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Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

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Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#791
Can someone please explain, why the department of energy is dealing in genetic research?

I thought they are mainly dealing in nuclear energy and nuclear weapons. What is the overlap between things nuclear and genetic research? The USA doesn't have a biological weapons program since 1972, says wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_biological_weapo...

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#792

Putting aside all the speculation here: What is the biggest possible gain we can get from gain-of-function research? Does it outweigh the possible downside of a gain-of-function experiment escaping a lab? I’m seriously interested in seeing a defense of this kind of research.

It has given a head-start on understanding the way certain viruses spread and change, and provided a basis for developing treatments and vaccines. If Sars-COV-2 really spread because of a lab leak, the irony of ironies is that treatments and vaccines could be developed so fast precisely because this type of virus had been studied.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#793
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Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

We've banned this account for breaking the site guidelines and ignoring our request to stop. You can't abuse HN like this, regardless of how stupid someone else's theory is or you feel it is. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

[dead]

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#794

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> least shitty theory I read about CIA false flags in Cuba. Nordstream didn't blow itself up because the pipe was angry it allowed .de and .ru to engage in commerce. I guess a rogue western intelligence group bribed or compelled a Chinese lab worker to sabotage something. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/rfk-ope... "The CIA had been plotting to assassinate Castro since the summer of 1960, even bef…

I really doubt this. The pandemic was bad for the whole world, not just China. I'm sure it was an accident.

I don't think it would have been unreasonable for a nation-state to imagine, pre-pandemic, that China would be better equipped to handle such a thing with their lack of individual rights and that it might provide a competitive advantage.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#795
post #735

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not entirely clear on why the Energy Department would even be investigating this let alone issuing a controversial finding with low confidence at all. They mention specific intelligence that flipped their conclusion but didn't even characterize what the nature of that intelligence is.

“The DOE oversees several U.S. national labs, some of which conduct advanced biological research”

and funds a good deal of biological research in academia

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#797
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Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems that lo these many years later all the theories are still full of holes. Lab leak is plausible but there's no public evidence to back it. Somehow the DOE thinks they have something but we haven't seen it. Just based on history, zoonotic remains most likely but no host has been found.

There’s evidence that it’s more likely than various other theories, but there isn’t a smoking gun. That’s the kind of nuance that’s easy to ignore in favor of your preconceived notions because weak evidence is rarely worth changing your mind over. At a practical level I don’t think there’s much difference between the lab link being a 7% chance vs a 70% chance. What’s more concerning is the potential of future leaks a…

"There’s evidence that it’s more likely than various other theories,"

None that I've seen.

And the possibility of a future leak is probably unrelated to the possibility of this one having been a leak.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#800

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it wasn't so transmissible, it wouldn't have been a pandemic.

The question was not "why was it a pandemic", yhe question is, why was it so transmissible when earlier outbreaks, like SARS, had relatively much poorer transmission? That's the typical profile of new viruses.

Spontaneous mutations mean that a virus can become more infectious by bad luck alone. We were unlucky.
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