“Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice
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Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice
#2Cynical take, but probably popular in today's social media. I don't think it's right to say building a company is only based on random chance. It clearly also involves at least some skill.
Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice
#3Absolute cope in the twitter comments, and it's weird seeing this on HN, which (at least historically) was a pretty entrepreneur-friendly forum. Yes, we get it, Zuck and Gates and Jobs were "lucky." But that doesn't mean starting a business is like going to the race track, and this extreme oversimplification reminds me of equally-reductive positions (solipsism, nihilism, etc.) where zero knowledge is imparted, and therefore zero knowledge is gained.
Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice
#4I only ever found one foolproof system to win the lottery, and it allowed me to win on every single ticket. I owned a retail store that sold lottery tickets. The retailer gets a small commission on every sale, and one on any ticket cashed in at the store.
Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice
#5[dead]
Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice
#6It works first and second order.
First order, every number is equally (un)likely and there is no harm in choosing yesterday’s number, because it is nevertheless no more unlikely today than any other.
Second order, you want to avoid split pots, so doing what others are doing reduces EV… your number should be as random as you can make it… and any lottery that actually produced the same numbers twice in a short period of time would be subject to increased scrutiny, which must also be factored in (you might get no prize if it is discovered, even if the conclusion were untrue, that the lottery were rigged) so yesterday’s numbers actually are objectively bad choices.
Either way, the metaphor stands quite well.
Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice
#7I'm going to comment in a different direction: As someone who achieved great success at a young age (under 30) it is almost impossible for it not to go your head, mostly because everyone treats you like you are a genius. Unfortunately for me, I lived the adage that "pride goeth before the fall"
Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice
#8Cynical take, but probably popular in today's social media. I don't think it's right to say building a company is only based on random chance. It clearly also involves at least some skill.
Saying it's only based on luck is clearly wrong. Saying no luck is involved is clearly wrong.
Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice
#9Absolute cope in the twitter comments, and it's weird seeing this on HN, which (at least historically) was a pretty entrepreneur-friendly forum. Yes, we get it, Zuck and Gates and Jobs were "lucky." But that doesn't mean starting a business is like going to the race track, and this extreme oversimplification reminds me of equally-reductive positions (solipsism, nihilism, etc.) where zero knowledge is imparted, and th…
I think the point is more that most people don't know why they succeeded or fail.
Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice
#10Cynical take, but probably popular in today's social media. I don't think it's right to say building a company is only based on random chance. It clearly also involves at least some skill.
Is the OP trying to make a point about success being random or about how you shouldn’t mindlessly copying somebody else’s path to success?