Live data from Hacker News

French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

cbc.ca

161–170 of 835 posts

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#161

> "We haven't been heard or listened to...." Maybe they have been heard and listened too and the democratically elected government of the people disagrees. Just because you don't get your way doesn't mean you haven't been listened to. > "We are using the only means we have left: it's the hard strike ... we are not going to give up." This is the part where the petulant child that doesn't get what it wants threatens to…

Without commenting on the French government specifically (which I haven't followed closely):

Consider the fact that politicians can be elected and then break the promises they made during the campaign. The electoralist response to this is 'well you can vote them out next time,.' But that ignores the cost of the damage that can occur during the interval, plus it's not clear how the populace is supposed to hold other politicians to account - to the point that there is a general expectation of politicians being dishonest and mendacious.

Really, in what other job are you only subject to review every few years and if people don't like what you're doing in the meantime you can reply with complete BS, often overtly?

Democratic elections are a good thing, but they are not the be-all and end-all of politics. Strikes and boycotts are absolutely a legitimate form of political expression, in which labor or consumer market participants coordinate their economic activity to obtain political leverage. If you won't tolerate anything other than elections, North Korea has those.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#162
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main difference is that in the pension fund model, you (at least in theory) don't need the next generation to pay: you save now so you get money later. In the more common model, you pay for the previous generation hoping that the next one will pay for you, and you need intergenerational agreement on what's a fair amount. You don't need that with the fund model, as you (usually) agree & know beforehand how much yo…

> you save now so you get money later. How do you save labor for later? Current retirees need young folks to do the work they cannot do, and thus those young folks are paying in today. When those young folks retire they will be relying on even younger folks to do the work for them. If there are not enough younger folks to do that work, the money saved between generations will become relatively worthless. Thought anot…

How exactly does the same amount of labor need doing when there will fewer people who need anything in the near future? You seem to be saying more labor per person is necessary to satisfy this “need.”

That doesn’t seem beneficial to workers as a whole. I thought innovation was supposed to benefit everyone? Where’s the hole in this logic?

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#163

The idea of relying on the government for your retirement is insane to me, for exactly this reason. You're willing to bet your life that the government is always going to do right by you? Save your own money. If Social Security exists by the time I retire, great. I'm planning as if it won't.

There are very few if any institutions that sophisticated investors trust to pay back money more than the U.S. government. Banks go bankrupt, gold changes value, cash gets stolen. Seems like the U.S. government is the best option.

Only because the debt is denominated in USD, so the government can always print it to pay it back. It’s not like it’s the most fiscally responsible government around

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#164

One big challenge I see with the whole business about pension reform (and government spending in fact) as a public debate is that two sides are talking on totally different planes. In France, and someday very soon, here in the US. And the public in a certain sense, will problematically have to end up voting a simple yes/no on extremely complex topics which are incentivized to push buttons on single issues. cf. Brexit…

Pardon my language but where the f** is all this money going? Is it even humanly possible for a group of regular joes to audit where all the money is going? I think thats the first thing that HAS to happen, a clear transparent audit down to the penny. As a coder, this kind of complexity just drives me up the wall.

Also on a side note, I love how sneaky that NY Times article leaves out the option to cut defense. After all we can NEVER reduce our military industrial complex, only cut everything else to the bone.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every single pension system has the working population pay for the retirees. Where do you think the money comes from? Thin air? Any increase in the value of pension funds (for example) is coming from the workers.

And it wasn't a problem when the working age population was always increasing... but when it no longer is (as is the case in much of Europe) it becomes problematic.

> when it no longer is (as is the case in much of Europe) it becomes problematic.

Not necessarily. What matters here is whether production matches demand. If the proportion of people in the workforce declines, but their productivity increases by the same amount (which isn't far from being the case in Europe) you don't have a problem.

And even that is too simple. As the population ages, demand changes. It increases im certain domains (health) so productivity increase might not suffice.

...but then of course the productivity of older people declines too, together with their health (higher unemployment, more sick leaves), so there is a lower and lower ROI as you put these people in the workforce. And then making people work longer accelerates the health decline, and so increases the demand. Except those people die younger on average, lowering the demand.

So it's a supply and demand issue, but not quite a supply and demand of workers. It's a complicated economic problem. All of this is talked about in the French debate, which is a lot more subtle than the loud vociferations reported in the news make it out to be.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does that work? The 401(k) providers are lending out the securities that their customers own?

No, 401k admins do not own the securities, the employees do. The comment is incorrect in implying the government bailed out the administrators, but the government did backstop the price the securities (the stock market) itself. Hence why I think an SP500 investment is risk free on a >3 year timeline.

[deleted]

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#167

The idea of relying on the government for your retirement is insane to me, for exactly this reason. You're willing to bet your life that the government is always going to do right by you? Save your own money. If Social Security exists by the time I retire, great. I'm planning as if it won't.

> You're willing to bet your life that the government is always going to do right by you?

Hear, hear, especially given the historical priors : (hint: across a generation-sized time spans, governments never keep their promises. Why should they, they usually are in power for decades at most).

And yes, relying on governments to handle your retirement money is completely insane, but the vast majority of folks in e.g. the EU have drunk that kool-aid even though it was guaranteed to fail since day one.

Retirement plans the way they work in Western Europe were always an absolute con, very much like a ponzi scheme (new players pay for the earlier players).

When the young, working population was vastly larger than the old retiree population (because the retirement age was designed so that most people died before reaching it), the government milked their working young for all they were worth.

Now that the age pyramid has inverted (large retiree population, few working youngs), there simply isn't enough income generated by the young to pay for the old and retirement income is paid using debt.

What a freak show.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#168

The idea of relying on the government for your retirement is insane to me, for exactly this reason. You're willing to bet your life that the government is always going to do right by you? Save your own money. If Social Security exists by the time I retire, great. I'm planning as if it won't.

If it doesn't, well, American society has already bred the perfect group of shock-wave troops: a bunch of dead-eyed, lives paused, waiting for an apocalypse that never came Gen Xrs who will dub their explosive-laden waistcoat's "retirement vests." They're tech-savvy, they've waited for killer bees, land invasions, acid rain, nuclear war, and watched the low-risk sex of their elders transform into a high-stakes gamble at a lingering death. They remember 9/11 and Ruby Ridge. They won't factor into any threat profile because everyone forgets they even exist. They waited dutifully for the Boomers to retire only for 2008 to put a big hold on that, and the Millennials just climbed over them on the ladder. If that quote about "Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats" rang true for a group, that's the one I'd pick. Probably the last bunch you'd want to ditch Social Security on.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#169

The idea of relying on the government for your retirement is insane to me, for exactly this reason. You're willing to bet your life that the government is always going to do right by you? Save your own money. If Social Security exists by the time I retire, great. I'm planning as if it won't.

There are very few if any institutions that sophisticated investors trust to pay back money more than the U.S. government. Banks go bankrupt, gold changes value, cash gets stolen. Seems like the U.S. government is the best option.

https://www.officialdata.org/us/inflation/1800?amount=1

I'd love to have to repay my debts with those conditions.

Re: French workers protest plan to increase retirement age

#170

The idea of relying on the government for your retirement is insane to me, for exactly this reason. You're willing to bet your life that the government is always going to do right by you? Save your own money. If Social Security exists by the time I retire, great. I'm planning as if it won't.

The government issuing the money can reduce the purchasing power of “your” money anytime it wants, and most governments do every year.

Your savings wouldn't be all USD or bonds. It would include stocks, commodities, investments in other countries, maybe precious metals and crypto.
Post reply on HN