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Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

wsj.com

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Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#821

Post by lsh123 »

andrecarini wrote: post #616
lsh123 wrote: post #607

There are two theories: - the covid19 was created naturally and just happen to happen near the only place on Earth (or one out of two or three places?) that study covid19-style viruses; - the covid19 was created in the lab and leaked outside because of negligence and/ or sloppy procedures. Your choice which theory you believe. But a lot of powers in this world have vested interests to make you believe in “nothing to…

AFAIK part of the reason the lab is there and studies this type of virus is because it's naturally found in the region. correlation != causation

Except that coronaviruses are wide spreader on all continents. But even if we look at the closest known relatives of covid19, we are literally looking at half of Asia (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02596-2).

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#822

Post by wonderwonder »

jboy55 wrote: post #720
wonderwonder wrote: post #693

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"People want a blunt weapon to promote their politics with." You are right and thats the most fascinating / absurd part of this whole thing. Somehow wet market vs lab leak has political sides and people are emotionally invested in one over the other. Its crazy, lets just have the truth and move on, either way it came out of China and savaged the world. People don't want the lab leak theory to be true for the sole rea…

Do you need the truth though? In some ways the mere question on the origin of the virus is a political one. No one in the public has ever cared to have definitive proof where any virus came from before. The ability to point to a specific time and place is probably outside of our ability. A lab had it on Nov 1st, 2021. A lab worker brought it home, is that 100% proof that was the first infection? Or did the lab get it…

I don't need it, not much in life anyone really needs besides food, air and shelter. This applies to the majority of information on earth. Doesn't stop me wanting to learn about things. Not much I would do with it either, it would just let me know what happened and what caused my kids to spend a year plus in isolation. I'm just a single guy, consequences are a little above my paygrade. Do we need to cause of the Ohio train crash? 9/11?

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#824

Post by imiric »

onetimeusename wrote: post #786

I personally am willing to wait and hear out alternatives. I think the "smoking gun" evidence is long destroyed if it ever existed. But maybe the truth is out there. On the other hand, it seems like there are people who not only insist the Lab Leak Theory could be wrong, they don't WANT it to be right. Why is that? Why are they so concerned the theory might be true and what is the implication?

> Why is that? Why are they so concerned the theory might be true and what is the implication?

That's a very naive question.

Most governments don't like to admit they made a mistake or were wrong. The Chinese government especially, since saving face and avoiding embarrassment is crucial in Chinese culture. All their energy is spent in making sure this never happens domestically or abroad, and they will do anything in their power to suppress any information that would imply otherwise. Having a totalitarian government is convenient in that sense.

On the other hand, a lab leak would also hurt US' reputation, given the NIH funded gain-of-function research in Wuhan, and could be directly involved in the incident.

So, at the end of the day, it's all about optics and politics. There are many political and economic reasons for those involved to deny the allegations.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#825

Post by cookiengineer »

mherdeg wrote: post #395
cookiengineer wrote: post #231

No idea if it's possible to still find the source, but the doctor of patient zero also got infected (and died/"disappeared" afterwards like her boss at the wuhan hospital). Patient zero was a virologist that seems to have been censored off the Chinese internet afterwards, and I can't find the links anymore :-/ In the beginning of sars-cov-2 breakout there was an article shared on wechat that later got censored in var…

Hmmm -- do you mean Li Wenliang?

No, Li was a former study colleague of the boss of the Wuhan hospital and the leader of the research lab, and received the information about it in the afternoon the same day.

He got popular with the video that he recorded, but it did not contain the photo of the medical report of patient zero.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#826

Post by jacknews »

puffoflogic wrote: post #30
joenot443 wrote: post #8

[flagged]

> anti-science tribalism I don't know what you mean by this. The Science said it wasn't a lab-leak, and we trust The Science, so it couldn't have been anti-science.

The scientists said it wasn't a lab leak. The science, from the very start, could have been interpreted either way.

In fact the only real evidence, and all of it tenuous and circumstantial, is in support of a lab leak. There is actually not a single piece of direct evidence AFAIK for zoonotic origin, except that that route is possible (ie no mutations that would be impossible naturally, etc) and the overwhelmingly usual route for novel pathogens.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#827

Post by yellowapple »

bradleyjg wrote: post #576
axxto wrote: post #530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A "sightly-less-shitty-than-other-theories" theory is still a shitty theory. Low-confidence means exactly what it sounds like.

Where’s your comment from two years ago belittling the wet market theory as shitty? This whole saga is a damning indictment of: science journalism, government agencies’ public engagement, scientists’ public engagement, and the critical reasoning skills of middlebrow audiences.

Were any of these "theories" (they're hypotheses, at best) ever mutually exclusive? It seems entirely possible - and maybe even probable - that SARS-CoV-2:

- Originally evolved in the wild to at least some extent

- Was being studied in a lab and escaped

- Found its way into a wet market near said lab

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#828

Post by yellowapple »

tootie wrote: post #737
WaxProlix wrote: post #659

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw a lot of folks saying that the theories all kinda stank at the time, and to wait and see. Interestingly, a lot of folks also kept quiet and didn't champion any theories. Maybe I can link you to a lack of comment two years ago to back up my bona fides?

It seems that lo these many years later all the theories are still full of holes. Lab leak is plausible but there's no public evidence to back it. Somehow the DOE thinks they have something but we haven't seen it. Just based on history, zoonotic remains most likely but no host has been found.

It's also weird to me that the Department of Energy (and not, say, the CDC/DHHS or USAMRIID or what have you) is advancing such hypotheses in the first place. What does the origin of SARS-CoV-2 have to do with American energy policy?

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#830

Post by Tokkemon »

walkhour wrote: post #626
ss108 wrote: post #451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because we had a racist president who said stuff like "China virus" in a stupid and demeaning way--i.e. what may have been a valid and reasonable argument or position had its credibility ruined by being taken up by Trump and his ilk for their own ends.

Naming something by its origin it's not racist. The tone you're talking about is a completely subjective statement, and it has no place in a serious discussion. Using that name should've never been controversial and making it controversial was creating drama where there was none. The fact that people are still hurt about Trump saying that years ago shows how unprepared we are to have a discussion about anything.

He also used "Kung Flu." Come on, anyone with a brainstem could see he was promoting anti-Asian sentiment and did nothing to denounce anti-Asian hate crimes at home.
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