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AI Won't Cause Unemployment

pmarca.substack.com

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Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#181

Post by dogcomplex »

jonathankoren wrote: post #170
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just because there are new jobs doesn't mean the people whose jobs were automated out of existence will be able to take them. Yes it does, because those are the people whose labor will be available. They'll take whatever jobs they're qualified for, which may lower wages in those occupations until the lower price increases demand or reduces supply by driving anyone currently in those occupations who is qualified for…

> You get more production with less labor, so you on average need to do less labor to meet your cost of living. Citation Needed. This isn’t how it works out in practice though. If the predictions of the 1950s were to come true, we’d all be working 10 hours a week and bringing in the same wages. They weren’t wrong though. Efficiency did go up. It’s just that these efficiencies were never passed on to workers. Instead…

This is the most cynical take, but also sadly the most true to history and therefore probably the future. Sure, the future might have every one of us with the ability to boot up with a command a self-assembling automated factory that previously took a supply chain of thousands of workers to run, but due to the suddenly enormous cost of land and raw materials relative to our make-work wages, nobody can afford to build it.

I am somewhat serious, but also being a little factitious here. There's a breaking point of widespread democratized (runnable by like 1-5 people, or a small community) technology where these companies don't have the same ability to absorb all these gains. If/when the basics for living are largely automated and able to be bootstrapped for very cheap / very little labor by AI-assisted tools, then the only way people are going to settle for jobs that give less than what these provide is by top-down dictatorial artificial scarcity and rent-seeking, blatantly destroying this production ability. I think there's definitely a cynical reality where that happens - and definitely regions of the world where it will - but everywhere..? Eh...

My money for the cynical take is much more along the lines of "massive social upheaval kicks off a world war with terrifying consequences" or "AI eradicates humanity". Less than that and honestly - we're gonna be golden in the long run, and it's gonna be an awkward but neat short/medium run.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#182

Post by nathias »

All useful technologies replace old types of production that require labor and replace it with new types of production that require less labor. There are new jobs created but much less of them for that type, what the general consequences and if there will be mroe jobs created in other novel types of production is anybody's guess.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#183

Post by code51 »

Paul Graham surely didn't think social media would drive up teenage depression when investing at social media. It's hard to find any value in investors' words in these topics. Massive conflict of interest. It's that %0.1 trying to persuade %99.9.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#184

Post by Kiro »

thrashh wrote: post #117
_448 wrote: post #101

This claim that AI won't cause unemployment baffles me. I understand the argument being made that new types of jobs will be created, but what the people making that argument miss is the massive level of up-skilling/re-skilling that is required of the population whose jobs are replaced. This has not worked out well. Just look at the communities in some poorer parts of the UK, who were relying on coal, mining and steam…

It’s very surprising when people talk about AI but not talk about the Industrial Revolution. The power loom hugely changed the world. You don’t have to write a substack about your opinions — just read a history book. Second, Marc quotes outsourcing but that’s not at all a relevant example. Outsourcing was not a technology. His other example is of robots but robots have not been revolutionary like the power loom or ev…

What do you mean? Every article about this makes the comparison with the Industrial Revolution, including this one.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#185

Post by achenet »

I have a hard time accepting an argument against government regulation by a guy who supports large amounts of housing regulations to keep people from building anything near his property.

Deregulation, like charity, begins at home.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#187

Post by unmole »

kragen wrote: post #100
unmole wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I can't help but think Andreesen's gone off the deep end a bit The first time I heard of him was in 2016: https://www.fastcompany.com/3056581/marc-andreessen-riles-up... As far as I'm concerned, he's always been kooky.

he led the mosaic project at ncsa, creating the first web browser most people today would recognize as a browser, with things like images mixed in with text then he went off and founded netscape, creating the dot-com boom since then he's mostly been running a successful vc firm so yeah he's always been 'kooky'

Is there some definition of kooky that precludes someone from being brilliant?

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#188

Post by codekansas »

juanbyrge wrote: post #120

[flagged]

It is super hypocritical, but also, it's basically correct. I'd rather live in a world where random people showing up to Atherton city council meetings can block developments on property they don't even own (fortunately we seem to be moving that direction). This is very much an example of regulatory capture by vested interests

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#189

Post by voytec »

Popularization of computers in our lives did not caused massive unemployment and ML/AGI probably also won't. Some jobs became obsolete, some people needed to adjust but it's just life. Things change and most humans can be flexible.

On the other hand, there is this ongoing, politically-driven, toxic trend of making people from various groups consider themselves as victims of abuse. Changes may be problematic for those who demand from others but not self.

Re: AI Won't Cause Unemployment

#190

Post by staunton »

LeonB wrote: post #152
pythonaut_16 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet the proliferation of screens capable of displaying information and graphics has been an absolute boon to education.

I’m not denying it, but the cost of educating 1 child - has that fallen or risen?

The cost of educating 1 child was never lower than when they were taught by their parents how to work the fields while doing said work. Education costs tell us very little about both quality and efficiency of education.
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