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Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

economist.com

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Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#81

Post by vuln »

ceejayoz wrote: post #73
vuln wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Immigration is not slowing it could be peaking but we're seeing double even triple the number of monthly encounters at the southern border alone. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-enc...

Immigration encompasses a lot more activity than just illegal crossings of the southern border. The Fed uses the term "slowing": https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economi...

Yes they do say it slowed 2017-2020 and during the pandemic. The following line states:

"More recent data show immigration has rebounded strongly, helping to close the shortfall in foreign-born labor and ease tight labor markets."

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#82

Post by newaccount2021 »

flkiwi wrote: post #37
bluGill wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't a high interest rate ecconomy, this is normal interest rates. Rates have been absurdily low for a while so you may not remember it, but history provides a record.

Historians in 500 years will stare in wonder at the stunning evidence we did not, in fact, build ALL the infrastructure, physical and otherwise, during the last ~25 years of absurdly cheap money.

[dead]

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#83

Post by lsh123 »

mkl95 wrote: post #9

We have gone from a zero interest rate economy to a high interest one within months. Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so, but you cannot predict how millions of people will react to suddenly not being able to afford stuff.

> We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so

Right, of course. Election time.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#84

Post by majormajor »

b33j0r wrote: post #58
roflyear wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

seems the consensus is "a little more inflation" is better than "a bigger recession" which is probably true. People are still trying to get on their feet, and inflation is "felt" a lot less than losing your job (and not being able to find a new one for a long time).

This conversation needs someone fiddling in the background. No one had a normal economic life for several years. It’s a miracle that these levers have been adjusted to the point that everyone is like “well no one going to work for three years had no impact! What over-reactionaries!”

I find the idea that there's a "normal" period somewhat baffling. Conditions have been constantly changing for hundreds of years, from interest rates to investment strategies to technology to globalization etc.

Nobody has a magic crystal ball for what's next.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#85

Post by toomuchtodo »

dd36 wrote: post #79
ceejayoz wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> no one going to work for three years Where did this happen?

Yeah, I don’t know a single person that didn’t work.

A friend worked for Royal Caribbean in their entertainment division onboard. No work, no unemployment, a bit of stimulus, and had to crash at one of my homes so they weren’t homeless. Because no one rents to you when you have no assets and volatile income during a pandemic. Exhausted their emergency savings and modest retirement account.

This is one of many of my associates in the service industry that had substantial employment challenges.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#87

Post by LeonB »

ethbr0 wrote: post #16
mkl95 wrote: post #9

We have gone from a zero interest rate economy to a high interest one within months. Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so, but you cannot predict how millions of people will react to suddenly not being able to afford stuff.

> to a high interest one We're at 4.50–4.75, no? That's not low, but it's not high either. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate#Historica...

To someone who took out a loan expecting it to stay at the rate it was at… It’s extremely high.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#88

Post by metaphor »

bluGill wrote: post #20
mkl95 wrote: post #9

We have gone from a zero interest rate economy to a high interest one within months. Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so, but you cannot predict how millions of people will react to suddenly not being able to afford stuff.

This isn't a high interest rate ecconomy, this is normal interest rates. Rates have been absurdily low for a while so you may not remember it, but history provides a record.

WTF does "normal interest rates" even mean when public debt to GDP[1] is over 120%, and servicing interest on that debt alone[2] costs taxpayers more than the entire FY23 defense budget[3]??

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA

[3] https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/32...

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#89

Post by marcosdumay »

ajross wrote: post #80
marcosdumay wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, monetary changes maintain the mean purchase power. But people being able to buy necessities is more about median purchase power, or really the details of its distribution. The mean purchase power has a very small impact on society.

And I say a third time: if you want to have a discussion about unfair distribution of monetary effects on specific populations, you need to have that discussion and not just shout "inflation!". Because while your point is true, it's specious. Changes are always happening (c.f. eggs, mentioned upthread). The question isn't whether things are changing, it's about what is changing and what to do about it.

Still "elevated inflation disrupts the purchase power of most of the population" is a perfectly real phenomenon. It's not an "specific population", unless you think "almost everyone" is "specific".

And yes, the disruption tends to pass after the inflation goes away. But none of that makes the argument specious.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#90

Post by bobthepanda »

LeonB wrote: post #87
ethbr0 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> to a high interest one We're at 4.50–4.75, no? That's not low, but it's not high either. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate#Historica...

To someone who took out a loan expecting it to stay at the rate it was at… It’s extremely high.

Variable rate is less common than fixed rate in the US, which I would suspect is why US spending in particular is proving to be sticky.
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