“Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice • Hacker News Board

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#51

Post by trimbo » Sat, Mar 04, 2023, 10:06 PM UTC

jollofricepeas wrote: post #20

This is stupid. Any of us who have had at least two “successful” businesses will tell you that this quote is ridiculous. What’s your ideal of being successful? If it’s exiting at a billion, then sorry. But you can use a lot of this entrepreneur advice to find some level of success. The problem is that non-entrepreneur or first timers always try to skip the small stuff. 1. have a good team and hire right. you need jus…

I agree that measure of success is relative and like the principles you list, but your reply lands reinforcing the point of the tweet.

Does 2 out of 9 successful startups mean your tenets listed here will lead to your level of success 22% of the time? Or do they only lead to success 0.022% of the time and you're the 1 out of 5000? How do you know?

It's not just this topic, it's a problem with general advice humans give to other humans without applying any specific context.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#52

Post by dvt » Sat, Mar 04, 2023, 10:06 PM UTC

dmitriid wrote: post #44

dvt wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imo, this is completely false in the realm of software where anyone can launch a new app/project basically every other weekend and feel out what sticks & has traction.

That anyone at the very least needs access to a smartphone, powerful-enough computer, and internet. 18% of households in the US say they can't afford home internet service: https://ntia.gov/blog/2022/switched-why-are-one-five-us-hous...

Not sure what this has to do with anything; my point was just that the bar is much more accessible, generally speaking, than it was prior to software being a thing. It wasn't some grand thesis about the affordability of internet or larger social problems (housing, poverty, etc.).

Seems like you're just trying to grandstand.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#53

Post by szundi » Sat, Mar 04, 2023, 10:07 PM UTC

As a successfully exited entrepreneur I can tell you that a lot of stuff I considered important in my success later I started to consider optional. Or more precisely: there are kind of combinations of strategies/behaviors that strengthen each other, and that's why it is 1) too complex to write recipies like i see here at the top, 2) different clientale, context and the industry itself makes different kind of these work more or less.

Basically I think it is a bit arrogant to "know" it, but also it is quite pessimistic not to think and talk about these as successful serial-entrepreneurs have a lot to say that has merit.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#54

Post by throwawaysleep » Sat, Mar 04, 2023, 10:07 PM UTC

thfuran wrote: post #40

dvt wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imo, this is completely false in the realm of software where anyone can launch a new app/project basically every other weekend and feel out what sticks & has traction.

Did you know that some people spend their weekend working to make rent rather than launching apps that they hope might work?

If your day job doesn’t pay enough to make rent, you should move to another city.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#55

Post by jp57 » Sat, Mar 04, 2023, 10:07 PM UTC

I think the take home message is that successful entrepreneurs can tell you everything that’s necessary for success and it still may not be sufficient.

Some luck is still required.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#56

Post by boca_honey » Sat, Mar 04, 2023, 10:07 PM UTC

jollofricepeas wrote: post #20

This is stupid. Any of us who have had at least two “successful” businesses will tell you that this quote is ridiculous. What’s your ideal of being successful? If it’s exiting at a billion, then sorry. But you can use a lot of this entrepreneur advice to find some level of success. The problem is that non-entrepreneur or first timers always try to skip the small stuff. 1. have a good team and hire right. you need jus…

You won the lottery in the sense that you went to college, live in a well-off english speaking country and as such, can burn through 5-7 failures. I'm sure you're smart and hard working, and I don't believe in shaming gringos as if being born rich (e.g. having access to a toilet and clean water) was their own fault. You deserve to be happy with what you have. But will never get to be preachy about it without some one calling you out, unless you surround yourself with people with the same biases.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#57

Post by twawaaay » Sat, Mar 04, 2023, 10:08 PM UTC

I work with some pretty successful people who started their companies.

I can tell you, the sentence is pure BS.

Successful people may not know why exactly they got successful. Or they may not understand how much what they do contributed to the outcome. But they certainly tend to be sharp people putting a lot of hard, HONEST work and doing a lot of things right.

Even if you could say it was luck, think in terms of being the kind of person that creates a lot of chances for luck and prepares so that when they get lucky they do most out of it.

It is a bit like a person who never bought a lottery ticket complaining the other one won. After playing it every day.

Don't be salty. Try to understand what successful people do that makes them successful. Just because they can't explain it well doesn't mean there isn't wisdom to be had.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#58

Post by loudandskittish » Sat, Mar 04, 2023, 10:08 PM UTC

bluefirebrand wrote: post #46

jollofricepeas wrote: post #20

This is stupid. Any of us who have had at least two “successful” businesses will tell you that this quote is ridiculous. What’s your ideal of being successful? If it’s exiting at a billion, then sorry. But you can use a lot of this entrepreneur advice to find some level of success. The problem is that non-entrepreneur or first timers always try to skip the small stuff. 1. have a good team and hire right. you need jus…

Honestly it just looks to me like the lottery you won is not "having a successful business", but "having the luxury and connections to try and fail 5-7 times with one success" Most people cannot afford to recover from failing once.

Yeah, this is one of the things that drives me nuts about these "inspirational" stories where some millionaire/billionaire talks proudly about how their first business failed, their car was repo'd, bank foreclosed on them, etc... but I've never heard one talk about what they did between that and the successful business. Where did they sleep? How did they afford food?

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#59

Post by asah » Sat, Mar 04, 2023, 10:09 PM UTC

jollofricepeas wrote: post #20

This is stupid. Any of us who have had at least two “successful” businesses will tell you that this quote is ridiculous. What’s your ideal of being successful? If it’s exiting at a billion, then sorry. But you can use a lot of this entrepreneur advice to find some level of success. The problem is that non-entrepreneur or first timers always try to skip the small stuff. 1. have a good team and hire right. you need jus…

+1. I have 3 IPOs and numerous acquisitions, across multiple industries. It's still 50/50 but that's way better than the long odds most people face.

Also agree that it depends on your goals! I've done venture capital deals, self funded deals ("lifestyle"), non-profit & political campaigns, etc - and different stages and goals.

Obviously YMMV: I know people who legit get lucky and then their luck runs out, and I know smart guys who do everything right and can't catch a break.

It's also fun to angel invest. Get to see dozens more companies from (a bit) of the inside.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#60

Post by oxfordmale » Sat, Mar 04, 2023, 10:10 PM UTC

ldjkfkdsjnv wrote: post #23

Pretty clear to me after meeting a number of very successful people in NYC/SF that some people "just have it". Meaning, they can identify opportunities that have a high probability of success and execute on those opportunities. There are absolutely personality types/genetic backgrounds where stumbling into 100M based on thinking of an idea is a real thing. Also, if someone went to a school like Stanford, its common f…

Your first sentence is selection bias. Of course, successful people look like they "just have it". Once you have succeeded, convincing investors to fund another opportunity is far easier. The real question is how to succeed in the first place.

Having the right connections helps in getting funding. If you went to Stanford, your network would have many connections that are able to invest 5M. If you are raised in the slums, you are far less likely to have these connections, regardless of your genetic background or personality.