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“Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

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Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#21

Post by toss1 »

SahAssar wrote: post #9
dvt wrote: post #3

Absolute cope in the twitter comments, and it's weird seeing this on HN, which (at least historically) was a pretty entrepreneur-friendly forum. Yes, we get it, Zuck and Gates and Jobs were "lucky." But that doesn't mean starting a business is like going to the race track, and this extreme oversimplification reminds me of equally-reductive positions (solipsism, nihilism, etc.) where zero knowledge is imparted, and th…

I think the point is more that most people don't know why they succeeded or fail.

Plus, the fact that having the winning lottery ticket numbers being your parents' telephone number, means that you can fail quietly until you succeed, then everyone sees the success.

Corollary: Nearly every "overnight success" happens 'overnight', sure. But the 'overnight' period is after decades of slogging it out in the trenches of obscurity. The ability to freely take risks with life with high potential payoffs is partly attitude, and partly being able to get up on the high wire with a net underneath, so you can try again until you succeed. Many end up succeeding without really knowing why, or noticing that they had the net to keep trying until they did.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#22

Post by hash872 »

dvt wrote: post #3

Absolute cope in the twitter comments, and it's weird seeing this on HN, which (at least historically) was a pretty entrepreneur-friendly forum. Yes, we get it, Zuck and Gates and Jobs were "lucky." But that doesn't mean starting a business is like going to the race track, and this extreme oversimplification reminds me of equally-reductive positions (solipsism, nihilism, etc.) where zero knowledge is imparted, and th…

Agreed. If Jeff Bezos started over in a non-tech industry, with no money or previous connections, is the author arguing that his chances at being successful in say a garden supply or waste management company the same as any other person? That seems absurd.

If entrepreneurs have no useful advice then there's no right or wrong way to structure or run a company, it's all random and any method will do. Just generalizing from other fields of study we know this isn't true anywhere else, so why would it be true for running a business?

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#23

Post by ldjkfkdsjnv »

Pretty clear to me after meeting a number of very successful people in NYC/SF that some people "just have it". Meaning, they can identify opportunities that have a high probability of success and execute on those opportunities. There are absolutely personality types/genetic backgrounds where stumbling into 100M based on thinking of an idea is a real thing.

Also, if someone went to a school like Stanford, its common for them to raise 5M in funding with nothing. From there, they can try for a few years with a decent chance at coming up with something, raising more money, pulling money off the table in round B, and then basically getting rich with no innovation at all. There are all these payoffs that exist from being in a certain class of prestige

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#24

Post by nordsieck »

angarg12 wrote: post #16

My general take on successful people giving advice is to ask yourself "how reproducible is this?". When the advice hinges on a unique set of circumstances that you can't reproduce, then they are likely giving you their lottery ticket. Otherwise you might want to listen more closely.

> My general take on successful people giving advice is to ask yourself "how reproducible is this?". When the advice hinges on a unique set of circumstances that you can't reproduce, then they are likely giving you their lottery ticket. Otherwise you might want to listen more closely.

I think this is tricky - advice can be reproducible within a limited environment, but still be fragile. For example, extremely risky real estate investing can work within a market cycle. But if you try to bridge cycles without consolidation, you're going to be in for a bad time.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#25

Post by dvt »

superkuh wrote: post #18
SahAssar wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point is more that most people don't know why they succeeded or fail.

The most predictive reason for failure or success is the commonly referenced https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15659076 >Entrepreneurship is like one of those carnival games where you throw darts or something. >Middle class kids can afford one throw. Most miss. A few hit the target and get a small prize. A very few hit the center bullseye and get a bigger prize. Rags to riches! The American Dream lives on. >Rich k…

Imo, this is completely false in the realm of software where anyone can launch a new app/project basically every other weekend and feel out what sticks & has traction.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#26

Post by talentedcoin »

ldjkfkdsjnv wrote: post #23

Pretty clear to me after meeting a number of very successful people in NYC/SF that some people "just have it". Meaning, they can identify opportunities that have a high probability of success and execute on those opportunities. There are absolutely personality types/genetic backgrounds where stumbling into 100M based on thinking of an idea is a real thing. Also, if someone went to a school like Stanford, its common f…

Sorry, but I don’t think you know anything about “genetic background” if you think it correlates with making money.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#27

Post by altdataseller »

jollofricepeas wrote: post #20

This is stupid. Any of us who have had at least two “successful” businesses will tell you that this quote is ridiculous. What’s your ideal of being successful? If it’s exiting at a billion, then sorry. But you can use a lot of this entrepreneur advice to find some level of success. The problem is that non-entrepreneur or first timers always try to skip the small stuff. 1. have a good team and hire right. you need jus…

What was the revenue of the 2nd bootstrapped success?

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#29

Post by chmod600 »

jiveturkey wrote: post #17
dvt wrote: post #3

Absolute cope in the twitter comments, and it's weird seeing this on HN, which (at least historically) was a pretty entrepreneur-friendly forum. Yes, we get it, Zuck and Gates and Jobs were "lucky." But that doesn't mean starting a business is like going to the race track, and this extreme oversimplification reminds me of equally-reductive positions (solipsism, nihilism, etc.) where zero knowledge is imparted, and th…

I'm going to disagree; it is like going to the race track (I assume you mean horses). You might just be lucky, period, and still succeed. (Lightning does strike. ha, great name for a horse.) But your chances are FAR better if you are well prepared, know the stats, know the jockeys, have inside info on what a horse has been fed, maybe even that morning, and so on. You might be able to rig things in your favor via insi…

"But your chances are FAR better if you are well prepared, know the stats..."

Gambling is zero sum.

Businesses, even failed ones, generally do some positive things along the way.

Learning to do things that are useful and getting paid for them is really different from learning some useless information that happens to help you win at the expense of others.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#30

Post by furyofantares »

Entrepreneurs make tons of decisions and lots of creative work that meaningfully impact their chances of success.

Maybe the chances are still quite low if you do everything really well, and maybe an entrepreneur giving advice is likely to massively overestimate that, driving the sentiment behind this tweet. But they're certainly higher than if you do everything really poorly.

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