a viable alternative. Why won't web applications work for mobile devices as well? Is the argument simply that the app market is less crowded? Is a…

I don't think the web can ever be as fast moving as a native environment. That's one of the major downfalls with being compatible with all platforms.

Re: Mobile shift: You’ve probably underestimated just how big this is

#60
Remember a time when someone talking about the Internet wasn't necessarily talking about the World Wide Web?

Fifteen years ago we were bitching about all the startups abandoning 16 bits worth of open and unfettered TCP port address space for the walled gardens of port 80 and this new-fangled HTTP protocol.

Viva la (r)evoluzione!

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