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Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

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Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#211

Post by s1artibartfast »

ginko wrote: post #199
s1artibartfast wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine joining NATO has been a hotbutton topic for the last 10 years. It was decided 6 months before the invasion that it would Ukraine would join, and I don't the two facts are entirely unrelated.

You can't join NATO if you have an ongoing territorial dispute. Ukraine would have been unable to join while Crimea and parts of Donbass/Luhansk were occupied.

I agree this has been a prerequisite for full NATO ascension so far. However, The process starts with a promise of NATO membership which was given. Since 2014 NATO has has operated several trust funds and aid packages to modernize the Ukrainian military. There has also been a NATO/US presence in Ukraine, training, and joint exercises.

Prior to the war, Ukraine sought entry despite ongoing conflicts, claiming "NATO is the only way to end the war in Donbas".

Since the start of the war, Former US Ambassador to NATO and others have called for Ukraine to be offered membership, despite territorial conflicts.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#212

Post by lvl102 »

andsoitis wrote: post #194
lvl102 wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would USD dominance diminish? Something like 90% of IP is based out of the US. Chinese education system is a complete joke (as evidence by brain drain).

USD share of global forex reserves has been declining for two decades, but it is still used more than all other currencies combined . Here is a good article by the IMF that gets into how various central banks are diversifying their reserves into a broader range of currencies. https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/06/01/blog-dollar...

EUR is all but finished. Chinese RMB is also set for significant depreciation as a direct result of international trade/manufacturing “rebalance” away from everything-made-in-China model. Only thing remaining is USD.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#213

Post by logifail »

mistermann wrote: post #190
logifail wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there’s nothing the US wants less than borders starting to be changed by wars I think it's a major mistake to talk about any country as if it's one homogenous, unanimous entity. There are those in the US, and elsewhere, who stand to make a great deal of out of money from war.

>> there’s nothing the US wants less than borders starting to be changed by wars > I think it's a major mistake to talk about any country as if it's one homogenous, unanimous entity Not to mention mind reading! It's become so common and acceptable in our culture, we don't even realize when we're doing it anymore. I swear, this simulation is becoming so bizarre it wouldn't even shock me if one day flood lights came on…

> It's become so common [..]

Yes, rarely a day goes by without me coming across a story entitled "Gen Z is $foo" or "Gen Z doesn't $bar" or similar.

> and acceptable [..]

Not sure about that, I stop reading as whenever I encounter such lazy writing!

Somehow we're hearing and making more noise than ever about diversity and inclusion, yet we've collectively forgotten what diversity actually means...

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#214

Post by andsoitis »

fuoqi wrote: post #188
andsoitis wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Russians whose capital had been frozen have direct ties to and prop up Putin. I don’t think you’d be able to name a single case that isn’t T like that.

How about Arkady Volozh? He got sanctioned not because he has "direct ties to and props up Putin", but because Yandex operates in Russia and has to follow its rules. Just look at the length of the list with sanctioned persons. Are you seriously saying that all of them have "direct ties to and prop up Putin"?

> How about Arkady Volozh?

He was sanctioned by the EU, no the US.

1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arkady_Volozh

2) https://www.reuters.com/technology/yandex-ceo-volozh-resigns...

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#215

Post by selimthegrim »

fmajid wrote: post #185
jacquesm wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that in turn might cause them to start a war... Because when the regime has nothing to lose all bets are off, even though it makes no sense whatsoever. They will have to distract from their culpability somehow.

Except if they think there is a significant likelihood they will lose, which would guarantee the downfall of the regime. The Argentinian junta thought the UK would be unable to respond to their invasion of the Falklands (and if they had waited a couple more years, they may well have been right), but I doubt China dismisses the US out of hand, specially after the sobering experience of Russia in Ukraine.

>The Argentinian junta thought the UK would be unable to respond to their invasion of the Falklands (and if they had waited a couple more years, they may well have been right)

Because of elections or ships and planes being retired?

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#216

Post by coffeeblack »

fuoqi wrote: post #112
coffeeblack wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rich Chinese are getting their money out of the country, because if their money is in China, they don't really own it. The CCP could take it any day and there would be nothing they could do about it. And then there is Western capital, used to rule of law and personal property. They don't see that reality as a realistic threat. So they keep pumping money into China. It will work. Until it doesn't. And then the CCP wil…

>because if their money is in China, they don't really own it The same can be said about money moved to the West, just with a different risk profile. As the Russian situation has shown, your property can be creatively taken away if your country of origin pisses off the US too much.

What I said was already 10+ ago in Hurun Report about why Chinese money flees to the West. But Chinese rich should probably ask you for advice.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#217

Post by wefarrell »

ChemSpider wrote: post #40
foota wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could be in preparation for supplying arms to Russia.

That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability. But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don't think that is priced into the current world stock market.

Wouldn’t they be more likely to sell off the shelf components that Russia can use in their missiles? It’s not like Russia lacks an industry that specializes in weapons production.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#218

Post by rhaway84773 »

roenxi wrote: post #62
ChemSpider wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability. But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don't think that is priced into the current world stock market.

> A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid... The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that…

The obvious question should be is why states around Russia and China choose to be U.S. friendly, whereas states around the US also choose to be US friendly.

For example, why does Canada KK pose restrictions on China despite them investing a ton of money in Canada, and the Philippines, barring a short neutrality under the ridiculous Dutarte also chooses to impose restrictions on China, and be closer to the U.S., despite China also investing a ton of money in them and being closer to them.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#219

Post by Kon-Peki »

selimthegrim wrote: post #215
fmajid wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except if they think there is a significant likelihood they will lose, which would guarantee the downfall of the regime. The Argentinian junta thought the UK would be unable to respond to their invasion of the Falklands (and if they had waited a couple more years, they may well have been right), but I doubt China dismisses the US out of hand, specially after the sobering experience of Russia in Ukraine.

>The Argentinian junta thought the UK would be unable to respond to their invasion of the Falklands (and if they had waited a couple more years, they may well have been right) Because of elections or ships and planes being retired?

Well, sure, it took quite a while for the British Navy to get there - they didn’t have ships or planes nearby.

But the UK economy wasn’t doing well and Margaret Thatcher was very unpopular especially with the working class. I doubt many British people cared that much about the Falklands and wouldn’t have minded if they had let it go.

But I think an awful lot of the British, and even Americans and Europeans, were completely shocked that Thatcher would not, under any circumstance, tolerate an invasion of British territory - even unwanted territory!

Had the Argentinians waited a few more years, the British may have just given the islands to them.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#220

Post by rhaway84773 »

treaxc wrote: post #132
andy_ppp wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Were the countries around China coerced to be friendly with America somehow? I’m pretty sure the CIA do a lot of evil shit to maintain American power around the world but I’m really not sure they are this omnipotent. I think these countries are simply more scared of China than they are the US, until that changes China will be surrounded by US friendly countries.

The point that roenxi made is that color revolutions in Russia and Kazakhstan would encircle China from the West and North in addition to the existing U.S. allies Japan and South Korea from the Southwest. It isn't a moral statement, just one realistic scenario that China is afraid of.

You’ve pretty much eliminated all agency that exists in those countries and their people.

This is the only way to support Russia and China today. By using a “Great Power” theory which pretends smaller countries have no agency and their people have no value, other than how they affect the interactions of those larger countries.

The U.S. is also surrounded by a bunch of countries. Somehow those countries aren’t clamoring to join the Warsaw Pact or kowtow to China.

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