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Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

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Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#31

Post by seanmcdirmid »

Aloha wrote: post #30
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are assuming that the economics of house building is such that developers would do as many projects as they could if only they were allowed to, but even in the current market, property developers are still very picky and have to make sure they can make a decent profit; land costs are only one part of that. If you let developers build 100,000 market rate places in one city, (a) they actually don’t have the resourc…

First, I mentioned regions, and do be clear, I'm referring to regions - Thats the point, there is a point where is does reach equilibrium and the price of lower tier and less desirable housing starts to fall. The Bay Area has 7m people in it, SF proper 800k, you could grow the number of housing units by 10% every decade, or less - and it's more than feasible. Seattle Metro is 4m people, and Portland is 2m. That works…

They aren’t really though. Labor is limited, material production is limited, there is a lot of supply and demand going on that can drive up prices. You can’t magic away those costs.

Houston is cheap to live in because it simply isn’t a place that a lot of people want to live. Young people who dream of Texas dream of living in Austin, not Houston or Dallas. That puts growth on Austin, stoking supply and demand, whereas Dallas and Houston are growing much more slowly.

If you want affordable housing and are happy not living in a hot/popular location, things get much easier.

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#32

Post by buzzert »

There are varying levels of tolerance of homelessness across the country. On the other side of the equation of tolerance are several factors, including politics but most especially rent prices.

People in cities with low rent prices are far less likely to tolerate homelessness than cities with high rent prices. Cities with high rents will use high rents as a scapegoat for inaction in solving the problem (i.e., “we need to build more housing!” as if that’s a perfectly tenable thing to do on a landlocked peninsula filled with extraordinary regulations on building).

If someone becomes homeless (or rather, is becoming homeless) because they can’t pay their rent, wouldn’t they… move somewhere cheaper? That is in fact what usually happens. Those who become homeless instead often do for reasons other than not being able to afford rent; these people are quitting society. Japan has Hikikomori, and we have the homeless.

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#33

Post by [deleted] »

Aloha wrote: post #26
exabrial wrote: post #24

> we can build an ample supply of housing and subsidized housing. Sigh. That’s the conclusion? Land is cheap. Literally most of the US is empty. Housing is stupid cheap. Housing is crowded coastal cities is not. What the article did highlight really well (maybe accidentally) that homelessness sticks around for multiple reasons: 40% substance problem, mental illness problem, etc. maybe there’s always two factors, mayb…

There are no jobs in those places, and if there are, little housing, or little way for the people sleeping in a tent somewhere to go there. Furthermore people are afraid of moving to places they know no one, further away from their support network and familiarity - so they dont.

[deleted]

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#34

Post by proc0 »

If the problem is housing, and some cities don't have homelessness problems because they have cheap housing... then why don't the homeless people in places with expensive housing go to the places with cheap housing? Is it maybe because they prefer living in the more expensive area even if it means sleeping outside? is there maybe some individual-level incentive playing a factor here? Something is not adding up. Some cities have cheap housing, and others have expensive housing. In theory people could relocate and avoid sleeping outside, at least a huge portion of them, yet instead we see increasing populations in places with expensive housing.

I'm just saying there is something missing from the picture because if housing was the primary cause, relocating would be the obvious solution that most people would rationally choose. Instead it seems like people insist in staying in the expensive housing areas, because I assume the cheap housing areas are boring, and they might not have as many government programs.

It doesn't surprise me that government can't solve this problem, because they are unable to analyze it in the proper level of detail and instead use super high level statistical correlations which have not led to any results.

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#35

Post by Aloha »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #31
Aloha wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, I mentioned regions, and do be clear, I'm referring to regions - Thats the point, there is a point where is does reach equilibrium and the price of lower tier and less desirable housing starts to fall. The Bay Area has 7m people in it, SF proper 800k, you could grow the number of housing units by 10% every decade, or less - and it's more than feasible. Seattle Metro is 4m people, and Portland is 2m. That works…

They aren’t really though. Labor is limited, material production is limited, there is a lot of supply and demand going on that can drive up prices. You can’t magic away those costs. Houston is cheap to live in because it simply isn’t a place that a lot of people want to live. Young people who dream of Texas dream of living in Austin, not Houston or Dallas. That puts growth on Austin, stoking supply and demand, wherea…

As far as I can tell based on the statistics I can find, both DFW and Houston have built around 50% more housing in a given year than Austin over a 20 year period.

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#36

Post by petesergeant »

proc0 wrote: post #34

If the problem is housing, and some cities don't have homelessness problems because they have cheap housing... then why don't the homeless people in places with expensive housing go to the places with cheap housing? Is it maybe because they prefer living in the more expensive area even if it means sleeping outside? is there maybe some individual-level incentive playing a factor here? Something is not adding up. Some…

If I was down and out, I’d want to stay in the place my friends and family were, rather than pitching up in a whole new city, without a vehicle, funds, and without knowing how to get government assistance

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#37

Post by gremlinsinc »

proc0 wrote: post #34

If the problem is housing, and some cities don't have homelessness problems because they have cheap housing... then why don't the homeless people in places with expensive housing go to the places with cheap housing? Is it maybe because they prefer living in the more expensive area even if it means sleeping outside? is there maybe some individual-level incentive playing a factor here? Something is not adding up. Some…

If your SO or child got sick, and drove up multiple 6-figures, and you had to mortgage everything, and when they finally died, and the bank took your house, you hit despairing times, regardless of if it drives you to depression, drink, drugs, etc -- you couldn't cope, executive function went out the window and you ended up on the street.

Would you A. stick around, or B. Go some place foreign, say you already live in the cheapest part of America, so your options are go expat, maybe India, or Romania, or someplace with cheaper cost of living, but how do you afford to get there? What of other family, friends, etc? There's lots of things that tie people to a certain area.

My house isn't just my home, my entire community, city, etc is. Even being homeless, they could still consider where they do live to be their 'home', so why should they, or would they move?

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#38

Post by 1letterunixname »

proc0 wrote: post #34

If the problem is housing, and some cities don't have homelessness problems because they have cheap housing... then why don't the homeless people in places with expensive housing go to the places with cheap housing? Is it maybe because they prefer living in the more expensive area even if it means sleeping outside? is there maybe some individual-level incentive playing a factor here? Something is not adding up. Some…

"Let them eat cake." you say?

Homeless people don't have the funds to relocate.

The best place to be homeless is away from rich people because rich people are far stingier than average. I've mentioned this to homeless people panhandling in wealthier areas of the Bay Area: the Mexican grocery store down the way would be more productive than Whole Foods or Country Sun.

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#39

Post by gremlinsinc »

buzzert wrote: post #32

There are varying levels of tolerance of homelessness across the country. On the other side of the equation of tolerance are several factors, including politics but most especially rent prices. People in cities with low rent prices are far less likely to tolerate homelessness than cities with high rent prices. Cities with high rents will use high rents as a scapegoat for inaction in solving the problem (i.e., “we nee…

It's increasingly getting harder to find a 'somewhere else' to move. I mean in the 90s you'd move across town, now you need to move east of the Mississippi.

The average home price in Utah was 350k 4-5 years ago. It is now 560k. I was close to being able to afford one, now I'm a decade out from it, and then maybe never. I'm more likely to buy some land and a tiny home, and call it a day.

We need to control the greed that is homeownership/rent-seeking, and put caps on things, or at least institute a land-value tax tied to rent : wages ratios.

Re: Homelessness is primarily a housing problem

#40

Post by 1letterunixname »

Bold and presumptuous title like we're a hivemind.

There are plenty of homeless people in America who are merely poor and nothing else: no drugs, not drunks, not criminally-antisocial, not crazy, and not desiring to sleep on hostile architecture bus benches. Some are too old to work and don't have a support system. There are no magic bootstraps to pull on and US social services rarely seek out to assist individuals.

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