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Cargo cult science (1974)

calteches.library.caltech.edu

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Re: Cargo cult science (1974)

#31

Post by themodelplumber »

amelius wrote: post #19
debacle wrote: post #2

Humans are innately imaginative outside of the bounds of reality. Most people I know believe in things that aren't real, whether it be crystals, chakras, essential oils, random mythologies about random things. Most interestingly, these are generally weak beliefs strongly held. You'll never convince these people that they've divorced themselves from reality, and you have nearly nothing to gain from trying. Psychologis…

Uh, placebos work, and different placebos may work better for different people!

Yep. And given a significant problem and a placebo, would you rather:

1) Not use the placebo, because even though it seems to work for you, it's been scientifically shown in trials to do nothing

2) Use the placebo, because it seems to work; somehow get good results

A huge number of people will choose #1. They are extremely close to cargo cult without even realizing it.

I'd say that if there's a pos/neg polarization to cargo cult, they are on the negative side, looking for things to reject in culty ways. But whether you're consuming product or rejecting it, the same shaky mindsets apply.

Re: Cargo cult science (1974)

#32

Post by college_physics »

hinkley wrote: post #18

Sabine Hossenfelder basically posted a rant about particle physicists on Youtube last week, about how they are doing science wrong. Basically she said you are supposed to change your theory based upon results that don't match the theory, and what they have been doing for decades is looking at gaps in the results, and imagining particle theories that don't alter the expected results in the currently explored energy le…

the thing is that this pattern of pushing to unexplored energy levels did work before. Unicorns were found in the unexplored forests of Congo. In fact an entire zoo of unicorns of all shapes and forms was found, an incredible achievement that stands among the most important stuff our gray-tinted gel has managed to internalize about the universe. You can't blame modern day particle physicists for being born late for the Unicorn chasing party...

so the argurment now is, for how much longer is it reasonable to be roaming difficult terrains in the hope that we might have a repeat miracle? Its practically impossible to answer. "All Unicorns have been discovered" has been a scientist's cry as far back as Laplace.

Re: Cargo cult science (1974)

#33

Post by superkuh »

You see this constantly in information technology contexts as well. People who at work, when required to work with many other people on the same project which itself is of a larger scale, then bring kubernetes style containers and ideas about "deployment" home to their personal webserver. And this would be fine, silly, recreation if only they didn't write up articles on "How to host from home" that described their k8/etc/etc setup like it was required in this new context.

Basically any time you see the word "deployal" outside of a business or institutional IT context you're looking at cargo cult behavior.

Re: Cargo cult science (1974)

#34

Post by anonymous_sorry »

orgels_revenge wrote: post #3
debacle wrote: post #2

Humans are innately imaginative outside of the bounds of reality. Most people I know believe in things that aren't real, whether it be crystals, chakras, essential oils, random mythologies about random things. Most interestingly, these are generally weak beliefs strongly held. You'll never convince these people that they've divorced themselves from reality, and you have nearly nothing to gain from trying. Psychologis…

Well said. For me, a person who admittedly has some pretty far-out beliefs/theories, it’s because there is generally no penalty for having these beliefs. Sure, at work where things count, I make sure my theories adhere to reality. But when I’m out chilling in nature? My goal then is to have fun, and entertaining crazy ideas is my idea of a good time. People who have to be correct all the time are kind of missing out…

But surely there's a difference between entertaining crazy ideas, which can be fun and an exercise in creativity, and elevating them to beliefs?

I wonder if it stems from discomfort at the admitting, even to ourselves, that there are things we don't know.

For me, it's not so much about being correct all the time, as just avoiding being wrong.

Re: Cargo cult science (1974)

#35

Post by themodelplumber »

orgels_revenge wrote: post #3
debacle wrote: post #2

Humans are innately imaginative outside of the bounds of reality. Most people I know believe in things that aren't real, whether it be crystals, chakras, essential oils, random mythologies about random things. Most interestingly, these are generally weak beliefs strongly held. You'll never convince these people that they've divorced themselves from reality, and you have nearly nothing to gain from trying. Psychologis…

Well said. For me, a person who admittedly has some pretty far-out beliefs/theories, it’s because there is generally no penalty for having these beliefs. Sure, at work where things count, I make sure my theories adhere to reality. But when I’m out chilling in nature? My goal then is to have fun, and entertaining crazy ideas is my idea of a good time. People who have to be correct all the time are kind of missing out…

I noticed that generally, people who describe themselves like you don't use the "believe/not believe" phrasing, at least not with so much intensity.

At the same time, a lot of cargo cultists are looking to relax and turn on the "just believe in something whole-hog" autopilot.

They don't even like exploring details that are interesting, because it muddies the waters around the big Belief question.

Re: Cargo cult science (1974)

#37

Post by hinkley »

college_physics wrote: post #32
hinkley wrote: post #18

Sabine Hossenfelder basically posted a rant about particle physicists on Youtube last week, about how they are doing science wrong. Basically she said you are supposed to change your theory based upon results that don't match the theory, and what they have been doing for decades is looking at gaps in the results, and imagining particle theories that don't alter the expected results in the currently explored energy le…

the thing is that this pattern of pushing to unexplored energy levels did work before. Unicorns were found in the unexplored forests of Congo. In fact an entire zoo of unicorns of all shapes and forms was found, an incredible achievement that stands among the most important stuff our gray-tinted gel has managed to internalize about the universe. You can't blame modern day particle physicists for being born late for t…

The last time we found something that was predicted by the Standard Model was 1983, wasn't it? That's 40 years.

edit: her complaint is that once funding sources realize that 'particle physicists shill ridiculous ideas for research grants', all of the money dries up and won't return for at least a generation or two. That's an existential threat to the field. That sounds like a legitimate complaint to me. Unfortunately she's also shining a spotlight on the thing she's worried about other people noticing.

Re: Cargo cult science (1974)

#38

Post by shagmin »

debacle wrote: post #2

Humans are innately imaginative outside of the bounds of reality. Most people I know believe in things that aren't real, whether it be crystals, chakras, essential oils, random mythologies about random things. Most interestingly, these are generally weak beliefs strongly held. You'll never convince these people that they've divorced themselves from reality, and you have nearly nothing to gain from trying. Psychologis…

In the book Sapiens it builds on this idea for myths lots of people believe in, or "shared fictions" or artificial truths or whatever you want to call it. Like money for example, it's only worth anything as long as people believe it has purchasing power, even if really it's just collections of 0s and 1s or symbols printed on textiles. Extrapolate that idea to many other things people collectively believe in, and that let's us build stable societies.

Re: Cargo cult science (1974)

#39

Post by lynx23 »

hinkley wrote: post #18

Sabine Hossenfelder basically posted a rant about particle physicists on Youtube last week, about how they are doing science wrong. Basically she said you are supposed to change your theory based upon results that don't match the theory, and what they have been doing for decades is looking at gaps in the results, and imagining particle theories that don't alter the expected results in the currently explored energy le…

Just unsub her. She picked up a lot of people by her bold way of presenting. Most discover after a while that she isnt worth watching.

Re: Cargo cult science (1974)

#40

Post by hinkley »

lynx23 wrote: post #39
hinkley wrote: post #18

Sabine Hossenfelder basically posted a rant about particle physicists on Youtube last week, about how they are doing science wrong. Basically she said you are supposed to change your theory based upon results that don't match the theory, and what they have been doing for decades is looking at gaps in the results, and imagining particle theories that don't alter the expected results in the currently explored energy le…

Just unsub her. She picked up a lot of people by her bold way of presenting. Most discover after a while that she isnt worth watching.

I'm not even subbed. The things I am subbed to just don't generate new content at the rate that I hit youtube so I end up with suggestions.
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