Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue? • Hacker News Board

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#111

Post by refurb » Mon, Mar 06, 2023, 3:55 AM UTC

metadat wrote: post #105

bluGill wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't a high interest rate ecconomy, this is normal interest rates. Rates have been absurdily low for a while so you may not remember it, but history provides a record.

Is the norm really that home loans are unaffordable even to first-time-buyer DINKs with good-to-decent six figure jobs who just want a place to live? (not an investment property) Currently the mortgage rates are the highest ever since 1989. Have you personally already purchased your first home? Without family assistance, it would be absolutely brutal and untenable for my children to enter into in this domain at prese…

Yes, it's normal when housing prices have massively inflated due to ultra-low interest rates, then rates returned to normal.

If DINKs can't afford it, what does that tell you about the direction housing prices will go?

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#112

Post by metadat » Mon, Mar 06, 2023, 3:57 AM UTC

eek2121 wrote: post #72

mkl95 wrote: post #9

We have gone from a zero interest rate economy to a high interest one within months. Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so, but you cannot predict how millions of people will react to suddenly not being able to afford stuff.

Accurate prediction: Job data trails rate increases by many months. So do recessions. If the fed levels off interest rates within the next year or so, we have a very good chance of avoiding a recession. I am young/old enough to remember the last time interest rates were this high, and we were BOOMING. If the fed pushes the gas on interest rates, it will likely push us into a mild recession. Thanks (covid!) to million…

Hogwash. How do you know in advance this prediction will be "accurate"? Please don't spread ChatGPT-level certainty about an inherently uncertain future, it is a disservice and insult to all.

Otherwise, please share the magic crystal ball sources.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#113

Post by refurb » Mon, Mar 06, 2023, 3:57 AM UTC

throwswaydollar wrote: post #109

As a global citizen, I'm worse off using the dolar. Sooner it's gone the better.

It's the opposite. If the US keeps raising rates and other countries don't (like it appears Canada will do), then USD will appreciate in value. Smart to be holding USD right now.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#114

Post by shagie » Mon, Mar 06, 2023, 3:58 AM UTC

takeda wrote: post #102

toomuchtodo wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A friend worked for Royal Caribbean in their entertainment division onboard. No work, no unemployment, a bit of stimulus, and had to crash at one of my homes so they weren’t homeless. Because no one rents to you when you have no assets and volatile income during a pandemic. Exhausted their emergency savings and modest retirement account. This is one of many of my associates in the service industry that had substantia…

How came no unemployment? If you had regular job, you were eligible for unemployment there was also PUP enabled due to pandemic, so if you were self employed you could request unemployment under that. In addition there were also short periods of time where you could get extra $600/week (as it is impossible to survive for long on the usual unemployment amount)

https://www.businessinsider.com/cruise-line-crew-workers-los...

They tend to work as contractors on a limited term contract and international maritime labor laws are unlikely to require it. Note also the country of registry for the ships may have more lax labor laws too.

(edit)

The only instance of unemployment being mentioned in international maritime labor laws I've found is https://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/en/f?p=NORMLEXPUB:91:0::NO::...

> Regulation 2.6 – Seafarer compensation for the ship’s loss or foundering

> Purpose: To ensure that seafarers are compensated when a ship is lost or has foundered

> 1. Seafarers are entitled to adequate compensation in the case of injury, loss or unemployment arising from the ship’s loss or foundering.

This very specifically deals with ships sinking. Not "ok, no work everyone off."

A delicate balance: The seafarers’ employment agreement, the system of the Maritime Labour Convention, 2006 and the role of flag States - https://hal.science/hal-01470314/document also touches on unemployment (there's a single mention of it).

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#115

Post by metadat » Mon, Mar 06, 2023, 4:00 AM UTC

refurb wrote: post #111

metadat wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the norm really that home loans are unaffordable even to first-time-buyer DINKs with good-to-decent six figure jobs who just want a place to live? (not an investment property) Currently the mortgage rates are the highest ever since 1989. Have you personally already purchased your first home? Without family assistance, it would be absolutely brutal and untenable for my children to enter into in this domain at prese…

Yes, it's normal when housing prices have massively inflated due to ultra-low interest rates, then rates returned to normal. If DINKs can't afford it, what does that tell you about the direction housing prices will go?

> If DINKs can't afford it, what does that tell you about the direction housing prices will go?

Elites and wealthy boomers will keep soaking up resources, then prices may become volatile in a southward direction.

In the meantime, the current generation is frozen in place, unable to progress in a rigged game.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#116

Post by rayiner » Mon, Mar 06, 2023, 4:01 AM UTC

metadat wrote: post #105

bluGill wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't a high interest rate ecconomy, this is normal interest rates. Rates have been absurdily low for a while so you may not remember it, but history provides a record.

Is the norm really that home loans are unaffordable even to first-time-buyer DINKs with good-to-decent six figure jobs who just want a place to live? (not an investment property) Currently the mortgage rates are the highest ever since 1989. Have you personally already purchased your first home? Without family assistance, it would be absolutely brutal and untenable for my children to enter into in this domain at prese…

Can your kids afford an $851/month mortgage? https://www.redfin.com/IA/Cedar-Rapids/6835-Preston-Terrace-...

Or $1600/month? This has a nursery so they can fix the dink: https://www.redfin.com/MD/Pasadena/3500K-Lochearn-Ct-21122/u...

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#117

Post by jaggederest » Mon, Mar 06, 2023, 4:01 AM UTC

boppo1 wrote: post #94

almog wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only it's not high compared to historical rates but worse I think is that Fed's real interest rate is still in the negative territory: January CPI report headline came at 6.3% YoY and core at 5.3% YoY (it's negative with current rates even if you use the PCE index as a baseline, which is the Fed's favorite index to measure inflation).

How does one determine the 'real' interest rate?

To parallel the other comment with a wiki leak, the short version is the risk-free interest rate (e.g. treasury bills) minus the rate of inflation.

So if you have 6% inflation, and the return on e.g. the 1 year t bill is 4.75%, you have -1.25% "real" interest rates, because your money at the end of your year of investment will be worth ~1.23% less than it was at the beginning of the year.

I'm not sure I completely agree that the result is actually as bad as that, since stuffing your money in the mattress would put you -5.5% in the hole by comparison, but still.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#118

Post by flkiwi » Mon, Mar 06, 2023, 4:10 AM UTC

umeshunni wrote: post #97

flkiwi wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historians in 500 years will stare in wonder at the stunning evidence we did not, in fact, build ALL the infrastructure, physical and otherwise, during the last ~25 years of absurdly cheap money.

Most of the world's infrastructure was, indeed, built in the last 25 years. It's just that it wasn't in the West.

Touché.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#119

Post by spatley » Mon, Mar 06, 2023, 4:14 AM UTC

dd36 wrote: post #79

ceejayoz wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> no one going to work for three years Where did this happen?

Yeah, I don’t know a single person that didn’t work.

Yeah, we need to stop talking about the pandemic experience like it affected people in any way similarily. Tech worked their fingers to the bone— 50 hour weeks and isolatng heads down grind. Everyone made money but it crushed their souls. Hospitality and entertainment stayed home and starved. Essential workers went in every day under crushing conditions, fear and literal death.

We were all subject to one master. But under a different punishment.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#120

Post by rayiner » Mon, Mar 06, 2023, 4:14 AM UTC

Nobody wants to admit it but Trump’s immigration policies, which Biden continued, actually had the intended effect. Inflation was a predictable consequence of ramping down on the influx of cheap workers, but that’s fine. Americans don’t need cheap stuff as much as they need workers to have bargaining power.