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Americans need to be richer than ever to buy their first home

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Re: Americans need to be richer than ever to buy their first home

#31
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s almost as if the incentive structures were meant to make the rich richer and the poor poorer. If houses get cheap I know for sure I still won’t be able to afford even 1

Some people are so trapped in poverty mentalities that they can’t even imagine buying a house when it’s cheap, they’ll just imagine they’ll be even poorer.

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Re: Americans need to be richer than ever to buy their first home

#32

I think this is only half of the story. There are still lots of affordable houses - in parts of the country that no one wants to live anymore. The value of my sibling's property in Illinois has barely kept up with inflation. So I think some of the national statistics about house prices vs number of units are a bit misleading. We're increasingly paying a premium because we are increasingly concentrating where we want…

Very much this.

Many of my friends in Southern California lament that they'll never be able to buy a home because in their minds houses _start_ at $750k. I bought a house for roughly one-third of that in a place that none of them would be caught dead so much as visiting. It's almost as though areas that are nice to live in are consequently in high demand which drives property values up... obviously NIMBYism, Prop 13, and a host of perverse incentives are also at play here but it doesn't change the fact that you gotta pay to play.

If anybody's interested I just found this handy map [1] that illustrates precisely what I'm talking about, and since it's adjusted for income it paints a decent picture of why things are the way that they are.

[1] https://abag.ca.gov/tools-resources/maps/map-month/how-large...

Re: Americans need to be richer than ever to buy their first home

#33

I think this is only half of the story. There are still lots of affordable houses - in parts of the country that no one wants to live anymore. The value of my sibling's property in Illinois has barely kept up with inflation. So I think some of the national statistics about house prices vs number of units are a bit misleading. We're increasingly paying a premium because we are increasingly concentrating where we want…

But also the places people want/need to live are generally not building housing. The town next to mine has actually lost population since the year 2000 despite being in a very attractive location. Incidentally, most of the town is zoned exclusively for single family houses despite there being lots of duplexes there already. You can probably see how these two things might be related. :)

Re: Americans need to be richer than ever to buy their first home

#34
post #10

This is something I hope the government can step in and help with. Maybe really low/no interest loans for first time home buyers so they can at least get into the market. Maybe that exists? Income limits need to account for up to date salaries. I'm not rich or wealthy just because I had a couple years of making 250k. I still have loans and im still burning up cash on renting. Taxes take away a ton of that income. Som…

If we don't expand the housing supply dramatically, additional subsidies to home buyers will lead to even more inflated housing prices, and transferring even more money from the working class (who pay taxes and want to buy houses) to old rich people (who own most of the desirable property). If we were to expand the housing supply by 20% over the next 5 years I would expect to see house prices and rent crash to a more…

The problem would be building 20%. That is a lot of housing. I’m not sure that even 5% would be possible with low interest rates. With interest rates where they are now, builders are going to be very conservative.

Re: Americans need to be richer than ever to buy their first home

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we don't expand the housing supply dramatically, additional subsidies to home buyers will lead to even more inflated housing prices, and transferring even more money from the working class (who pay taxes and want to buy houses) to old rich people (who own most of the desirable property). If we were to expand the housing supply by 20% over the next 5 years I would expect to see house prices and rent crash to a more…

The problem would be building 20%. That is a lot of housing. I’m not sure that even 5% would be possible with low interest rates. With interest rates where they are now, builders are going to be very conservative.

Maybe it’s time to admit that more entities besides private ones need to be building and supplying housing then? Maybe some things just aren’t well suited for market driven development.

Re: Americans need to be richer than ever to buy their first home

#36

I think this is only half of the story. There are still lots of affordable houses - in parts of the country that no one wants to live anymore. The value of my sibling's property in Illinois has barely kept up with inflation. So I think some of the national statistics about house prices vs number of units are a bit misleading. We're increasingly paying a premium because we are increasingly concentrating where we want…

Very much this. Many of my friends in Southern California lament that they'll never be able to buy a home because in their minds houses _start_ at $750k. I bought a house for roughly one-third of that in a place that none of them would be caught dead so much as visiting. It's almost as though areas that are nice to live in are consequently in high demand which drives property values up... obviously NIMBYism, Prop 13,…

That map could almost be an electoral one if you flipped the red and blue.

Which should tell you something about why your friends in SoCal don’t want to live in those cheaper places.

Re: Americans need to be richer than ever to buy their first home

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how this helps the narrative. You'd expect they would. This is like cigarette companies putting out memos defending cigarettes as less-harmful.

"McDonalds sells cocaine to children!" McDonalds: "No we don't." "Ha! That's just what they would say". The ridiculous thing about this set of accusations is that Blackrock is a passive investment management firm. They don't make any more intentional investment decisions than, like, a typical bank.

[deleted]

Re: Americans need to be richer than ever to buy their first home

#38
post #10

This is something I hope the government can step in and help with. Maybe really low/no interest loans for first time home buyers so they can at least get into the market. Maybe that exists? Income limits need to account for up to date salaries. I'm not rich or wealthy just because I had a couple years of making 250k. I still have loans and im still burning up cash on renting. Taxes take away a ton of that income. Som…

> Maybe really low/no interest loans for first time home buyers so they can at least get into the market.

These sort of "fixes" make the problem worse rather than better. By making it easier for people to buy high priced houses, it increases demand for high priced houses, and increases house prices.

Re: Americans need to be richer than ever to buy their first home

#39
post #13
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe really low/no interest loans for first time home buyers so they can at least get into the market. One big reason homes are priced so high in places like the USA is because home loans are already government subsidized. When people think of what they can afford, they look at their net monthly mortgage payment less the income tax break. And prices seem to rise to meet whatever monthly payment buyers can afford.

> because home loans are already government subsidized. Are they? Maybe Im more ignorant then I thought? Im still stuck looking at high intrest loans as a first time buyer who works in tech though?

30 year fixed rate mortgages really aren't a market thing. They largely exist due to government support.

If you are getting a conforming loan in the US - chances are the federal government is buying that note via fannie or freddie and the bank simply services the loan for a fixed fee.

Re: Americans need to be richer than ever to buy their first home

#40

Or they just need to have parents who will help with down payment. Estimates are that over half of first time buyers get family assistance. It’s the new feudalism.

Yeah that’s what I’ve started doing for my kids in addition to college savings. I just haven’t figured out what the best type of account is if I want the money available in 15 years if I’m not 59 1/2 yet.
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