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“Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

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Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#161

Post by mrcrumb1 »

renewiltord wrote: post #106
thfuran wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you know that some people spend their weekend working to make rent rather than launching apps that they hope might work?

This does not sound believable. Even assuming a 2 h / day commute each way, this person is working 56 h weeks with 28 h of commute? Introduce me to this poor person doing this (if they're within 50 mi of 94103) and if they have 2800 h of wages to show for last year, I will pay $1k just to talk to them for 2 h in a place of their convenience at a time of their convenience. I think it's much more likely that people who…

Surely you're aware that children and debt exist.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#162

Post by unactionintel »

starkparker wrote: post #98
SamReidHughes wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Where did they sleep? Maybe at least one of their parents had a sofa . The trick is to have parents who aren't homeless.

Here's how I fare on that. Each checked box is something I have. [X] "The trick is to have parents", [ ] who are alive, [ ] "who aren't homeless", [ ] who have housing that is safe and functional, [ ] who have room for you not already occupied by other family members in greater need, [ ] who "had a sofa", [ ] or if they're dead, at least left you with enough money as an equivalent

I'm never sure what to do with this class of comment - it reminds me of guys who say they can't get a girlfriend because they're 5'8".

(Also, you forgot people whose parents are able-but-unwilling. This also sometimes makes some things harder than they would be, compared to, say, being given fistfulls of cash each weekend by your rich parents who have a sofa AND a bed.)

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#163

Post by eddsh1994 »

asah wrote: post #59
jollofricepeas wrote: post #20

This is stupid. Any of us who have had at least two “successful” businesses will tell you that this quote is ridiculous. What’s your ideal of being successful? If it’s exiting at a billion, then sorry. But you can use a lot of this entrepreneur advice to find some level of success. The problem is that non-entrepreneur or first timers always try to skip the small stuff. 1. have a good team and hire right. you need jus…

+1. I have 3 IPOs and numerous acquisitions, across multiple industries. It's still 50/50 but that's way better than the long odds most people face. Also agree that it depends on your goals! I've done venture capital deals, self funded deals ("lifestyle"), non-profit & political campaigns, etc - and different stages and goals. Obviously YMMV: I know people who legit get lucky and then their luck runs out, and I know…

Did you found those IPOs and acquisition startups? That’s very impressive if so!

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#164

Post by timoth3y »

That was an overly simplistic and silly take. But there is a kernel of truth to it that has always bothered me a little.

I've started four startups with two exists and two failures. In every cases there were deals that, if they had come through, would have have pushed the startups to huge success. There were were also deals that, if they had not happened, would have killed that startup.

If you are skilled, you prepare. You plan contingencies. You are ready to take advantage of any opportunity that comes, but after that, a lot is outside of your control and comes down to luck.

The line between success and failure is often razor thin, but the world does not see it that way.

If you are an inch over the line you are a success; a role model. You are expected to share the secret to your success. If you are an inch behind the line, well maybe you had better go work for someone else and let the successful people talk.

Many successful founders give terrible advice, and many failed founders have fantastic insights.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#165

Post by dragonwriter »

bcrosby95 wrote: post #92
SamReidHughes wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Where did they sleep? Maybe at least one of their parents had a sofa . The trick is to have parents who aren't homeless.

Having a strong support group in your life is probably one of the most important things to success. Few paths go straight from a to b without a misstep.

> Having a strong support group in your life is probably one of the most important things to success.

This. “It's not what you know its who you know.” Though often the people who give that advice privately are the most invested in maintaining the illusion of meritocracy publicly.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#166

Post by harshalizee »

shon wrote: post #151
gnulinux wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a heartbreaking comment to read: > Any of us who have had at least two “successful” businesses will tell you that this quote is ridiculous. > I’ve also failed miserably and had 5-7 business go under or never even really get off the ground. This means that you incurred (2+) / ((2+) + (5-7)) chance of creating a successful business. This is in the spirit of the OP. Creating a business may involve some skill, but u…

I disagree. I’ve also failed multiple times but achieved what for me is a satisfying level of success in the process. As a ratio I’ve failed a lot more than I’ve won but it is not a lottery. It’s more like a golf game, it’s hard to do well but you do learn and improve with each attempt.

That's exactly the lottery. The fact that you can play multiple rounds of "golf" is the privilege that the OP is talking about. You are lucky enough to be able to afford buying multiple lottery tickets and some hit the jackpot.

Most people will never even have the opportunity to afford one lottery ticket.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#167

Post by dorkwood »

lovecg wrote: post #130
Swenrekcah wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn’t he come from a South-African diamond family or something?

If Wikipedia or Snopes are to be believed on the matter (and I really don’t know anymore), this is way overblown. Mines (emerald, not diamond btw) are cheaper than you think. If my dad buys half of a tiny mine in his retirement I’ll start walking around claiming I’m from a mine owning family! The story of how he even got to own the mine sounds pretty wild: “According to the story, in the mid-1980s, Errol and a copilo…

> It proceeds to say he made about $400000 from the mine in total - hardly a billionaire villain level money.

Just to clarify for anyone else wondering, that’s 400,000USD inflation adjusted for 2021. Converted to South African rand, it’s about 7.2 million.

To put that in context, the average home price in South Africa is about a million rand. So at most they would have been able to buy 7 properties. If they bought in an expensive area, they likely would have only been able to afford 4 or 5.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#168

Post by dragonwriter »

shon wrote: post #151
gnulinux wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a heartbreaking comment to read: > Any of us who have had at least two “successful” businesses will tell you that this quote is ridiculous. > I’ve also failed miserably and had 5-7 business go under or never even really get off the ground. This means that you incurred (2+) / ((2+) + (5-7)) chance of creating a successful business. This is in the spirit of the OP. Creating a business may involve some skill, but u…

I disagree. I’ve also failed multiple times but achieved what for me is a satisfying level of success in the process. As a ratio I’ve failed a lot more than I’ve won but it is not a lottery. It’s more like a golf game, it’s hard to do well but you do learn and improve with each attempt.

> As a ratio I’ve failed a lot more than I’ve won but it is not a lottery.

It may not be precisely a lottery, but if most of the successful people are “I’ve failed a lot more thab I’ve won”, then, the ability to afford to fail a lot more than you win.

Especially with the narratives where the failures involve periods of homelessness, etc., possibly mitigate by couch-surfing or other network support—having a network that mitigates in that way is fortune. Surviving homelessness without it in a way that lets you to buy another totally-not-a-lottery-ticket at business? Even more a matter of fortune.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#169

Post by physicles »

wpietri wrote: post #125
jollofricepeas wrote: post #20

This is stupid. Any of us who have had at least two “successful” businesses will tell you that this quote is ridiculous. What’s your ideal of being successful? If it’s exiting at a billion, then sorry. But you can use a lot of this entrepreneur advice to find some level of success. The problem is that non-entrepreneur or first timers always try to skip the small stuff. 1. have a good team and hire right. you need jus…

That there are successful entrepreneurs, or that some of them may give good advice, doesn't mean that he doesn't have a valid point about entrepreneurial advice as a genre. I think there are three keys to the problem: 1) readers want feel-good success stories, 2) successful people strongly benefit from positive PR, and 3) people often can't usefully talk about why they succeeded. The first, I think, is pretty obvious…

The third one resonates. As someone who also started coding at a young age, here’s what worked for me: 1. Have at least 10 free hours each week, 2. Get fanatically addicted to coding, 3. Repeat for 8 years and then do a four year CS degree. Pretty useless advice.

Apropos the article, it’s easy to imagine there’s a similar lottery for most paths in life, including entrepreneurship. “Be born rich enough that you have the innate confidence that the universe will bend to your will” is a lottery I didn’t win.

Surely, a kernel of the current political polarization is the left’s insistence that these lottery tickets matter, and the right’s insistence that the wealth they’re holding is the result of their own hard work. (To be clear, it’s a spectrum — tickets come in different sizes, and hard work plays a role — but such nuance has no place in public discourse)

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#170

Post by spencerchubb »

dvt wrote: post #48
thfuran wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you know that some people spend their weekend working to make rent rather than launching apps that they hope might work?

Of course, but we're not talking about people in poverty, or that are homeless, etc. You're just bringing up a weird red herring that's orthogonal to my point--namely, that the bar is extremely accessible (esp. compared to ventures prior to the advent of computers).

> but we're not talking about people in poverty

Um... the parent comment is in fact talking about that

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