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I am curious what the dominant opinion is in China regarding what the population of Taiwan wants. That the majority of Taiwanese want to become Chinese? That it doesn’t matter what the Taiwan population wants because China has the right to claim it?
All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong. If China did not do what they did in Hong Kong, Taiwan may be headed to some kind on unification. Now, they would be crazy to even entertain that thought. This issue lies directly on China and no one else. If I had a say in Taiwan, I would announce it is now a independent Country.
Then you have war, and China attacks Taiwan and probably conquers it. What did your announcement gain?
I believe pretty much every recent US wargame about Taiwan has ended in a US loss, and the US military has only recently started to reconfigure itself to fight great-power wars again and it is far from done. Also, the US has already emptied its existing stockpiles to help Ukraine, and the logistics to get war material to Taiwan are much more challenging. China also gets to learn from Russia's mistakes, and it would also be foolish to assume China will be as incompetent as Russia proved to be.
Basically, such an announcement would be a "Go directly to jail. Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200," move on Taiwan's part.
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Well, the biggest reason is that Taiwan already has domestic nuclear refinement capabilities and likely could make a nuke themselves in a couples months if they needed to. They don't need to do that quite yet though, as despite the media panic, an invasion of Taiwan is years, is not decades away from being attempted. China is a real threat, but it's more over the long term, than any immediate concerns.
most of the (mainland) Chinese students I talk to tell me that they believe an invasion will happen 'sooner than later'.
Seems consistent enough with decades
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If any state is being propagandized into secession it's Florida right now. They, however, find themselves in a race with mother nature to see who will remove them from the continental US first.
The point here is that this is the equivalent of what US is doing, and something US would never tolerate itself. Just imagine for a second if China set up equivalent of NED and USAID, started funding political campaigns in Texas or Florida, and so on. This is what US is currently doing. US is blatantly interfering in Chinese internal politics and violating Chinese sovereignty while acting as if US has some god given…
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Taiwan will reveal them at the very last moment when war is imminent. If war is still preventable showing the nukes will just escalate things.
> Taiwan will reveal them at the very last moment when war is imminent. Ok, they reveal them. What is next? Nukes are not magic. They are just weapons. What do you think would happen once they are “revealed”? What delivery mechanism are you proposing? Should they be aimed counter-force or counter-value? (Meaning are they trying to shoot the chinese nuclear launchers or are they lobbing them into chinese cities?) How…
I'd wager that if you're amassing forces to conduct an invasion and midway through you discovered your target has nukes pointed at you, the very least you'd do is rethink your strategy and put a pause on operations.
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That was Taiwanese politics in the 90’s. It doesn’t reflect current party policy.
As far as I'm aware this is still the official party line of the KMT. It's just that now the DPP (their opposition) is in power.
I’ve never heard of this stance. I’ve only heard of your stance on Reddit and Twitter within the past two years.
The elephant in the room is that Taiwan is a Chinese province and Taiwan's legal standing is not in question [1]. This is the position held by the UN, and it's the fundamental basis for having diplomatic relations between US and China per Potsdam Proclamation [2] that was signed 77 years ago between China, the US & the UK. This position has never officially changed. And here's what US State Department says on their o…
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Taiwan is only 200km away from mainland china. You don't need ICBM.
They are more difficult to intercept, though.
All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong. If China did not do what they did in Hong Kong, Taiwan may be headed to some kind on unification. Now, they would be crazy to even entertain that thought. This issue lies directly on China and no one else. If I had a say in Taiwan, I would announce it is now a independent Country.
Hong Kong was leased to Britain till 1997. Very different case. As for Taiwan, if they declared independence it will be an act of war. Don't forget that US protects Taiwan on the basis it does not declare itself a sovereign country. Also, don't forget this is the official map of the Republic of China (Taiwan): https://i.redd.it/jbyegko5mkc21.jpg
>The colony faced an uncertain future as the end of the New Territories lease approached, and Governor Murray MacLehose raised the question of Hong Kong's status with Deng Xiaoping in 1979.[84] Diplomatic negotiations with China resulted in the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration, in which the United Kingdom agreed to transfer the colony in 1997 and China would guarantee Hong Kong's economic and political systems for 50 years after the transfer.