Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Denver’s e-bike subsidy program produced more new riders, fewer car trips

ridereport.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 170 posts

Re: Denver’s e-bike subsidy program produced more new riders, fewer car trips

#51

Post by ww520 »

hathawsh wrote: post #23
d_sem wrote: post #4

When you factor in the reduced capital costs, carbon emissions, noise pollution, traffic, wear on infrastructure, health benefits, etc of electric bicycles the opportunity cost of car ownership over e-bike adoption is tremendous. The average cost of owning a car in 2022 is $10,728 per year: a figure which blows my mind.(edit: Source bankrate.com, the top hit on google) As a personal anecdote, my household has gone fr…

Am I well below the average? I spent $22k on a new car in 1999 that I stopped driving in 2022. I would guess I spent $15k on maintenance and repairs, but let's go on the high end and say $20k for that. That means it cost me an average of $42k / 23 = $1826 per year for that car, excluding fuel. In a year that I drove 10k miles, when the car's fuel economy was 24 MPG and the fuel cost $4 per gallon, the fuel would cost…

Yeah, those are crazy numbers. They're assuming the average consumer will drive a $40K car with no downpayment taking on 7~8% loan, with no capture of value when selling the car.

If that's the case, it just speaks volume of the inflation and the devaluation of the money that the cost of $10K for car being normalized.

With inflation, the money the consumer will get back when selling the car will be higher. That's not factored into the ownership cost.

Re: Denver’s e-bike subsidy program produced more new riders, fewer car trips

#52

Post by bradleyjg »

I’m not exactly sure what counts as an e-bike but here in nyc we have people riding vehicles that are significantly heavier than a typical bike, go 20ish miles an hour, and require no peddling in bike lanes. Can’t say I care for that.

Re: Denver’s e-bike subsidy program produced more new riders, fewer car trips

#53

Post by webdood90 »

simonsarris wrote: post #5

Not mentioned in the summary but super relevant to understand what they are talking about: > After nine months, the City had spent $4.7 million to provide vouchers to 4,734 Denver residents [for ebikes and equipment to ride in the winter] I'm a bit skeptical of some of this data: > 65% of Ride Report's Ride App users were riding at least once daily, and 90% were riding weekly. In the report, it mentions the Ride App…

In Denver and I question this data as well. It sounds like a nice program but I imagine it subsidized a lot of bikes that are sitting in storage for the majority of their lives.

There should have been more aggressive terms - completely free bikes if you don't have a car or get rid of one. There is no incentive to actually use them with the current strategy.

Re: Denver’s e-bike subsidy program produced more new riders, fewer car trips

#54

Post by hathawsh »

jeffbee wrote: post #41
alistairSH wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insurance, registration, property taxes (in some areas). Not sure if that annual costs includes parking and other things that cost, but aren’t obvious for many people (many of us park for “free”, but we’ve paid for those space through higher rents, mortgages, etc). For the rest of the money, the average new car costs around $50k today. And the average ownership length is about 8 years. Average loan length is approach…

It's hilarious to me that anyone would overlook 25 years of registration fees, considering that Californians literally overthrew their government because of registration fees. Maybe in their jurisdiction it's not that costly.

Registration for my 1999 car was only $70 per year and there were no property taxes. Insurance was a more significant cost and harder to estimate, but still not major.

Regardless, I agree that these expenses add up fast. If I replaced my regular commutes with a $3000 e-bike that lasts 2 years, and I spent $2k per year on Ubers and rentals for various things that require a vehicle, I would come out ahead.

Re: Denver’s e-bike subsidy program produced more new riders, fewer car trips

#55

Post by crazygringo »

hathawsh wrote: post #23
d_sem wrote: post #4

When you factor in the reduced capital costs, carbon emissions, noise pollution, traffic, wear on infrastructure, health benefits, etc of electric bicycles the opportunity cost of car ownership over e-bike adoption is tremendous. The average cost of owning a car in 2022 is $10,728 per year: a figure which blows my mind.(edit: Source bankrate.com, the top hit on google) As a personal anecdote, my household has gone fr…

Am I well below the average? I spent $22k on a new car in 1999 that I stopped driving in 2022. I would guess I spent $15k on maintenance and repairs, but let's go on the high end and say $20k for that. That means it cost me an average of $42k / 23 = $1826 per year for that car, excluding fuel. In a year that I drove 10k miles, when the car's fuel economy was 24 MPG and the fuel cost $4 per gallon, the fuel would cost…

Following the links [1] with quotes I've selected, the answers seem to be mainly:

1) You forgot about insurance

2) Your car's value was in 1999 dollars, not 2022 -- $1 in 1999 was worth $1.71 in 2022, so you need to adjust your yearly cost upwards into 2022 dollars

3) You haven't mentioned loan interest, which is additional cost if you financed it, which the average person needs to do

4) If $22K was below average for a new car in 1999, then your yearly cost will be below average as well

So just multiplying by 1.5 for inflation (an estimation) and adding $1,771 insurance brings us to $7,010. With some cost of financing and if it's a little below average to begin with, it seems to be roughly accurate.

--

Source quotes:

"The average cost of full coverage car insurance in 2022 is $1,771 per year"

"Monthly loan payments for new cars jumped to an average of $700 in the third quarter of 2022, while used vehicle loans averaged $525 per month, according to Experian."

"Registration fees vary from state to state. While some states charge a flat fee for all vehicles, others base the registration cost on age, horsepower or weight of the vehicle. Registration fees in Oregon are the highest in the country, ranging from $268.50 to $636.50 for first time registration. Arizona has the cheapest registration fee of just $8..."

"A car’s depreciation varies widely. In 2021, the average annual cost of depreciation is $3,900, according to AAA."

[1] https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/car/cost-of-car-ownership...

Re: Denver’s e-bike subsidy program produced more new riders, fewer car trips

#56

Post by lostmsu »

smileysteve wrote: post #44
hathawsh wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Am I well below the average? I spent $22k on a new car in 1999 that I stopped driving in 2022. I would guess I spent $15k on maintenance and repairs, but let's go on the high end and say $20k for that. That means it cost me an average of $42k / 23 = $1826 per year for that car, excluding fuel. In a year that I drove 10k miles, when the car's fuel economy was 24 MPG and the fuel cost $4 per gallon, the fuel would cost…

Yes, you are below average; the average new car is owned for 8 years and the median for 4 years.

But then it is sold, so you recoup part of the value.

Also, average new car cost is the wrong metric. One ether has to use average car cost, including used cars, or track ownership costs of a new car excluding any secondary market transactions. E.g. until it is not road worthy anymore.

Re: Denver’s e-bike subsidy program produced more new riders, fewer car trips

#57

Post by aimkey »

flyingpenguin wrote: post #34
ProAm wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - Average Insurance ~ $1,771 per year > - Average Car Monthly Loan ~ $700 per month Both of these are crazy high. Maybe not for everyone, but 1771 per year for insurance you should be shopping around or using a broker. And a car payment of 700, that is up to the buyer, but IMHO that is absurdly high.

Have you noticed how few sedans are on the road? I recently considered switching from a sedan to a cross-over... the sticker shock was upsetting. I make 2x as much as most of my friends and I absolutely refused to buy a cross-over, they all have cross-overs or trucks. Ended up with a Hundai hatchback for 15k less, and bought a roof rack for 1k. When the 4 of us go snowboarding we use my small car instead of their hug…

Three specific demographics prefer the (from the factory) higher ride height of SUVs:

1) Women

2) The elderly

3) The overweight

Women have a say in over 70% of vehicle purchases in the US. So even if the vehicle is for dad, mom (who is 5’4” on average) preferring the higher ride height of the SUV will influence the purchase if she has to drive it occasionally.

The elderly and the fat have a harder time getting in and out of lower-riding cars/hatches. The country is getting both older and fatter at the same time.

These are the driving forces in crossover dominance.

Re: Denver’s e-bike subsidy program produced more new riders, fewer car trips

#58

Post by __MatrixMan__ »

PaulsWallet wrote: post #22

My problem with e-bikes is my problem with regular bikes. Riding on the sidewalk is generally not permitted and I don't trust drivers in cars to not murder me while driving in the street.

It's definitely a case where being the change you want to see requires an uncommon risk tolerance.

After a while of doing it you realize that the risks aren't the ones you initially thought they were. I've stopped thinking "my life is in your hands stranger" every time someone passes me too closely. But I'm still hyper vigilant about the ones that pull out in front of me, presumably they tuned me out as noise because I present a relatively small image at that angle.

I take longer routes to avoid the risky spots, which is an option I'm lucky to have, and I feel relatively safe.

I'm not trying to encourage you to take my path, just giving some anecdata of what it's like.

Re: Denver’s e-bike subsidy program produced more new riders, fewer car trips

#59

Post by lostmsu »

flyingpenguin wrote: post #40
PaulsWallet wrote: post #22

My problem with e-bikes is my problem with regular bikes. Riding on the sidewalk is generally not permitted and I don't trust drivers in cars to not murder me while driving in the street.

The amount of public real-estate we dedicate exclusively to enabling peoples usage of their private property in the united states (and to lesser extents all other countries really) is absolutely absurd. I have considered just walking slowly in random lanes of traffic while in downtown areas recently. On what grounds do you need thousands of acres of space? Speed limits should often be 4-5mph and space usage should be…

How would you deliver furniture and maintenance machinery to your place?

Re: Denver’s e-bike subsidy program produced more new riders, fewer car trips

#60

Post by asciimike »

JPKab wrote: post #31

I'm a huge fan of programs like this, but one thing that cities like Denver (especially Denver) need to be wary of are things that actively worsen bike commutes over time. I live nearby, and one of the things that is a frequent topic of conversation is how dangerous certain bike trails in Denver are due to assaults and muggings. This is a new phenomenon, and there are bike trails in Denver I wouldn't go near on an ex…

Denver resident who routinely rides bikes on those trails--mind providing some citations on those so we can know where to avoid? I've never had issues with folks in underpasses while running/biking (mostly early morning hours or commute hours), but could imagine there being issues at different times.
Post reply on HN