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Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

nationalgeographic.com

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Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#41

Post by ginko »

0xDEF wrote: post #31
passwordoops wrote: post #18

Unless of course there's a another global scale war fought by rival superpowers on multiple fronts. But the odds of that happening in the next decade are pretty low, right? Right?...

China and the US depend too much on eachother to fight a large scale war. Russia's geopolitical ambitions has currently been limited to forcefully annexing Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Odessa from Ukraine. They will most likely get Donetsk and Luhansk and fail at permanently annexing the other regions. Neither will lead to a large scale global war.

> China and the US depend too much on eachother to fight a large scale war.

They also said that in 1914.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#42

Post by Ekaros »

If average life expectancy starts to close 100. What will the retirement age be? Will we have lot more 80 year olds working? And will their quality of life be good?

I don't see much actually changing the aging process itself. Just making people survive longer.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#43

Post by A_D_E_P_T »

cammikebrown wrote: post #9

I think we have fifteen years left, at most, before climate change starts making much of the planet uninhabitable

Ah, but only 22 years left until Kurzweil had estimated that the singularity would begin, which prediction is looking increasingly prescient. So. You might just be able to upload yourself and live indefinitely.

The statement above could be wrong. You could also be wrong. (Certainly very few people are acting as though they believe that CO2 emissions are going to turn the Earth into an uninhabitable flooded fireball.) But techno-optimism beats pessimism, easy. If nothing else, it makes it easier to live with yourself.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#45

Post by terran57 »

mfer wrote: post #34

This is not likely. Life expectancy is going down while chronic disease is going up. Most of it has to do with lifestyle in ways the average person isn't aware of. The health care system is more capable than ever before. But, lifestyles that are poor to long term health are taking the trend in the opposite direction.

Exactly, people aren't taking care of themselves so that they don't get the chronic diseases that reduce their lifespans. The majority don't realize that what they do in their middle-age years has a profound impact on their life expectancy.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#46

Post by renewiltord »

cammikebrown wrote: post #9

I think we have fifteen years left, at most, before climate change starts making much of the planet uninhabitable

We will make a deal, then. 10 years from now, I will give you 100k units of currency from a country. 15 years from now, you will give me 10 million units of that currency. The country must have steady state inflation of the preceding 5 years of under 10%. The country must be one of the ones you believe will become uninhabitable.

Easy money for you since you can convert to a safe currency and then pay out in the worthless currency later.

If no country meets the requirements, we just fold and there's no deal. But if one does, you've got yourself free money. If you think you'll have trouble with obtaining units, we can run it like a swap in what you believe to be safer currency.

I'll need a written contract so I'll send someone to you if you're in San Francisco.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#47

Post by gorjusborg »

melling wrote: post #38
dnsco wrote: post #5

The optimism reminds me of all of the "In the year 2000, cars will fly!" of yore.

100 doesn’t sound extremely optimistic. Jimmy Carter is 98. Kissinger is 100. Munger is 99. Buffett is 92, Dick Van Dyke is 97, Mel Brooks is 96,… The body can last well into the late 90’s. It’s probably just a matter of treating people who get heart disease, cancer(s), etc that will get more people there.

Right now, life expectancy in U.S. is dropping, not rising: https://datacommons.org/place/country/USA

The fact that some individuals survive longer than the average isn't an indication of the average outcome.

I sincerely hope that the trend does change direction, but I am currently skeptical.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#48

Post by RcouF1uZ4gsC »

mfer wrote: post #34

This is not likely. Life expectancy is going down while chronic disease is going up. Most of it has to do with lifestyle in ways the average person isn't aware of. The health care system is more capable than ever before. But, lifestyles that are poor to long term health are taking the trend in the opposite direction.

But at the same time, we are learning more about different pathways.

I think Ozempic and other similar drugs that target the hunger/metabolic pathways will be game changers. While they are expensive and inconvenient now, looking at a horizon of decades, you could easily see them becoming widely adopted.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#50

Post by artificial »

terran57 wrote: post #45
mfer wrote: post #34

This is not likely. Life expectancy is going down while chronic disease is going up. Most of it has to do with lifestyle in ways the average person isn't aware of. The health care system is more capable than ever before. But, lifestyles that are poor to long term health are taking the trend in the opposite direction.

Exactly, people aren't taking care of themselves so that they don't get the chronic diseases that reduce their lifespans. The majority don't realize that what they do in their middle-age years has a profound impact on their life expectancy.

Pay a little for your health now or pay a lot later.
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