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Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

goodreason.substack.com

621–630 of 1001 posts

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#621
To pile on to the ills of housing cost inflation – there are high order effects on cost. Your $3k / mo day care is expensive because the staff is paying $2500 / mo for their apartment. Auto repair is now $175+ / hour, so are most plumbers, handymen and contractors. The cost of every good & service you are buying is in large part the rent for all the laborers that supplied the inputs.

You may think that minimum wage should rise, but that just takes pressure off of rents and rents go up.

This is not an easy problem to solve, and every mitigation tends to worsen the problem . We've had inflation for 30 years, most of which piled into housing. Covid accelerated the release of the pandora's box.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#622

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that is true at all. A good investment can be one that tracks inflation and simply pays out the labor and capital you put into it. Owning should be cheaper than renting in the long run for the same reason it is cheaper to cook at home than eating out. Savings by owning should be commensurate with the risk taken, cost of upkeep, and time value of money.

I agree that the sort of investment you are describing makes sense - but in practice those kinds of investments are out-competed by ones with better yields. If you are a developer, there is simply no financial incentives to choosing a lower yield financial vehicle. You'll just have more trouble finding funding and have less of a cushion for cost overruns. I also think there's a strong economies of scale argument that…

>I agree that the sort of investment you are describing makes sense - but in practice those kinds of investments are out-competed by ones with better yields.

I think that is a an advantage, not a disadvantage. There is no need for housing investments to have competitive yields. If you can make a profit building houses which have more value to buyers than your cost of inputs, someone will make them. It just won't be a speculative investment good.

I don't worry that people will stop making socks, shoes, or food because the profit margin in that business is lower than the market yield. If there is on opportunity for profit, someone will want do it. They just might not be funded by some massive financial hedge fund, which again, I think is an advantage.

Historically, home ownership has been a vehicle for intergeneration wealth building because it means taking on more responsibility, work, and risk instead of paying a 3rd party to do so.

I would argue that most people renting would not result in the lowest cost, because it turns responsibilities that a homeowner can do for free into 3rd party services which must be paid for. It is like saying that city run food kitchens would be more efficient than people cooking at home. Maybe it is "more efficient" if you count the homeowners implicit labor, but the dollar cost to the cooker is still going up.

I think most people would agree the goal is higher ownership and lower costs than now. I think this is actually reasonable if we fix some of the conditions that lead to house exorbitant growth in house value

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#623

"The idea that home prices should outpace inflation is insane and maybe has broken modern society." At least in the US. Not Japan, which seems to hit the economic problems of the US about 20-30 years earlier. House price growth came partly from population growth. But population growth is over in the developed world. The US fertility rate is around 1.8 babies/female. 2.1 is breakeven. It peaked at 3.8 in 1958. "Peak B…

The US is immune to demographic problems. There’s an infinite supply of young people willing to immigrate and an extremely heterogeneous society really to integrate them. Japan has never figured out how to integrate immigrants.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#624
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What sucks is a lot of young renters with steady jobs can afford to pay off a mortgage month to month, but they just can't afford that down payment (especially the 20% needed so as to not need to get mortgage insurance)! I was in that position for a while. Every time it seemed like I could afford to put that money down, the housing prices went up! It took a handful of years of renting cheap places (with roommates), l…

And here at the bottom of the see, there is no down payment (financing up to 100%), but young renters still can't get the a mortage of the same monthly amount as they pay rent, because of regulatory reasons -- mortage ceiling is defined as something like 5x gross yearly salary. Somehow it's fine to pay half the salary in rent, but not fine if it's financing the mortage.

> Somehow it's fine to pay half the salary in rent, but not fine if it's financing the mortage.

50% of income as mortgage payments are extremely risky mortgages. We've just had the entire financial system collapse not so long ago because of such shenanigans.

Don't people remember the 2008 mortgage crisis?

If you can't pay the rent, you rent something cheaper. It is not nearly that easy when you have a mortgage.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#625
post #6

> Meanwhile, renters are desperate. They’re begging for housing prices not just to slow, but to fall. I have a friend who is a head chef at a decently popular bar and restaurant on Broadway in Capitol Hill, Seattle (very trendy part of town if you aren't familiar, steep commercial rent). He lives in a 400 sq ft studio and is barely, barely making it from one paycheck to the next. I am sitting on a 2.6% interest rate…

I'm a new immigrant to the US, and housing is my single biggest worry together with my work visa. Our household income is north of 300k, but housing still seems unaffordable. It might sound like whining, but we only achieve this level of income recently, so our lifelong savings are in the low 6 figures. We got no assets or property abroad, and no family that can help us to get in the property ladder. Even old, basic…

I don't mean to be blunt, but if modest homes in your area are $1m, then you are in a VERY high-cost-of-living area and what you see here is not at all typical of the rest of the country. Where I live, a charming 1200sqft starter home in a blue collar neighborhood goes for $150-$200k.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#626
post #498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think 33% is very high. Also converting the value to % erases the fact that this is still a very high price for what you get in return. Perhaps it’s time to reevaluate the economics around housing - maybe betting against human lives doesn’t feel right. Also, with overpopulation and climate changes, access to housing and the need for relocation will drastically change the landscape of what one needs to do to put a p…

>maybe betting against human lives doesn’t feel right This is an inappropriate emotional appeal. Real estate is dependent upon the price/value of labor. It's betting for/against labor prices. Labor is not your life. You are more than your job.

Warning, uncomfortable honesty ahead. I'd be betting against labor. With all the automation going on, and the "Huge" technological advancements I foresee probably Of course, I won't step on others, and I'll help where my conscience requires me. But at the end of the day (or the end of the world) I am here to provide a safe future for my children, and perhaps secondary, my culture's children... but definitely not to save the world. The world is beyond saving at this point.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#627
post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't been able to find great statistics, but you can look at state populations to get an idea. California, as an example, went from ~5 million to ~30 million in a few decades post WWII.

California is a pretty substantial outlier there, not exactly representative of the country as a whole, and even then doesn’t actually need a super high inter-state immigration rate to get those numbers. It’s worth noting that the entire country grew 2X larger during those 5 decades. So we’re looking at a 3X increase compared to the average. Which is a lot! But even ignoring the effect of people moving there in the e…

>2X larger during those 5 decades

If the natural growth was 2x in those 5 decades then 5 to 30 is a surplus of 20 million people. A bit less than 10% of the US population in 1990.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#628
post #10

> While the rich are more likely to own homes, tons of middle class and poor people also bought homes and planned their lives under the assumption that housing prices would go up. Tanking housing prices would destroy their trust in the system that they bet everything on. This is pretty much the crux of it. High housing prices could be "fixed" almost overnight, but for almost every citizen of the first world, their ho…

> This is pretty much the crux of it. High housing prices could be "fixed" almost overnight, but for almost every citizen of the first world, their house is the single biggest investment they will ever make in their life. You'd be destroying everyone's retirement plans and there'd be major economic repercussions. I wonder if one way out would be to 1) build government rental-housing projects again, to fill the immedi…

> build government rental-housing projects again

It's a cultural thing too. We're brainwashed to look down on government housing simply because of the racist practices of the past. It wouldn't even have to be government funded necessarily. The problem could be fixed with non-market housing similar to Europe, where the building costs are fulfilled by a loan, and the HOA or housing entity is setup without the goal of making a profit off the rent, setting rental rates at a margin to cover only the loan and necessary expenses.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#629

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that is true at all. A good investment can be one that tracks inflation and simply pays out the labor and capital you put into it. Owning should be cheaper than renting in the long run for the same reason it is cheaper to cook at home than eating out. Savings by owning should be commensurate with the risk taken, cost of upkeep, and time value of money.

Returning your money (at 0% ROI) is not what people want in an investment. What you're describing is a savings account, or even a bit less. Historically you might make a percent or two after inflation, but not the last couple of decades.

I disagree. I think a lot of people would be fine with a 0% ROI investment if it comes coupled with a free house to live in for the rest of their lives.

A house is not a stock, bond, or number in a savings account. You get utility from living in it as well.

A 0% ROI would however make that investment unattractive for 3rd parties who don't live in the house.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#630

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a well-functioning city, a head chef should be able to comfortably afford to rent a 2-3 bedroom apartment within walking distance of their restaurant. They should not be spending 1/3rd of their income and only getting a studio out of it.

You can, just move out of Capitol Hill in Seattle which is one of the most desirable areas in one of the most desirable cities located in one of the most desirable geographies in the wealthiest country on earth. This place looks nice! https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2742-Lincoln-St-NE-Minnea...

I'm not sure if you meant to, since you seemed to be talking framing it around individual choice, but you've just made the case that something is fundamentally damning the economy in cities like Seattle. That's exactly why issues like housing affordability need to be identified and treated at the systemic level.

If people can't satisfyingly live near their work, then they can't work there, and then the work can't be done. If workers has to move to another state to practice their craft, a city needs to proactively recognize and address the problem if they want to avoid a coming blight.

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