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Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

noahpinion.substack.com

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Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#41

Post by seanmcdirmid »

Aloha wrote: post #35
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They aren’t really though. Labor is limited, material production is limited, there is a lot of supply and demand going on that can drive up prices. You can’t magic away those costs. Houston is cheap to live in because it simply isn’t a place that a lot of people want to live. Young people who dream of Texas dream of living in Austin, not Houston or Dallas. That puts growth on Austin, stoking supply and demand, wherea…

As far as I can tell based on the statistics I can find, both DFW and Houston have built around 50% more housing in a given year than Austin over a 20 year period.

The only data I can find is here, which is regional: https://theamericangenius.com/housing/big-data/these-50-us-c...

Austin is at 11 with 150k housing starts, Dallas is first at 320k starts for SFHs, 133k vs 233k for MFH. Austin is growing at 25%, Dallas at 15%. But Dallas area is 7.6 million vs Austin Area at 2.35 million. So while Dallas is building more in absolute terms, it isn’t in relative terms.

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#42

Post by buzzert »

gremlinsinc wrote: post #39
buzzert wrote: post #32

There are varying levels of tolerance of homelessness across the country. On the other side of the equation of tolerance are several factors, including politics but most especially rent prices. People in cities with low rent prices are far less likely to tolerate homelessness than cities with high rent prices. Cities with high rents will use high rents as a scapegoat for inaction in solving the problem (i.e., “we nee…

It's increasingly getting harder to find a 'somewhere else' to move. I mean in the 90s you'd move across town, now you need to move east of the Mississippi. The average home price in Utah was 350k 4-5 years ago. It is now 560k. I was close to being able to afford one, now I'm a decade out from it, and then maybe never. I'm more likely to buy some land and a tiny home, and call it a day. We need to control the greed t…

You don't have to move across the country. Considering SF, you can just move to Modesto, which is 1.5hrs away and has a third of the cost of living.

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#43

Post by buzzert »

petesergeant wrote: post #36
proc0 wrote: post #34

If the problem is housing, and some cities don't have homelessness problems because they have cheap housing... then why don't the homeless people in places with expensive housing go to the places with cheap housing? Is it maybe because they prefer living in the more expensive area even if it means sleeping outside? is there maybe some individual-level incentive playing a factor here? Something is not adding up. Some…

If I was down and out, I’d want to stay in the place my friends and family were, rather than pitching up in a whole new city, without a vehicle, funds, and without knowing how to get government assistance

You should also try to imagine that your friends and family want absolutely nothing to do with you also, and that would be a clearer picture of the problem.

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#44

Post by Aloha »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #41
Aloha wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I can tell based on the statistics I can find, both DFW and Houston have built around 50% more housing in a given year than Austin over a 20 year period.

The only data I can find is here, which is regional: https://theamericangenius.com/housing/big-data/these-50-us-c... Austin is at 11 with 150k housing starts, Dallas is first at 320k starts for SFHs, 133k vs 233k for MFH. Austin is growing at 25%, Dallas at 15%. But Dallas area is 7.6 million vs Austin Area at 2.35 million. So while Dallas is building more in absolute terms, it isn’t in relative terms.

Both are growing their hosing stock by between 5-11% of their population.

How many more houses would Portland metro, Seattle or SF bay have to build to match?

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#45

Post by AtlasBarfed »

forgotmypw17 wrote: post #5

Homelessness is primarily a problem created by the requirement to continuously upkeep your shelter financially or risk losing it. The ability to perform this upkeep can be wrecked by any number of things, which there is not enough space to list here. The overwhelming majority of people who fail at this upkeep are saved by their support network, so the actual problem is several orders of magnitude larger than any offi…

Everyday life is a treadmill, a neverending ceaseless treadmill, and bad things happen if you fall off that treadmill. For some people, the treadmill is cake: so easy to keep up with it is almost bothersomely slow.

But... get a bit of a leg cramp, or lose energy, age a little, or get a bit of mental trauma, and that simple treadmill gets much more terrifying and ominous each day you have to run it.

As I get older, those nutso men that shutter away in some far flung cabin with no contact with the world ... gets more appealing. Or simply a van down by the river.

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#46

Post by exabrial »

Aloha wrote: post #26
exabrial wrote: post #24

> we can build an ample supply of housing and subsidized housing. Sigh. That’s the conclusion? Land is cheap. Literally most of the US is empty. Housing is stupid cheap. Housing is crowded coastal cities is not. What the article did highlight really well (maybe accidentally) that homelessness sticks around for multiple reasons: 40% substance problem, mental illness problem, etc. maybe there’s always two factors, mayb…

There are no jobs in those places, and if there are, little housing, or little way for the people sleeping in a tent somewhere to go there. Furthermore people are afraid of moving to places they know no one, further away from their support network and familiarity - so they dont.

That is _definitely_ also not true

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#47

Post by Aloha »

exabrial wrote: post #46
Aloha wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no jobs in those places, and if there are, little housing, or little way for the people sleeping in a tent somewhere to go there. Furthermore people are afraid of moving to places they know no one, further away from their support network and familiarity - so they dont.

That is _definitely_ also not true

Isn't it?

When you say cheap I'm thinking cheap, not merely inexpensive

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#48

Post by seanmcdirmid »

Aloha wrote: post #44
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only data I can find is here, which is regional: https://theamericangenius.com/housing/big-data/these-50-us-c... Austin is at 11 with 150k housing starts, Dallas is first at 320k starts for SFHs, 133k vs 233k for MFH. Austin is growing at 25%, Dallas at 15%. But Dallas area is 7.6 million vs Austin Area at 2.35 million. So while Dallas is building more in absolute terms, it isn’t in relative terms.

Both are growing their hosing stock by between 5-11% of their population. How many more houses would Portland metro, Seattle or SF bay have to build to match?

Seattle is just behind Austin on the list, and ranks just above it in population (4 million). Seattle is already more than twice as dense as either Austin or Dallas (9000 per sqm vs 3000-4000 per sqm).

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#49

Post by proc0 »

1letterunixname wrote: post #38
proc0 wrote: post #34

If the problem is housing, and some cities don't have homelessness problems because they have cheap housing... then why don't the homeless people in places with expensive housing go to the places with cheap housing? Is it maybe because they prefer living in the more expensive area even if it means sleeping outside? is there maybe some individual-level incentive playing a factor here? Something is not adding up. Some…

"Let them eat cake." you say? Homeless people don't have the funds to relocate. The best place to be homeless is away from rich people because rich people are far stingier than average. I've mentioned this to homeless people panhandling in wealthier areas of the Bay Area: the Mexican grocery store down the way would be more productive than Whole Foods or Country Sun.

> Homeless people don't have the funds to relocate.

It's a trivial problem to solve given current government programs for food stamps, etc. Why is it even a limitation to begin with. If getting people housed is the objective, does it matter that much if it's in a different city? I understand if it's across the country, but there are plenty of cheap cities around SF, for example, yet SF is still attracting a lot of people that apparently cannot afford to live there.

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#50

Post by proc0 »

petesergeant wrote: post #36
proc0 wrote: post #34

If the problem is housing, and some cities don't have homelessness problems because they have cheap housing... then why don't the homeless people in places with expensive housing go to the places with cheap housing? Is it maybe because they prefer living in the more expensive area even if it means sleeping outside? is there maybe some individual-level incentive playing a factor here? Something is not adding up. Some…

If I was down and out, I’d want to stay in the place my friends and family were, rather than pitching up in a whole new city, without a vehicle, funds, and without knowing how to get government assistance

In that scenario, why would you not live with a relative until you can find work and pay rent? If they're not helping you at that point, they're not worth that much as family, in my opinion. I would guess most homeless people have no one to rely on, and so a fresh start somewhere else should at least be an option.
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