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Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

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Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#511
post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no reason to want to make it better (or understand it at all) unless you're also thinking about something besides the raw numbers.

There's no way to make it better if you don't start with the root cause.

You start with a problem statement, not a root cause.

And root causes, especially for problems as complex this, is a fallacy.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#512
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, its 45 without traffic, 1h-1:10 on a normal day, 1.5h during the morning and evening commutes. So they're solidly outside the city radius. The thing is, before I moved in, I did research on 1bdroom apartments within a large radius of the city. And basically, unless I was willing to move to a very unsafe area or very unsafe or clearly problematic apartment, rents simply do not go beneath my current rent price. T…

> There seems to be an agreed upon price floor from all landlords I doubt there's collusion. Being a landlord is expensive, and they're not going to set rents at loss levels.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34926683

> Specifically, every morning, RealPage provides participating Lessors with recommended price levels. ... If Lessors wish to diverge from the “approved pricing” they must submit reasoning for doing so and await approval. ... But RealPage emphasizes the need for discipline among participating Lessors and urges them that for its coordinated algorithmic pricing to be the most successful in increasing rents, participating Lessors must adopt RealPage’s pricing at least 80% of the time.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#513
post #6

> Meanwhile, renters are desperate. They’re begging for housing prices not just to slow, but to fall. I have a friend who is a head chef at a decently popular bar and restaurant on Broadway in Capitol Hill, Seattle (very trendy part of town if you aren't familiar, steep commercial rent). He lives in a 400 sq ft studio and is barely, barely making it from one paycheck to the next. I am sitting on a 2.6% interest rate…

Your property taxes and homeowner's insurance costs are not 'set'.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#514

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a well-functioning city, a head chef should be able to comfortably afford to rent a 2-3 bedroom apartment within walking distance of their restaurant. They should not be spending 1/3rd of their income and only getting a studio out of it.

You can, just move out of Capitol Hill in Seattle which is one of the most desirable areas in one of the most desirable cities located in one of the most desirable geographies in the wealthiest country on earth. This place looks nice! https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2742-Lincoln-St-NE-Minnea...

And where would that chef work then?

Should they simply give up on their own ambitions and career goals?

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#515
Most people are probably better off renting, especially those without a good deal of disposable income after expenses. Unexpected costs for a house just keep coming and the insurance company just laughs at you when you file a claim.

My fence blew down and my sunken living room flooded in a storm and insurance classified it as a basement so it's not covered. That's been a 40k hit. I have to get trees trimmed, $3,500. Garage door opener stopped working. The hits keep coming. If I rented all it costs me is a phone call to my landlord.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#516
post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I bought my first house in the early 1990s. Saving the down payment was tough. Compare housing prices since 1990 vs. wage growth over the same period. For the overwhelming majority of people entering the workforce today, there is no way to realistically save for a down payment unless you forego saving for anything else - no 401k, no IRA, no emergency fund, no car, no family.

I think a more apt comparison would be monthly mortgage + interest payment divided by price per square ft over time. I suspect it just barely tracks inflation. Houses have gotten bigger and interest rates have fallen since then.

I understand the bit about interest rates. But the disappearance of starter homes from the market is part of the problem, not a cool accounting trick to hide it.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#517

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean that in the US you don't pay tax on the capital gain when you sell a property that is not your home? It's a great country to be rich in!

You do pay tax on that. However, you don't have to if you die and pass the property down to your spouse and/or children. This is the step-up in basis and is key to building generational wealth in the US.

> This is the step-up in basis and is key to building generational wealth in the US.

Yes, but for most people, that's not really a benefit. It's possible to exclude the first few hundred thousand of capital gains taxes on a primary residence anyway. So even without the step-up basis, the tax burden on these properties would be tiny.

Property taxes are a much more significant form of taxation than capital gains. And would be even without any preferential treatment.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel similar cognitive dissonance every time I compare myself to people I know outside of tech. Pretty much without exception, they work harder jobs than me or my colleagues with worse hours and for a fraction of the income. I don't think my observation is tied to the housing market, other than it being a vehicle to expedite the wealth gap.

Do you believe your income is unearned? Or are you just virtue signaling about what the labor market values?

I'm with them. "Earned" is really the big question. If I feel I earned my pay, and then I see someone else who's working harder and getting paid much less, it follows that I must also feel that they are receiving less than they have earned.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#519
post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Just go somewhere else" is causing even the 'boring' places to have problems: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/business/economy/spokane-... We need some more fundamental reforms.

Such as what? The merging of Seattle and Tacoma was inevitable. The same thing has happened to a lot of cities that are separate by <1hr commutes via highways.

Hopefully this year, Washington will follow in Oregon's footsteps and re-legalize things like 4-plexes, or maybe go even further in big cities like Seattle.

Basically, "(re)legalize housing", along with things like corner stores and neighborhood commercial like corner stores and barber shops.

Re: Maybe treating housing as an investment was a mistake

#520
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What sucks is a lot of young renters with steady jobs can afford to pay off a mortgage month to month, but they just can't afford that down payment (especially the 20% needed so as to not need to get mortgage insurance)! I was in that position for a while. Every time it seemed like I could afford to put that money down, the housing prices went up! It took a handful of years of renting cheap places (with roommates), l…

I did an FHA loan on my first house 15 years ago, and the down payment was peanuts. Unless you have a poor FICO or your debt ratio is high, you probably qualify. https://www.fha.com/fha_loan_requirements

How much was your total mortgage? Because housing prices have gone up dramatically in the last 15 years, and the math that worked back then (in terms of total mortgage amount, monthly payments, etc) doesn't work anymore today for a lot of people.
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