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Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

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Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#61
post #31

The elephant in the room is that Taiwan is a Chinese province and Taiwan's legal standing is not in question [1]. This is the position held by the UN, and it's the fundamental basis for having diplomatic relations between US and China per Potsdam Proclamation [2] that was signed 77 years ago between China, the US & the UK. This position has never officially changed. And here's what US State Department says on their o…

What is your point?

What part of my comment is unclear to you?

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#62
post #24
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only reason PRC would invade Taiwan is if Washington started installing ICBM silos there. In which case they would just knock out that infrastructure with long-range strikes.

Taiwan is only 200km away from mainland china. You don't need ICBM.

They are more difficult to intercept, though.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#63
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan will reveal them at the very last moment when war is imminent. If war is still preventable showing the nukes will just escalate things.

> Taiwan will reveal them at the very last moment when war is imminent. Ok, they reveal them. What is next? Nukes are not magic. They are just weapons. What do you think would happen once they are “revealed”? What delivery mechanism are you proposing? Should they be aimed counter-force or counter-value? (Meaning are they trying to shoot the chinese nuclear launchers or are they lobbing them into chinese cities?) How…

You detonate one over open waters and tell China to back down.

If they do, problem solved. If they don't, at that stage it probably didn't hurt.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#65
post #3

All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong. If China did not do what they did in Hong Kong, Taiwan may be headed to some kind on unification. Now, they would be crazy to even entertain that thought. This issue lies directly on China and no one else. If I had a say in Taiwan, I would announce it is now a independent Country.

> I would announce it is now a independent Country.

I am disappointed to see HN devolve into armchair general territory. In this specific case, the constitution ruling over Taiwan is the Constitution of Republic of China adopted in 1946 in Nanjing, before the PRC was a thing.

In general most of Taiwan does not believe it needs to do anything to "proclaim" their independence, only a tiny minority want to change the constitution (not just an amendment, the name of the constitution itself), which would be rather difficult on almost all levels..

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#66
does anyone know of a betting/futures market where one can put a wager on this happening or not by a certain date?

the rhetoric in the west has gotten so intense in this area that i'm feeling like talking about it online is pointless - i'd rather put my money down.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#67
post #13
post #7

What I don't get is that to invade Taiwan, China needs a large amount of ships and cargo planes, both of which seem very vulnerable to modern missiles (as the Russian army found out in Ukraine). Do the chinese have a solution for that?

The only reason PRC would invade Taiwan is if Washington started installing ICBM silos there. In which case they would just knock out that infrastructure with long-range strikes.

> The only reason PRC would invade Taiwan is if Washington started installing ICBM silos there.

That would be too late, by definition, for China to invade. The US would likely be very wary of letting their missiles fall into enemy hands.

The PRC don't have a huge amount of time to take Taiwan. Their median age at 2020 was 37.5, their projected median age in 2030 is 42.7. For every two years that passes, their current demographic trajectory suggests their median age will grow by 1 year.

Unless they wish to fight an "old man" war, with all the societal tensions that arise from essentially sending the only grandchild of four grandparents to their death+, then the PRC need to hurry up and take Taiwan to allow them the force projection into the deep pacific.

Otherwise the Chinese century will be delayed another 100 years (or probably longer).

+Or the only great-grandchild of eight great-grandparents

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#68
post #31

The elephant in the room is that Taiwan is a Chinese province and Taiwan's legal standing is not in question [1]. This is the position held by the UN, and it's the fundamental basis for having diplomatic relations between US and China per Potsdam Proclamation [2] that was signed 77 years ago between China, the US & the UK. This position has never officially changed. And here's what US State Department says on their o…

> The elephant in the room is that Taiwan is a Chinese province and Taiwan's legal standing is not in question [1].

I believe you haven't read the link you yourself posted.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#69
post #31

The elephant in the room is that Taiwan is a Chinese province and Taiwan's legal standing is not in question [1]. This is the position held by the UN, and it's the fundamental basis for having diplomatic relations between US and China per Potsdam Proclamation [2] that was signed 77 years ago between China, the US & the UK. This position has never officially changed. And here's what US State Department says on their o…

You might be interested to know that the status of the sovereignty of Ukraine was not in question at any point right up until the very second that Putin said the Kyiv government was a Nazi government, and invaded. Russia itself was a signatory to the accord that guaranteed the territorial integrity of Ukraine, yet here we are.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#70
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It wasn't about "taking orders", and it had nothing to do with the British. The CCP broke promises they'd made to the people of Hong Kong.

The opposite, HK broke the promise it made to PRC by dragging out implementation of NSL that was always in PRC legal perview to unilaterally implement. The reality is PRC demonstrated stupid patience by letting the HK, the spyhub of Asian operate for 20 years under state of national security exception that any other sovereign would not tolerate. HKers literally had the carte blanche to commit treason (and did), so reasonab for PRC to close that legal loophole after putting up with it for 20 years.

E over post limit

>You can't commit treason to a country no never agreed to join.

As if they have a say in the matter. British Crown handed them over to PRC and turned them into Chinese citizens. Ergo they can commit treason the second they formally draw breath on Chinese soil. Law finally catching up so said treason can be prosecuted, like any sensible national security framework.

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