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Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

economist.com

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Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#281

Post by dang »

shapefrog wrote: post #190
LeonB wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Before I answer that I’d be interested to know if you have ever met any people? And secondly, do you have any compassion? Because it seems like the answer to one or the other might be “no”, in which case you’re going to struggle to understand any answer I can provide.

I can safely answer yes and yes and still laugh at someone for taking their life savings to the casino and putting it all on red. If it came up red they would be telling me they were a financial genius who had unlocked the secret to riches.

Please don't respond to a bad comment by breaking the site guidelines yourself. It only makes things worse.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#282

Post by lordfrito »

tracerbulletx wrote: post #279
lordfrito wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we have a very good chance of avoiding a recession Not sure that's the case, I work in RV, which is a leading indicator for recession and recovery. RV volumes have been getting hammered for the last 8 months. OEM mfg numbers are down over 50% year on year. [1] Sure it's just one small segment of the overall economy, but things are getting strange out there. [1] https://rv-pro.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Shipment…

You really think that it's not just that the RV surge was another COVID phenomenon? The same thing is happening with the bike market.

You are correct that COVID was responsible for a huge boom in RV. In fact, 2021 was biggest year ever for RV. The numbers speak for themselves. [1]

However volumes this year are projected to be in the low 300k range. [2] Also these projections seem to be getting revised lower every month. These are numbers the industry hasn't seen since 2014. So we're not returning to pre-COVID levels (record shipments in 500k range in 2017 and 2018).

The industry is being cut in half (at least) right now. And the drop is predicted to be long (we're already 6 months in, and the articles are saying this will last until at least the end of 2023). There's something deeper going on here. I think that something deeper is a recession.

Not saying I have all the answers. But from the angle I'm sitting at this looks a lot like the decline seen after the housing bubble and 2008 crisis.

YMMV

[1] https://www.rvia.org/historical-rv-data

[2] https://www.rvia.org/rv-roadsigns-quarterly-forecast

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#283

Post by astrange »

diceduckmonk wrote: post #174
astrange wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not having a permanent place to be during the 9-5PM, whether that is school or work, is a badge of shame in Japanese society. …in some social classes. What are the freeters and retirees doing? Night workers? > This is one reason why, quantitatively atleast, Japan has one of the lowest productivity rates of developer countries. Everyone has to appear working diligently, regardless if they've past the point of produc…

> Night workers? Do you mean nightshift workers or mizu shobai workers? If you are talking about nightshift workers, then that's just a matter of semantics (9-5PM == full time employment, even if that means two part time jobs ). As for mizu shobai workers, I think would it be disingenous to suggest this is somehow more honorable and respected by society and older generations/parents than saying being a certified prof…

> Do you mean nightshift workers or mizu shobai workers? If you are talking about nightshift workers, then that's just a matter of semantics (9-5PM == full time employment, even if that means two part time jobs ).

Yes, I meant literally night workers. They might sleep through the day but don't always, so they can look unemployed.

I don't know any fuzoku workers to ask them about it. I do know several bar owners and freelancers, so that's what I was mostly thinking about.

> Even from Wikipedia, the negative perception from Mass Media and society is clearly laid out, so bringing up freeters and attitudes towards them only furthers my claims.

Well my question was more like, what do _they_ think about each other? I agree the media judges them.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#284

Post by thephyber »

eftychis wrote: post #278
thephyber wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> what happened in the 70s Do you mean the early 1970s when the US moved off the gold standard and there was a massive oil shock? Or the late 1970s when inflation made an attempt for a runaway spiral? > get lower and things resume as normal The last few years (2008-present) have been anything but “normal”. The Fed has been full throttle on the lowest interest rate for years and Quantitative Easing / asset purchase pr…

Offering a reply as it seems my comment was perceived incorrectly and I can not unfortunately edit it. My wording was perhaps a bit too nuanced. (Again this is my opinion, and I might be wrong. I appreciate your opinion. (And other readers' opinion.)) a) You assume that me saying "best case" if we continue as is, is a good case scenario -- from my point of view it is not. Which is what I am expressing. We both agree…

Very thorough rollout. Thanks!

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#285

Post by mym1990 »

tempsy wrote: post #233
mym1990 wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It depends on a person's financial situation, from my understanding: if you have a lot of debt(which the average USA household does), you benefit greatly the more inflation goes up. If you have money sitting in the bank, you're basically getting eaten alive. If you have assets, they typically should be tracking inflation somewhat(real estate, some stock categories, TIPS, etc...). People will be in between any of the…

how is a saver getting eaten alive when high yield savings accounts and short term t-bills are paying 5% holding cash is paying something for the first time in more than a decade

Because inflation was still anywhere from 6-9% on average, but was higher than that for things like housing, healthcare, education, food, and transportation. Holding cash is not "paying" anything, even though you can't see it happen, the purchase power of that cash has deteriorated massively in the past 3 years.

I personally have a hard time going out to a restaurant and getting a 2 person meal for less than say 30-40$. Car market is absolutely through the roof. Housing market, although cooling slightly, is still through the roof. Our base rent went up 15% last year. Gas is now double in my area.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#286

Post by [deleted] »

acuozzo wrote: post #261
gabythenerd wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I promise it is quite possible for a nation to banish unemployment but still have a majority of people struggling to get by. You can always end up having a bunch of low paying jobs that don't allow for a good standard of living. Everyone will be employed but I'm sure no one will end up enjoying that.

> You can always end up having a bunch of low paying jobs that don't allow for a good standard of living. Indeed, but this will gradually kill all but the most essential industries. "Consumers" won't have the funds to "consume" and the 21M US citizens with a net worth of $1M or more won't pick up the slack. 21M people don't purchase 15 Gameboys each when they go to the store. If it gets bad enough, then the risk is t…

[deleted]

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#287

Post by throwawaylinux »

marcosdumay wrote: post #244
throwawaylinux wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you define "fundamental thing"? Are we talking primary production here? Or do you mean a stretch of asphalt road for automobiles? Or a steam turbine for thermal electricity generation? a 3nm silicon chip; the factory that makes 3nm silicon chips; the factories that make those factories; a rocket engine; a mRNA vaccine; an office building; a mathematical proof; an astronomical observation; a tank; a nuclear war…

> How do you define "fundamental thing"? Some investment just keep adding to society's wealth, while others have a return and then go away. The first kind is really important because it enables new investment on things that depend on it, the second one doesn't. Well, good luck trying to attribute an specific value for a child. But for your other examples the classification is mostly straightforward.

What fundamental things do you think should have been invested in during low interest times that were not?

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#288

Post by epolanski »

csomar wrote: post #200
epolanski wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Student loans are an American thing. I paid 500€s/year to graduate in chemistry in Italy and have not incurred any debt.

I think this is worse… because the price is being hidden and also the real cost/payment for such an education. Your country, during that time, has incurred debt which you’ll have to pay as a form of extra taxes. The path of least resistance in this case is to not pay as individual and leave it to the rest of community (or country). Does this explain to you why young people are leaving Italy? It’s a form of arbitrage…

I'm now a taxpayer making good money and paying for other's education. I'm fine with that.

I plain despise arguments like yours, they lead nowhere but a more unjust, poorer and more dangerous society.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#289

Post by presentation »

mym1990 wrote: post #189
teekert wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For reference, my mortgage from 13 years ago was 4.85%, the one I got 6 months ago was 4.25%, about 1.5 years ago we got 2%. When I was born in the early 80's, my parents were doing 12%. Of course, housing prices adapt so that banks always extract a nice, steady amount from the people. Even more nowadays, when there's more to extract because more women started working. More to the daycare, more to the banks, the Amer…

Maybe a hot take but I feel like high(er) interest rates for homes should be the standard. This allows for demand to be modulated, and puts up a barrier to rent seekers from flooding the market. The problem is that over the past 5-10 years a lot of property has already been snapped up by investors at minimal interest rates, so as long as rents stay somewhat stable, they investors will be raking in the returns. I gues…

Japan has low rates and doesn’t have these problems. The cause probably differs.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#290

Post by LeonB »

shapefrog wrote: post #190
LeonB wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Before I answer that I’d be interested to know if you have ever met any people? And secondly, do you have any compassion? Because it seems like the answer to one or the other might be “no”, in which case you’re going to struggle to understand any answer I can provide.

I can safely answer yes and yes and still laugh at someone for taking their life savings to the casino and putting it all on red. If it came up red they would be telling me they were a financial genius who had unlocked the secret to riches.

I think you’re right - and I appreciate the answers (including Dang’s) — had they won big on their gamble they would be putting it down to luck.

I feel that people taking out variable loans at 1% and hoping it won’t go to 4% aren’t as reckless as a gambler, and in hindsight it’s pretty easy to lecture them, but I don’t take any joy in it.

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