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Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

nationalgeographic.com

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Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#51

Post by jiggyjace »

teaearlgraycold wrote: post #27
cammikebrown wrote: post #9

I think we have fifteen years left, at most, before climate change starts making much of the planet uninhabitable

Much of the planet? Really? I can understand writing off Phoenix, AZ or parts of South East Asia and the Middle East.

Phoenix being unlivable is such a fearmongered point. Much of Arizona is already out of extreme drought, and is set up to be extremely livable due to solar & nuclear power plus innovations made in air conditioning and pulling water out of the air.

Sources: AZ drought monitor: https://www.drought.gov/states/arizona

The most powerful nuclear plant is in AZ: https://electricenergyonline.com/article/energy/category/gen...

Innovations on pulling water from the hot, dry air: https://worldwaterreserve.com/source-hydropanels/

Solar adoption in AZ: https://azbigmedia.com/business/arizona-energy-industry/ariz...

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#53

Post by fallingfrog »

cammikebrown wrote: post #9

I think we have fifteen years left, at most, before climate change starts making much of the planet uninhabitable

I think that climate scientists are making accurate, reliable predictions when it comes to climate change- however, I have not heard any climate scientist saying things this extreme. It's important to not distort the situation in either direction. The earth will likely heat by 3 degrees C or thereabouts but it will take 50 years or more to get there, from what I understand.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#54

Post by ygjb »

melling wrote: post #38
dnsco wrote: post #5

The optimism reminds me of all of the "In the year 2000, cars will fly!" of yore.

100 doesn’t sound extremely optimistic. Jimmy Carter is 98. Kissinger is 100. Munger is 99. Buffett is 92, Dick Van Dyke is 97, Mel Brooks is 96,… The body can last well into the late 90’s. It’s probably just a matter of treating people who get heart disease, cancer(s), etc that will get more people there.

Those are all individuals who had access to the finest health care on the planet, and teams of folks at various periods of their lives to focus on them and their health. Access to health care, and personalized health care on top of that is just one other aspect of the degree of luck it took them to reach those ages.

Whether it's a car accident, an earthquake, or an aggressive oncogene that gets activated by a cosmic ray or cup of diet pop, there are way too many things that will straight up kill us despite our otherwise healthy or privileged lifestyles.

Treating diseases does have an impact on extending the average lifespan, but early health interventions (that is, vaccinations, fewer babies dying from preventable illness or malnutrition, and women's pre- and peri-natal health care) has been far more impactful. Stretching that long-tail out in the future is going to require significant advances in treating and remediating aging and it's related indignities.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#55

Post by clmay »

taf2 wrote: post #25
dnsco wrote: post #5

The optimism reminds me of all of the "In the year 2000, cars will fly!" of yore.

I don't own one of them but... https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/xpeng-flying-car-gitex-du... I think we at least can say we have them... :D

So... You don't have one? And don't personally know anyone who does? Sounds like "we" don't really have them, then.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#56

Post by seanmcdirmid »

gorjusborg wrote: post #47
melling wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

100 doesn’t sound extremely optimistic. Jimmy Carter is 98. Kissinger is 100. Munger is 99. Buffett is 92, Dick Van Dyke is 97, Mel Brooks is 96,… The body can last well into the late 90’s. It’s probably just a matter of treating people who get heart disease, cancer(s), etc that will get more people there.

Right now, life expectancy in U.S. is dropping, not rising: https://datacommons.org/place/country/USA The fact that some individuals survive longer than the average isn't an indication of the average outcome. I sincerely hope that the trend does change direction, but I am currently skeptical.

You need to ignore dips and look at long term trends when reading graphs. If the end of your graph ends in a dip, that in no way implies the start of a downward trend.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#57

Post by guessbest »

melling wrote: post #38
dnsco wrote: post #5

The optimism reminds me of all of the "In the year 2000, cars will fly!" of yore.

100 doesn’t sound extremely optimistic. Jimmy Carter is 98. Kissinger is 100. Munger is 99. Buffett is 92, Dick Van Dyke is 97, Mel Brooks is 96,… The body can last well into the late 90’s. It’s probably just a matter of treating people who get heart disease, cancer(s), etc that will get more people there.

You are picking the wealthiest people in the world as an example. Most of the population to even wealthy do not have access to this kind of health care, which is going to be exacerbated by health care rationing as populations explode due to international immigration.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#58

Post by stemlord »

mfer wrote: post #34

This is not likely. Life expectancy is going down while chronic disease is going up. Most of it has to do with lifestyle in ways the average person isn't aware of. The health care system is more capable than ever before. But, lifestyles that are poor to long term health are taking the trend in the opposite direction.

Healthcare in america is also too expensive

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#59

Post by raghudotcc »

mfer wrote: post #34

This is not likely. Life expectancy is going down while chronic disease is going up. Most of it has to do with lifestyle in ways the average person isn't aware of. The health care system is more capable than ever before. But, lifestyles that are poor to long term health are taking the trend in the opposite direction.

I agree, I feel chronic diseases due to bad lifestyle is going to be the single biggest cause of mortality unless we figure a way out of it. These things compound and don’t show up as cause for concern until early 30s/40s. You then are left with notions like treatments, management, and maintenance. Even if you end up living like this till 80 or 100, I don’t think you can have the same quality of life that you could have had if it weren’t for them.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#60

Post by nasseri »

melling wrote: post #38
dnsco wrote: post #5

The optimism reminds me of all of the "In the year 2000, cars will fly!" of yore.

100 doesn’t sound extremely optimistic. Jimmy Carter is 98. Kissinger is 100. Munger is 99. Buffett is 92, Dick Van Dyke is 97, Mel Brooks is 96,… The body can last well into the late 90’s. It’s probably just a matter of treating people who get heart disease, cancer(s), etc that will get more people there.

Your talking about some of the richest and most well cared for people on the planet, not the average person
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