91–100 of 298 posts
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> no one going to work for three years Where did this happen?
I'm not sure about three years, but anywhere the service and entertainment industry was shut down due to Covid. Eg California.
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> to a high interest one We're at 4.50–4.75, no? That's not low, but it's not high either. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate#Historica...
The better question is: what rate are most ppl paying on their credit card debt.
I think it can but I wouldn't call it a miracle. The "boomer bulge" in the workforce is in the process of entering retirement en masse. The generations replacing them are smaller. This will contribute to higher inflation (lots of money that was sitting in real estate and 401ks being withdrawn to compete over a limited supply of basic goods and services like healthcare), and also to lower unemployment. It doesn't nece…
> I promise it is quite possible for a nation to banish unemployment but still have a majority of people struggling to get by. You can always end up having a bunch of low paying jobs that don't allow for a good standard of living. Everyone will be employed but I'm sure no one will end up enjoying that.
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> to a high interest one We're at 4.50–4.75, no? That's not low, but it's not high either. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate#Historica...
Not only it's not high compared to historical rates but worse I think is that Fed's real interest rate is still in the negative territory: January CPI report headline came at 6.3% YoY and core at 5.3% YoY (it's negative with current rates even if you use the PCE index as a baseline, which is the Fed's favorite index to measure inflation).
I thought this was a bizarre (OK, I'll be honest, shitty) article. The beginning starts out by seemingly making the point that Japan has low unemployment because it has a lot of inefficient, "make-work" jobs, e.g. "smartly dressed women help you use the lifts" (subtext being who needs help using an elevator) and "a team of four people was involved in the preparation of your correspondent’s gin martini". OK, fair enou…
In the U.S. what changed over the past 5 years is legal immigration: it was drastically cut and has not been restored.
So as citizens and existing long-term residents pursue better jobs or time at home, there are far fewer new residents eager for lower paying jobs. If you talk to businesses that have traditionally employed these newly arrived folks—food service, agriculture, construction, childcare, etc—they will be crystal clear about the impact they are seeing.
Places with desirable standards of living don’t need replacement level births. They just need the right levels of immigration. People will come, ready to work on day one.
Isn't this the long arc of the sub replacement birthrates?
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This isn't a high interest rate ecconomy, this is normal interest rates. Rates have been absurdily low for a while so you may not remember it, but history provides a record.
Historians in 500 years will stare in wonder at the stunning evidence we did not, in fact, build ALL the infrastructure, physical and otherwise, during the last ~25 years of absurdly cheap money.
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> no one going to work for three years Where did this happen?
Yeah, I don’t know a single person that didn’t work.
We have gone from a zero interest rate economy to a high interest one within months. Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so, but you cannot predict how millions of people will react to suddenly not being able to afford stuff.
Whether this decrease is sustainable is indeed an open question.
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Not only it's not high compared to historical rates but worse I think is that Fed's real interest rate is still in the negative territory: January CPI report headline came at 6.3% YoY and core at 5.3% YoY (it's negative with current rates even if you use the PCE index as a baseline, which is the Fed's favorite index to measure inflation).
How does one determine the 'real' interest rate?