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Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

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Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#121

Have been hearing these kind of "capital flight" stories for decade plus now somehow big financial institutions keep pushing more FDI into China. See i'm not an economist but you can't that sounds a bit counter intuitive too me. One story says China has capital flight and you have other stories talking about more and more Foreign directed investment into China.

Rich Chinese are getting their money out of the country, because if their money is in China, they don't really own it. The CCP could take it any day and there would be nothing they could do about it. And then there is Western capital, used to rule of law and personal property. They don't see that reality as a realistic threat. So they keep pumping money into China. It will work. Until it doesn't. And then the CCP wil…

Well those are some dumbass rich Chinese people, after 2022 they expect what happened to Russians in the west won't happen to them when a Taiwan war starts?

Come on you can't really talk about Rule of law when its as fluid as the west wants it to be right? When it comes to Russia and China they can quickly find majority rule to change laws.

Aah well its not my money on the line :p

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#122
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not so sure about that. China has brought a lot of US debt https://www.ey.com/en_cn/china-overseas-investment-network/o...

They bought US debt because they are confident the US will pay it off, it’s a ROI? Not to attract capital…

No. They bought it because the excess capital produced by artificially low exchange rate used to stimulate domestic production and exports is too big to be parked anywhere else.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#123
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid... The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that…

> The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. Following this then it would make sense for both China and Russia to feel threatened and react accordingly. I would expect the US to react even harder…

Not harder, but there was a reaction for sure

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#124
post #69

Have been hearing these kind of "capital flight" stories for decade plus now somehow big financial institutions keep pushing more FDI into China. See i'm not an economist but you can't that sounds a bit counter intuitive too me. One story says China has capital flight and you have other stories talking about more and more Foreign directed investment into China.

> ...and you have other stories talking about more and more Foreign directed investment into China. Source? All of my sources have it that foreign investors are shy after consistent rounds of government interference and even nationalization.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1016973/china-foreign-di...

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#125
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability. But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don't think that is priced into the current world stock market.

> A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid... The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that…

>surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support

As is the standard playbook of dictator/authoritarian apologism, you completely reverse causality here and deny non-authoritarian countries self-determination. The US isn't "executing a strategy" or "surrounding [Russia/China]", it's that Russia and China are engaging in terrifying behavior, attacking and undermining their surrounding countries, promoting a pure might-makes-right and historical grievance narrative, making vast claims over neighboring countries sovereignty with their "spheres of influence" and China's ludicrous ocean claims, and on and on. And as a direct result their neighbors are banging on the door to get into Western security agreements they see as being able to defend them! NATO was falling apart. European military capability has massively decayed. Much of Europe was completely content to make occasional noises but otherwise pursue economic integration above all else. What has changed everything has been Russia and China's actions.

Taking that and reversing it into a "woe is me why is everyone so mean" story is gross.

>While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that situation from the perspective of a hypothetical Chinese military planner. A destabilised Russia would potentially have a colour revolution leading to a US encirclement on 3 compass points. China would therefore have no choice but to support the war effort against Ukraine.

Here's an alternative thought: Russia just fucking LEAVES UKRAINE. Stops committing mass murder, rape, genocide, child abduction, theft, purposeful destruction of civilian infrastructure, and war crimes in general. That China NOT invade an independent democratic country like Taiwan. That they stick to international treaties and norms and focus on making themselves rich and happy. That ever occur to you? Apparently not. Hopefully "Chinese military planners" aren't quite so evil and blind but of course in dictatorships that tends to not be the case.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which part of the American government forced Putin to invade Ukraine? I presume you have some evidence of this because you sound so sure it was all planned?

1. NATO which is primarily funded by the US has been pushing up closer and closer against Russia’s border. 2. US helped orchestrate the 2014 coup that overthrew a democratically elected but Russian friendly government. 3. Ukraine, being a US client state, refused to uphold the Minsk peace agreements. 4. Immediately prior to the invasion the US/Ukraine side of the proxy war escalated shelling of Russian leaning parts…

> US helped orchestrate the 2014 coup that overthrew a democratically elected but Russian friendly government.

Extreme corruption and mismanagement had a much larger influence on the ‘coup’. I’m not saying that the current gov is clean, but that’s what leads to regime change. Also the election you were referring to was a complete sham, which is common with most Russian supported governments

> Ukraine has outlawed Russian language, culture, religion, political parties, and jail those who practice them.

This happened after the 1st invasion, and not prior to that

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability. But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don't think that is priced into the current world stock market.

It's not stupid. It's bold and almost risk-free. The US aren't the only people allowed to do proxy wars.

Unlike Russia, China is a net importer of food. You really think they can withstand even a fraction of the sanctions or tariffs we've put on Russia?

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#128
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability. But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don't think that is priced into the current world stock market.

>But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. Why? We haven't sanctioned the US for the children killed by Ukraine with US weapons in the Donbass.

No one in the entire world has the necessary economic leverage to bring the US to its knees by applying economic sanctions to it. Even if they had such leverage, they wouldn't use it since the US will simply declare war and use its military might to end the sanctions. They've sent gunboats to other people's countries for far lesser offenses.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which part of the American government forced Putin to invade Ukraine? I presume you have some evidence of this because you sound so sure it was all planned?

1. NATO which is primarily funded by the US has been pushing up closer and closer against Russia’s border. 2. US helped orchestrate the 2014 coup that overthrew a democratically elected but Russian friendly government. 3. Ukraine, being a US client state, refused to uphold the Minsk peace agreements. 4. Immediately prior to the invasion the US/Ukraine side of the proxy war escalated shelling of Russian leaning parts…

[flagged]

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#130

Capital flight will decrease (in the medium term, like by the end of the decade) as US Dollar dominance diminishes. Oil trades between China-Russia-India are now denominated in Rupee-Rubles or Renminbi-Rubles starting only this past year, and so the groundwork is already laid.

Why would USD dominance diminish? Something like 90% of IP is based out of the US. Chinese education system is a complete joke (as evidence by brain drain).
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