Always amazes me how YC and PG get zero mention on housing threads here for AirBnB destroying communities and housing worldwide. I've totally lost all respect for their "fuck the rules" approach. PG, this is what you get when you turn every human need into a VC backed hunger games cesspit. Congratulations.
Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake
851–860 of 1001 posts
Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake
#852Earlier quoted context omitted.
A lot of jobs are in high cost of living areas. The reason they're high cost of living is because there are jobs there, the demand to live there is high, and they haven't built nearly enough housing. Some bay area municipalities have essentially not added any housing in the last 50 years. They made it illegal, because incumbent property owners don't want more people to be allowed to live there. And it's not just the…
I would rather Google and Facebook and the other mega-hire companies would build up outside the bay area, rather than continuing to pack more people in.
The Bay Area isn’t remotely “packed in.” It’s good that the state of California is starting to take steps to prevent its current inhabitants from pulling the ladder up behind them.
Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake
#853Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hence in many countries in Europe, e.g. in the Nordics, there's one simple way to gradually reduce prices: reduce the supply of mortgages for more expensive housing. The state backstops most mortgages, but by the same mechanism (or with the help of the banking regulator) also sets the rules on how to give them. When prices get too hot, the regulators simply decrease, or refuse to increase, the nominal amount of the m…
The more expensive housing in the US is famous for all-cash transactions so I don't think this works.
Do the people doing those "all-cash" transactions have zero liabilities towards banks? I doubt it.
Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake
#854Earlier quoted context omitted.
A lot of jobs are in high cost of living areas. The reason they're high cost of living is because there are jobs there, the demand to live there is high, and they haven't built nearly enough housing. Some bay area municipalities have essentially not added any housing in the last 50 years. They made it illegal, because incumbent property owners don't want more people to be allowed to live there. And it's not just the…
I would rather Google and Facebook and the other mega-hire companies would build up outside the bay area, rather than continuing to pack more people in.
They are. Durham, NC; Pittsburgh, PH; Atlanta. They already have facilities or will grow. Remote will also have an impact. Housing prices will still grow with more tech jobs, though certain areas can absorb that impact better than others. The remote push from COVID also drew a lot of housing increases across the country.
Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake
#855Earlier quoted context omitted.
This astonishes me about the US real estate market and is something I was only educated to on HN in the last week or so. I had absolutely no idea that 30 year fixed mortgages were not only widely available but the common standard there.
I just love this quote from Sid Verma: "A lot of Americans are bragging that in their country they can get a fixed mortgage for 30 years. But it's worth remembering that for cultural and historic reasons, a lot of Europeans choose to reject socialism." https://twitter.com/_SidVerma/status/1575185906218442752?s=2... Note that the mortgages aren't even fixed rate, since you can replace them with a lower rate mortgage i…
> Nobody will sell a mortgage like that if their goal is profit (other than to hand off to the US government).
Almost one third of the MBS outstanding are held by the Fed - but that means that more than two thirds are held by someone else.
Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake
#856> Meanwhile, renters are desperate. They’re begging for housing prices not just to slow, but to fall. I have a friend who is a head chef at a decently popular bar and restaurant on Broadway in Capitol Hill, Seattle (very trendy part of town if you aren't familiar, steep commercial rent). He lives in a 400 sq ft studio and is barely, barely making it from one paycheck to the next. I am sitting on a 2.6% interest rate…
My dad worked 33 years as a bridge builder. I would meet random people who would tell me they were in awe of his skill. It took me 3 years or so out of a community college with an IT degree to match his pay.
Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake
#857Earlier quoted context omitted.
Japan has plenty of societal ills, but at least Tokyo has been doing amazing on this front.
Every time I see this I have to laugh. If you live in Tokyo, I'd love to hear your anecdotal experience. I have stayed and visited japan for the last 35 years, and find all of the "Tokyo is so affordable and buildable" is hilarious. The breathless articles I read about it leave out fundamental aspects (the incredible density, the absolute destruction 70 years ago, the corruption [especially in Shinjuku], the size of…
So Tokyo isn't affordable and livable because it's dense?
I lived in Japan so I understand where you're coming from...but the fact that "fleeters" are even a thing should tell you they are doing something right with housing prices. Can you imagine an American person in Seattle deciding to just work 30 hours at a conbini and being able to rent a studio?
A couple things:
1. Sure, Tokyo is dense and can be kinda soul crushing...but the option of having a roof even at incredibly low income is better than none.
2. Zoning to allow residential to be on top of business, and allowing smaller apartments and 2 very obvious things that make it literally "easier to build" in Japan than the US.
This isn't even just a Tokyo thing. When I lived in a pretty nice suburb in Okinawa a lot of my friends were paying like 300-400$ usd for rent, and I rarely ever saw homeless people. I live in Honolulu now and there's homeless everywhere and good luck finding any studio under $1300. There's a pretty obvious difference.
Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake
#858It's practically impossible for US society to get out of treating housing as an investment. Americans believe in home ownership as evidence of prudence (hard work + savings), acumen (housing always goes up so it's smart to buy a house!), and sense of security and achievement. These ideas aren't going to change any time soon. That's the ideological component. Home-owners also protect their investments because they're…
Also, aesthetically, you have to admit, most YIMBY cities are ugly AF compared to NIMBY cities. Aesthetics are very important to human beings; people love pretty things.
I couldn't possibly disagree more. _Nothing_ is less attractive than sprawl. Rural areas are beautiful. Dense cities are beautiful. The inbetweens are ugly.
Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake
#859> While the rich are more likely to own homes, tons of middle class and poor people also bought homes and planned their lives under the assumption that housing prices would go up. Tanking housing prices would destroy their trust in the system that they bet everything on. This is pretty much the crux of it. High housing prices could be "fixed" almost overnight, but for almost every citizen of the first world, their ho…
> This is pretty much the crux of it. High housing prices could be "fixed" almost overnight This is a crazy thing to state with almost no justification. How could housing prices be fixed overnight? Please don't say "zoning changes." Plenty of places without zoning issues have really expensive real estate.
What's an example of a place without "zoning issues" with really expensive real estate?
Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake
#860Earlier quoted context omitted.
In a well-functioning city, a head chef should be able to comfortably afford to rent a 2-3 bedroom apartment within walking distance of their restaurant. They should not be spending 1/3rd of their income and only getting a studio out of it.
You can, just move out of Capitol Hill in Seattle which is one of the most desirable areas in one of the most desirable cities located in one of the most desirable geographies in the wealthiest country on earth. This place looks nice! https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2742-Lincoln-St-NE-Minnea...
I can afford to live in Seattle because I make more than a head chef. I would like my city to be affordable to head chefs, since I have friends who are. Seattle is a very nice place and I would like it to be easier for my friends to live here and not be forced to move away, since it makes the city worse and I'd rather the city become an even more desirable place in years to come.