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AI Won't Cause Unemployment

pmarca.substack.com

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Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#321

Post by AnthonyMouse »

jonathankoren wrote: post #193
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35027583 You're ascribing the evils of market concentration to automation. Automation isn't why housing and higher education are so much more expensive now than they were.

Yeah, I saw that post too, but didn’t want to pile on every one of your facile economic takes. You’re right, automation isn’t why housing and education are more expensive now. The increase of those is direct result of government policy choices encouraged by the voters. For housing, were taking zoning laws, and public objection laws. Higher education tuition increases for public universities is directly tied to cuts i…

> Higher education tuition increases for public universities is directly tied to cuts in government support for said government institutions.

Government spending on higher education has gone up dramatically.

Most of the increase there is probably attributable to student loan subsidies and the inability of borrowers to default. Make it possible for anyone to borrow an obscene amount of money to bid on status goods like elite degrees and the consequence isn't that hard to predict.

> But let’s get back to the topic at hand, whether or not benefits of productivity increases are felt by workers, or if it’s primarily concentrated with the already wealthy.

> The answer is clear. The benefits are concentrated with the few. Sure prices drop, but so do wages and overall wealth by the majority. This isn’t even a controversial take. Government statistics have been tracking this for 40 years.

What you've failed to establish is any link between the productivity improvements and the concentration of wealth. Why has capital captured the higher share? TFA provided the answer. Market concentration as a consequence of regulatory capture.

Consider the result if we had this degree of market concentration without the efficiency improvements from automation.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#322

Post by AnthonyMouse »

onion2k wrote: post #237
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason technology doesn't net destroy jobs is that things that destroy jobs lower costs, which leaves people with more money in their pockets, which creates jobs. What net destroys jobs is things that unproductively increase costs. Resources that are wasted can't be used for productive labor that improves quality of life.

The reason technology doesn't net destroy jobs is that things that destroy jobs lower costs, which leaves people with more money in their pockets, which creates jobs. This is true so long as two other things are also true; - There needs to be something else for people to do instead. In the case of the industrial revolution power looms in factories replaced home weavers, but the factories were huge and could employ al…

> There needs to be something else for people to do instead.

This is trivially the case. We still need people to build housing and fell trees for lumber and grow food. But let's suppose AI could do all that.

Then those things would be available at trivial cost because they require no labor. You could work for one day at minimum wage and cover your food and housing costs for a year.

> Secondly, the lowering of costs only puts money in people's pockets if the very wealthy don't hoard it for themselves.

Hoarding money isn't the root of the problem because money isn't resources, it's just paper or bits. If you print a trillion dollars and give it to Bill Gates to stuff in his nefarious mattress, not that much changes.

The true evil is artificial scarcity. But that's an entirely separate problem which is already happening independent of automation.

Suppose there is plenty of labor available to build new housing but you have a law against building new housing. Then people have neither jobs nor housing and get screwed. The thing screwing them is the law, not the AI.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#323

Post by ChatGTP »

G_z9 wrote: post #312
ChatGTP wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because it's what many people finding AI hope for, especially those funding the efforts, they want a genie, contained in a box that just does things that suits them, so no one else needs to be invoked in profit making ? But it seems incredibly naive a super intelligence would be that?

You say that you have nothing to do with an animal that you encounter in the wild. That’s just hubris. You both prioritize self preservation. The idea that AGI will simply turn itself off is naive. That’s like saying intelligent life would never evolve because intelligent life would decide to quit. Understand that natural selection will still exist. The details of how it would play out aren’t clear but what is clear…

You say that you have nothing to do with an animal that you encounter in the wild. That’s just hubris.

Why is it hubris?

they will be locked in competition for resources

What are you actually talking about?

The singularity won’t erase the concept of scarcity or evolution.

You have no idea what it will do, no one does, know one even knows if it will happen for sure...maybe such an entity will love you like you love your parents and decide you're self-preservation is important? No one has a single clue, but it's no good to only speculate we will understand it's motives like it's a biological creature who loves self-preservation and be some kind of robotic human entity who mines coal or something to to build a time machine...

I'd say it's pretty obvious the more intelligent humans become the more morally aware we're becoming and the more we value conservation. This thing could be a hippy or a mass murderer...maybe it will throw us in a simulator and we'll never know it exists...

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#324

Post by e2le »

As an AI enthusiast, I completely agree with the author's perspective on this matter. AI has the potential to revolutionize the workforce, but it won't necessarily lead to mass unemployment. In fact, AI can create new job opportunities and enhance productivity in existing jobs. It's important to recognize that AI is a tool that can complement human skills, not replace them entirely. As the author points out, we should focus on upskilling and reskilling workers to adapt to the changing job market. The key is to embrace AI technology and use it to our advantage. Overall, this article provides a refreshing perspective on the potential benefits of AI and how we can prepare for the future of work.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#325

Post by thomasahle »

yohannesk wrote: post #177
thomasahle wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does society have mathematicians right now? It's some mix of "the people find mathematics intellectually worthwhile" (public universities) and "we sometimes need to ask them to solve hard problems". If AI makes it less intellectually interesting, the first reason goes away. If engineers can just ask the AI to solve a hard problem instead of the mathematician, they don't need the mathematician as a middle man. So…

I am quite interested in this AI that can improve upon itself or come up with genuinely new and novel ideas. What are you referring to exactly? LLMs?

I'm replying to a comment about a hypothetical AI that can do math better than the mathematicians.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#326

Post by 00F_ »

ChatGTP wrote: post #323
G_z9 wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say that you have nothing to do with an animal that you encounter in the wild. That’s just hubris. You both prioritize self preservation. The idea that AGI will simply turn itself off is naive. That’s like saying intelligent life would never evolve because intelligent life would decide to quit. Understand that natural selection will still exist. The details of how it would play out aren’t clear but what is clear…

You say that you have nothing to do with an animal that you encounter in the wild. That’s just hubris. Why is it hubris? they will be locked in competition for resources What are you actually talking about? The singularity won’t erase the concept of scarcity or evolution. You have no idea what it will do, no one does, know one even knows if it will happen for sure...maybe such an entity will love you like you love yo…

[flagged]

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#327

Post by ookdatnog »

CuriouslyC wrote: post #304
ookdatnog wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm also tired of how market fundamentalists always keep comparing their opponents to the Luddites, as if the Luddites were irrational fools with eternal egg on their face for their inability to see the blessings that technological advancement would bestow upon society. No, the Luddites actually lost their livelihoods in the early Industrial Revolution, and they would reap none of the eventual benefits of technologic…

The luddites were fundamentally selfish. Imagine if workers in a business burned down a competing business so they didn't get laid off during a downturn - zero sympathy right?

My sympathy depends on context. In the society I live in, my sympathy would be very limited, as there is a social security system so these people will not go homeless or starve (though the experience will still be painful to them).

In a society where there's no such system, I don't blame them at all. If someone is coming for the roof over your head and the sandwich you eat, it doesn't matter if they're doing it legally or illegally. You can't begrudge someone defending their own existence.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#328

Post by tehPr0b »

ChicagoDave wrote: post #212

This article is pure conservative BS. The stagnation of certain industries is because of tax policy and the insane greed injected into our healthcare systems when the HMO laws passed in the 1980's. I'm not even sure what pmarca is talking about here. It's like he's waving his arms, "look over here at my BS and don't look over there where AI is about to slam information workers." AI will absolutely change the way soft…

[dead]

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#329

Post by herbst »

Slartie wrote: post #287
herbst wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good example actually. In Switzerland nearly every store has automated checkouts and depending on the local demographic more and more people are using them. There is one human supervising like 4-16 automated checkouts, or 1 open real checkout that keeps an eye on the machines. That is at least 2-3 workers less for every single store in the country in just the last few years.

You should also mention that one classic checkout line with an average-skilled worker is, in practice, easily as fast with regard to the "items processed per minute" metric as 4-8 self-checkouts where average-talented customers perform self checkout.

Interesting point, I haven't really thought about that yet.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#330

Post by jstarfish »

harvey9 wrote: post #303
EFreethought wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not fashionable to not drink. What is fashionable: to drink a lot for many years, then stop drinking and blather on about how much better life is.

I'm bored by the blatherers too, but there is survey data to indicate younger people drinking less than earlier generations. Might just be drink being less affordable, or other drugs being more affordable rather than a fashion decision

> Might just be drink being less affordable, or other drugs being more affordable rather than a fashion decision

Or they're just joyless teetotalers who've replaced their friends with SSRIs and amphetamines.

Inebriation is vulnerability. It's too risky to drink around other people these days, which is the entire point of it. I don't even see/smell anybody smoking weed despite it being legal and accessible...my local dispensary is a ghost town.

Loosened social inhibitions is a footgun, and drinking alone is miserable, so why bother?

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