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“Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

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Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#171

Post by labrador »

tnel77 wrote: post #159
labrador wrote: post #7

I'm going to comment in a different direction: As someone who achieved great success at a young age (under 30) it is almost impossible for it not to go your head, mostly because everyone treats you like you are a genius. Unfortunately for me, I lived the adage that "pride goeth before the fall"

If I may ask, what happened?

I was part of a small startup that was purchased by a big company, making me a worth a couple of million. It became a Tony Hsieh situation for me, with too much money and a large ego that told me I knew better than anyone. It wasn't until I surrendered and started doing what people told me to do to get better that I recovered. I had to be broke before that happened. It was quite a ride. I lived and survived all in one piece so I'm not complaining!

Zappos Founder Tony Hsieh Surrounded by Drugs and Nitrous Oxide Cartridges in Fatal Fire

https://www.thewrap.com/zappos-founder-tony-hsieh-surrounded...

Edit: I journaled about it recently, which I'll share in case in helps anyone:

I wasn't awake when I was younger. Like in the 80's when I suddenly made a lot of money. I didn't go to the beach and sit on a bench on a pier to think about it. What does this mean? How is this going to change my life? What do I have to do to manage a lot of money? What are my responsibilities to family that are still be struggling? That's what I mean when I say I was asleep. I was asleep in the ignorance of my youth. I did not have situational awareness. My self-awareness was low.

Bottom line: I grew up without much money. Since I was successful I thought I was smart enough to figure out how to handle a lot of money. Turns out, managing money is a skill that I don't have and wasn't going to figure out because it didn't interest me, so you know the saying "A fool and his money are soon parted"

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#172

Post by scarface74 »

shon wrote: post #134
bluefirebrand wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly it just looks to me like the lottery you won is not "having a successful business", but "having the luxury and connections to try and fail 5-7 times with one success" Most people cannot afford to recover from failing once.

>Most people cannot afford to recover from failing once. That’s not true in my experience. I’m a similar case, have started 8 businesses in 30 years. Most have had some level of success: enough pay my employees and provide good healthcare while also making a (often small) profit. I’ve also had 2 exits, one of which generatied a life-changing amount of money for my co-founder and myself. Of the 6 business that did not…

It’s called survivorship bias

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#173

Post by scarface74 »

encoderer wrote: post #82
bluefirebrand wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly it just looks to me like the lottery you won is not "having a successful business", but "having the luxury and connections to try and fail 5-7 times with one success" Most people cannot afford to recover from failing once.

This is a little pessimistic. Just take smaller risks. I built my first business over nights and weekends and didn’t quit my day job for 5 years. If you want something bad enough you just have to take the chance.

Yes “because wanting something bad enough” is the key to success…

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#174

Post by asah »

eddsh1994 wrote: post #163
asah wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

+1. I have 3 IPOs and numerous acquisitions, across multiple industries. It's still 50/50 but that's way better than the long odds most people face. Also agree that it depends on your goals! I've done venture capital deals, self funded deals ("lifestyle"), non-profit & political campaigns, etc - and different stages and goals. Obviously YMMV: I know people who legit get lucky and then their luck runs out, and I know…

Did you found those IPOs and acquisition startups? That’s very impressive if so!

thanks. I was very early, but not a founder of the IPOs. If you have access to dealflow and add value (e.g. as staff, investor or adviser), then it's much easier to "pick winners" and let others take the bigger risks and enjoy the billionaire lifestyle. By valley standards, I'm a small but respected player.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#175

Post by scarface74 »

dan-robertson wrote: post #158
jollofricepeas wrote: post #20

This is stupid. Any of us who have had at least two “successful” businesses will tell you that this quote is ridiculous. What’s your ideal of being successful? If it’s exiting at a billion, then sorry. But you can use a lot of this entrepreneur advice to find some level of success. The problem is that non-entrepreneur or first timers always try to skip the small stuff. 1. have a good team and hire right. you need jus…

I think it’s probably right that some people are better at running successful startups than others. They might be more willing to try / fail, have better ideas, etc, and it isn’t just stuff like having good connections to funding. I think it could still be true that the advice isn’t very good but not for the reason the tweet gives (I agree the tweet is stupid). In particular, I think there could be a lot of tacit thi…

Unless your startup was profitable before you sold it, it could just as well be luck and connections and not skill. It takes a lot more skill to run a “profitable” business.

I wander how many of those “successful” startups will be successful when they can’t spend years living off of VC funding?

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#176

Post by mock-possum »

loudandskittish wrote: post #58
bluefirebrand wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly it just looks to me like the lottery you won is not "having a successful business", but "having the luxury and connections to try and fail 5-7 times with one success" Most people cannot afford to recover from failing once.

Yeah, this is one of the things that drives me nuts about these "inspirational" stories where some millionaire/billionaire talks proudly about how their first business failed, their car was repo'd, bank foreclosed on them, etc... but I've never heard one talk about what they did between that and the successful business. Where did they sleep? How did they afford food?

right, also we don't like hearing stories about all the entrepreneurs who failed to find success, and slipped into impoverished obscurity. How many kids are sitting in the back seat of the car, lamenting "I could have been a contender" you know? You don't hang out with the ones who failed to keep their heads above water, because you're afraid they're going to drown you too.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#177

Post by renewiltord »

mrcrumb1 wrote: post #161
renewiltord wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This does not sound believable. Even assuming a 2 h / day commute each way, this person is working 56 h weeks with 28 h of commute? Introduce me to this poor person doing this (if they're within 50 mi of 94103) and if they have 2800 h of wages to show for last year, I will pay $1k just to talk to them for 2 h in a place of their convenience at a time of their convenience. I think it's much more likely that people who…

Surely you're aware that children and debt exist.

Okay, it's true. People can make choices that close doors for them. That part is true.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#178

Post by scarface74 »

m3kw9 wrote: post #101
jollofricepeas wrote: post #20

This is stupid. Any of us who have had at least two “successful” businesses will tell you that this quote is ridiculous. What’s your ideal of being successful? If it’s exiting at a billion, then sorry. But you can use a lot of this entrepreneur advice to find some level of success. The problem is that non-entrepreneur or first timers always try to skip the small stuff. 1. have a good team and hire right. you need jus…

Luck is involved in everything because whatever you have decided, it’s not a sure shot of winning. The decision to make the product a certain way for example, or certain timing, marketing spend etc and all of them matter

The chance of the average CS grad - well at least until this year - of being able to “grind leetcode and working for a FAANG” (c) r/cscareerquestions and ending up with over 1 million dollars of before tax “profits” in four years is much greater than your average “startup founder” that’s not even counting the risk premium.

And yes I’m far away from a new college grad.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#179

Post by scarface74 »

designium wrote: post #61
jollofricepeas wrote: post #20

This is stupid. Any of us who have had at least two “successful” businesses will tell you that this quote is ridiculous. What’s your ideal of being successful? If it’s exiting at a billion, then sorry. But you can use a lot of this entrepreneur advice to find some level of success. The problem is that non-entrepreneur or first timers always try to skip the small stuff. 1. have a good team and hire right. you need jus…

What’s TAM?

Or “the $x market is one quadrillion dollars if we just capture 1% the company will be worth billions” - or the first slide of the pitch deck of every startup seeking venture capital.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#180

Post by scarface74 »

hash872 wrote: post #22
dvt wrote: post #3

Absolute cope in the twitter comments, and it's weird seeing this on HN, which (at least historically) was a pretty entrepreneur-friendly forum. Yes, we get it, Zuck and Gates and Jobs were "lucky." But that doesn't mean starting a business is like going to the race track, and this extreme oversimplification reminds me of equally-reductive positions (solipsism, nihilism, etc.) where zero knowledge is imparted, and th…

Agreed. If Jeff Bezos started over in a non-tech industry, with no money or previous connections, is the author arguing that his chances at being successful in say a garden supply or waste management company the same as any other person? That seems absurd. If entrepreneurs have no useful advice then there's no right or wrong way to structure or run a company, it's all random and any method will do. Just generalizing…

Or if Elon Musk tried to buy a social media company it would be successful?
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