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Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

goodreason.substack.com

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Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#691
This is all the feds fault. It sounds very 2010 but people need to get back to what the occupy movement was about.

The fed should NOT look at house prices as an asset, for almost everyone it’s an expense and if it’s going up in price that’s just plain old inflation, nothing else.

Interest rates never should have been this low for so long. It was a massive wealth transfer to the existing asset owners from working people.

I just can’t believe there’s been zero blowback about this. And the entire 2008 crises. Many many people should be in prison.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#692

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tax on non-primary properties solves this if you can get it past vested interests. Reasonable tax breaks for your primary or only home, and none for second homes / investments you let out. That gives a valve to perform qualitative easing on the housing market whenever you need to, and is not uncommon in other parts of the world. EDIT: Having read the responses below I’ve realised I didn’t clearly word what I meant he…

You mean that in the US you don't pay tax on the capital gain when you sell a property that is not your home? It's a great country to be rich in!

You can do a “1031 exchange” to trade a non-residence property for a different one.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#693
post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is lots of boring housing in the US. It is not going to be in the Willamette Valley in Oregon. Just like houses in the Alps in Italy versus less desirable places in Italy.

"Just go somewhere else" is causing even the 'boring' places to have problems: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/business/economy/spokane-... We need some more fundamental reforms.

Check out upstate NY. I found a 40 acres, gigabit fiber internet, in ground pool, outbuildings, and a backup generator for well under $500k. Even with the higher taxes here vs the west coast, I'm ahead.

Only caveats are you need to enjoy seclusion (check) and be good at remote employment (this year will be my 10 year anniversary of being 100% remote). Energy costs are a bit high, so I installed 20 kW of solar and will be switching to an air-sourced heat pump for heating & cooling. Even adding these costs to the purchase price results in paying less.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#694

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. I think a lot of people would be fine with a 0% ROI investment if it comes coupled with a free house to live in for the rest of their lives. A house is not a stock, bond, or number in a savings account. You get utility from living in it as well. A 0% ROI would however make that investment unattractive for 3rd parties who don't live in the house.

This sounds like an "inflation hedge" rather than an ordinary investment: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation-hedge.asp

There are lots of different types of investments. Housing is historically considered an excellent hedge against inflation ("Land, they aren't making it anymore")

However, purchasing a house it is not just an inflation hedge. It comes with a house you can live in! This is an attractive quality for many of us humans who like living in homes.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#695

It's a complex topic, even details are left out in this long form article. 1. In our highly financialized society, and with many of us essentially worshipping money, it first needs to be said that not every choice needs to be financially optimal to be the best choice for your life. Buying a home is not just a financial choice, but a lifestyle change. They work with different units so the math cannot cross over, save…

"It's a complex topic, even details are left out in this long form article"

Some summary and factors...

Commenters have blamed:

- Vetocracy and NIMBYism reducing supply

- Federal reserve ownership of banks

- "housing cannot be both affordable in perpetuity and a good investment": the myth of a limited resource

- "Why is every new house a McMansion?" (Because a bigger thing has fatter margins, so it's beneficial to reduce the supply of smaller things. See cars and computers.)

Why fix it?

- So I can get a better home (my $300K is not enough for $1.2M houses)

- To get homeless people off the street (roughly 0.2% of people)

- To get more poor and middle-class people off renting into homes

- To reduce the incentives for the wealthy to manipulate the market

Correct driving factors:

- Mediterranean climate is rare

- "Values go up because of density changes related to location desirability"

   - "You're making a bet that worker productivity will improve near you"
Additional amplifying factors:

- Home loans are recourse-free: if you go underwater, the bank loses, not you.

- Difference in market power between investors and owner-occupiers

    - Owner-occupiers are forced into a location, and have to buy something 
(or rent)

- The home has to appreciate at a rate higher than the after-tax cost of property taxes

    - The Republican's recent cap on property-tax deductions made this equation worse

    - For nice homes, the property taxes alone can be half the median rent
- Renting and buying are not perfect substitutes

    - Most rentals are small, and not in good school districts

    - Most houses are large, so rents are only sensible for large families or wealthy

    - Most jurisdictions exempt single-family homes from most restrictions on rentals

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#696
post #384

The article is flawed from the very beginning. You rarely find similar homes that are both on sale or for rent. The inventories are completely different. And so, fail.

Ae you familiar with "thought experiments"?

I absolutely am, thanks.

My point was that buying (or renting) gives you access to different inventories.

And so this thought experiment is not useful to describe the choice buyers/renters make.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#697
post #644

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't mean to be blunt, but if modest homes in your area are $1m, then you are in a VERY high-cost-of-living area and what you see here is not at all typical of the rest of the country. Where I live, a charming 1200sqft starter home in a blue collar neighborhood goes for $150-$200k.

Indeed. If your complaint is that you need to be a millionaire to get basic housing, it's because you live with other rich people. Since the overwhelming majority of humanity lives in houses with value far below 1M$, we can conclude that no-one really has to live in a place with only 1M$ houses, but you, for some reason, want to do so. Living in a posh neighbourhood is a luxury, like Ferrari (which, by the way, costs…

> If your complaint is that you need to be a millionaire to get basic housing, it's because you live with other rich people.

Hawaii would like to have a word with you, unless you suggest every single non-rich local would just have to move to the mainland. I believe the cheapest home I've seen available, where the neighbors aren't cooking meth, is probably in the $500-600k range and going up.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#698

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a new immigrant to the US, and housing is my single biggest worry together with my work visa. Our household income is north of 300k, but housing still seems unaffordable. It might sound like whining, but we only achieve this level of income recently, so our lifelong savings are in the low 6 figures. We got no assets or property abroad, and no family that can help us to get in the property ladder. Even old, basic…

Most working class people die with savings below five figures. You should re-evaluate how good you're doing. Of course, if you live in California or New York, you're basically broke, since the cost of living in those states is designed to keep people poor. But that's why people left those two states in droves over the last few years.

New York City. New York State, once you get outside the city, is a fairly average state with a lot of rural area that has moderate-to-low cost of living.

I would venture to say that more land area of California is in the "unaffordable to average people" range than that in New York, either as an absolute or as a percentage of the state.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#699
post #644

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't mean to be blunt, but if modest homes in your area are $1m, then you are in a VERY high-cost-of-living area and what you see here is not at all typical of the rest of the country. Where I live, a charming 1200sqft starter home in a blue collar neighborhood goes for $150-$200k.

Indeed. If your complaint is that you need to be a millionaire to get basic housing, it's because you live with other rich people. Since the overwhelming majority of humanity lives in houses with value far below 1M$, we can conclude that no-one really has to live in a place with only 1M$ houses, but you, for some reason, want to do so. Living in a posh neighbourhood is a luxury, like Ferrari (which, by the way, costs…

The sad reality of it is such expensive neighborhoods as we see on east and west coasts, don't actually _feel_ luxurious - there's barely enough infrastructure and convenience associated with them, compared to living far away. The standard of living just isn't as high as the price.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#700
post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our home was $200K. If we own it for 30 years, the property taxes will average to about $180K over that time. If we have $70K expenses (roof, HVAC, etc.) then the total would be 250K. If we sell our home at the end of 30 years for exactly what we bought it for, no raise in value at all, 200K, then 250K of maintenance works out to around $700 per month for each month of those 30 years. Any amount we can sell the house…

You're confusing assets and cashflow. Yes, after 30 years, you came out ahead. But also, you can't sell your house when the drain breaks and you need $10,000 today to pay for fixing it. Especially if you just bought the house. Also, you forgot to account for the $180K in mortgage interest.

I'll throw in the 180K mortgage interest and the mortgage insurance which I also forgot and wager I still come out ahead. Rent would be somewhere between $750K to $1M over that time and none of it is returned.

Since we control our mortgage, we paid it off early, at around 15-16 year mark (due to my wife making me realize the importance of it). We live rent and mortgage free the rest of our lives thank God. I only wish I'd kept either of our 2 former houses instead of taking better job offers requiring moving ultimately to the bay area where we couldn't afford to buy a home. Texas is nice though!

My Dad always said, buy a house as soon as you can.

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