Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify • Hacker News Board

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#231

Post by anonymouskimmer » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 6:10 PM UTC

thr717272 wrote: post #221

anonymouskimmer wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not between , but making it more difficult for Russia to safely send troops into the Donbas region. Depending on the routes Russia takes to get materials and troops into the Donbas, and to protect other routes into the Donbas, we have: Turkey - blocking entry of north seas warships into the Black Sea / Sea of Azov. Ukraine itself, which can send missiles onto the Russian roads currently funneling troops into the Donb…

> Not between, but making it more difficult for Russia to safely send troops into the Donbas region. Based on the way you write it seems you think this is problematic. Do you?

I don't understand your question? I was addressing a strawman. That is all.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#232

Post by 93po » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 6:10 PM UTC

foota wrote: post #37

andy_ppp wrote: post #34

Are the increasingly tight capital controls a precursor to a war with Taiwan or because the CCP expects some other shock to occur? Is their economy expected to crash for some other reason or is this simply dictatorships love centralised control over everything especially capital?

Could be in preparation for supplying arms to Russia.

Could be in preparation for supplying arms to the US.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#233

Post by dirtyid » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 6:15 PM UTC

andy_ppp wrote: post #34

Are the increasingly tight capital controls a precursor to a war with Taiwan or because the CCP expects some other shock to occur? Is their economy expected to crash for some other reason or is this simply dictatorships love centralised control over everything especially capital?

CCPs been stemming outflows for past decade, this is just another push, probably triggered by post covid flight from folks who want out and CCP being hooked on big drop in flight throughout covid. Capital flight was ~4T between 05s-15s when PRC economy was 1/3-2/3 as large. It's a good chunk of change to try to hold onto.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#234

Post by LorenPechtel » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 6:22 PM UTC

passwordoops wrote: post #46

andy_ppp wrote: post #34

Are the increasingly tight capital controls a precursor to a war with Taiwan or because the CCP expects some other shock to occur? Is their economy expected to crash for some other reason or is this simply dictatorships love centralised control over everything especially capital?

Could be all of the above, but for at least a year I have been reading how the real estate bubble that's underpinning the Chinese growth economy is starting to pop with the potential to bleed into the banking system, e.g. [0] If this happens, and is at bad as some analysts say it could be, then the model propping up the CCP effectively ends [1] and they'll have bigger things to worry about than re-unification or tari…

Yeah, I have been watching the mess that's the Chinese real estate market for ages and it's insane. Rent should be something like the mortgage payment on a property--but it's like 10% of a mortgage payment. The government is determined to keep the growth rate up--despite the fact that an advanced economy can't maintain the sort of growth rate developing economy can.

The people can see the market is dangerous but allowing the money to flee to safer locations would crash the market and that's unacceptable. Hence things like capital controls. It's not the hardcore efforts to get foreign currency that we saw in the old days, but it's still an issue.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#235

Post by s1artibartfast » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 6:22 PM UTC

jonnybgood wrote: post #225

s1artibartfast wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody forced Putin to invade. However, the US government certainly signed off on pre-war decisions to extend Nato into Ukraine, paying to modernize the Ukrainian military, and Joint military exercises in the Black Sea. Not being part of these decisions, You and I can only speculate on how they fit into overall US strategy and how the risk-rewards were weighed. My concern as a US citizen is that the current war in Uk…

> However, the US government certainly signed off on pre-war decisions to extend Nato into Ukraine, paying to modernize the Ukrainian military, and Joint military exercises in the Black Sea. All of this occurred after 2014. What happened in 2014? Everything that is happening in that region is due to Putin and Russia’s own actions. This is not a great benefit to the US whatsoever. It takes attention away from Asia. Th…

>What happened in 2014

A revolution in Ukraine where a pro-Russia government was removed and a pro-NATO one came to power. This is extremely relevant.

>Everything that is happening in that region is due to Putin and Russia’s own actions.

To be clear, I am not denying Russia's agency and aggression. Similarly, I don't think it is realistic to say that the US has made zero decisions, has zero influence, has zero power, and zero interests in the region.

>This is not a great benefit to the US whatsoever.

This war has imposed real costs to Russia and has a real chance of destabilizing Russia for the foreseeable future, perhaps breaking it. It is extremally cheap compared to other wars and being fought without loss of American lives. The conflict is taking nothing away from US efforts in Asia.

Honest question: If you were a US military strategist, would you sacrifice Ukraine to destroy Russia? Would you sacrifice Ukraine to simply damage their military?

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#236

Post by marianatom » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 6:30 PM UTC

dragonelite wrote: post #58

Have been hearing these kind of "capital flight" stories for decade plus now somehow big financial institutions keep pushing more FDI into China. See i'm not an economist but you can't that sounds a bit counter intuitive too me. One story says China has capital flight and you have other stories talking about more and more Foreign directed investment into China.

1.) Hong Kong money into China is counted by the Chinese government as FDI https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-05/china-rou...

2.) A more thorough report shows that China's inbound FDI has been plummeting

https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/insights/chinas-fdi-decline...

China is seeing falling inbound FDI in all its major sectors, with financial services down 62% between 2019-2022 and electronics down 56%. Which would align with all of the major technology companies pulling out of China in 2022-2023

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#237

Post by marianatom » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 6:31 PM UTC

rendall wrote: post #69

dragonelite wrote: post #58

Have been hearing these kind of "capital flight" stories for decade plus now somehow big financial institutions keep pushing more FDI into China. See i'm not an economist but you can't that sounds a bit counter intuitive too me. One story says China has capital flight and you have other stories talking about more and more Foreign directed investment into China.

> ...and you have other stories talking about more and more Foreign directed investment into China. Source? All of my sources have it that foreign investors are shy after consistent rounds of government interference and even nationalization.

You are correct https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/insights/chinas-fdi-decline... shows that FDI is falling in the last 3 years. The increase is with double counting, from Hong Kong investment being counted as FDI.

China’s Foreign Investment Data Distorted by Hong Kong Flows https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-05/china-rou...

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#238

Post by dirtyid » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 6:33 PM UTC

andy_ppp wrote: post #61

jacquesm wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that in turn might cause them to start a war... Because when the regime has nothing to lose all bets are off, even though it makes no sense whatsoever. They will have to distract from their culpability somehow.

The ever centralisation around one man is incredibly short sighted. The Chinese system used to be much more sophisticated, having both a very capitalistic view of the world and a very communistic view. They have completely lost half of that and even the communism will disappear if things start going wrong - all that will be left is maintaining the dictatorship at all costs.

>incredibly short sighted

It's incredibly pragmatic, Chinese system was shit show in the 80s-10s going after easy gains while building up onerous contradictions. A lot of toes needed to be stepped on to do something as basic as military modernization, meanwhile Xi hasn't even aggregated enough political power to pass wide scale property tax. The issue isn't Xi centralizing power, but power was never sufficiently centralized, and in many ways, still isn't.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#239

Post by trilbyglens » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 6:49 PM UTC

Kon-Peki wrote: post #219

selimthegrim wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The Argentinian junta thought the UK would be unable to respond to their invasion of the Falklands (and if they had waited a couple more years, they may well have been right) Because of elections or ships and planes being retired?

Well, sure, it took quite a while for the British Navy to get there - they didn’t have ships or planes nearby. But the UK economy wasn’t doing well and Margaret Thatcher was very unpopular especially with the working class. I doubt many British people cared that much about the Falklands and wouldn’t have minded if they had let it go. But I think an awful lot of the British, and even Americans and Europeans, were comp…

I believe there was literally a plan in the works to do just that.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#240

Post by Overtonwindow » Sun, Mar 05, 2023, 6:55 PM UTC

spywaregorilla wrote: post #117

Overtonwindow wrote: post #87

Can China prop up its economy forever? There has been some alarming articles about China's economy the past year, particularly that the real estate market, exports, and other issues are putting the company into a very terrible financial situation. However, the government in China IS the bank. They can declare a company solvent that is not, bailout anyone and everyone, shut down companies at will, etc. In such a non-m…

I've seen this idea expressed on HN a few times recently. I don't get it. The mechanics are really not that different from any other country. If you print billions to bail out entities you get rapid inflation. The big things at risk are real estate prices and local governments. You can't easily wave this away regardless of your level of control.

What would stop a country with full control from simply printing money and saying "inflation? What inflation?" Where will the cracks show and how will they show?