Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

711–720 of 1001 posts

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#711

Post by chiefalchemist »

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #151

There's a lot of bad headline-writing on this subject today. Here's the NYT's headline: Lab Leak Most Likely Caused Pandemic, Energy Dept. Says And then the sub-head (or dek, if you want to sound like you're in the know): The conclusion, which was made with “low confidence,” came as America’s intelligence agencies remained divided over the origins of the coronavirus. So we have a conclusion: 'lab leak most likely cau…

Perhaps. But you buried the lede.

It wasn't that long ago that just asking the question - or questioning the then narrative - was positioned as a threat to the democracy, racist (i.e., anti China), conspiracy theory, etc.

Low confidence based on available data is 100x better than high confidence based on nothing but some backroom creative thinking, and a mindless media entourage willing to parrot anything tossed in front of them.

It felt like 1984 then; this only magnifies that. And yet, still not an ounce of accountability. That's the lede.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#712

Post by Thiez »

alchemist1e9 wrote: post #448
tomp wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only bad viruses. Good viruses will be genetically coded to only harm a particular subgroup.

I was thinking that actually gives the United States a distinct advantage in such (hypothetical) biological warfare, it has the most diverse gene pool on the planet.

That seems unlikely, I would expect most African countries to beat the US easily.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#713

Post by [deleted] »

dqpb wrote: post #375
aaronbrethorst wrote: post #151

There's a lot of bad headline-writing on this subject today. Here's the NYT's headline: Lab Leak Most Likely Caused Pandemic, Energy Dept. Says And then the sub-head (or dek, if you want to sound like you're in the know): The conclusion, which was made with “low confidence,” came as America’s intelligence agencies remained divided over the origins of the coronavirus. So we have a conclusion: 'lab leak most likely cau…

Sure, but the real news is it used to be taboo to say this - Sinophobic even. A lot of people are owed a serious apology.

[deleted]

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#714

Post by baryphonic »

bradleyjg wrote: post #576
axxto wrote: post #530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A "sightly-less-shitty-than-other-theories" theory is still a shitty theory. Low-confidence means exactly what it sounds like.

Where’s your comment from two years ago belittling the wet market theory as shitty? This whole saga is a damning indictment of: science journalism, government agencies’ public engagement, scientists’ public engagement, and the critical reasoning skills of middlebrow audiences.

I know you're making a rhetorical point, but I found a thread I remembered from May 2020 where I both said that the wet market theory was shit[1] and that the Wuhan Institute of Virology/Wuhan CDC needed to be investigated without widespread censorship.[0] At the time, it was not exactly well-received. Someone accused me of throwing out so many lies that reasonable people couldn't even rebut it.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23038503

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23041871

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#715

Post by treeman79 »

wkat4242 wrote: post #672
landemva wrote: post #619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> least shitty theory I read about CIA false flags in Cuba. Nordstream didn't blow itself up because the pipe was angry it allowed .de and .ru to engage in commerce. I guess a rogue western intelligence group bribed or compelled a Chinese lab worker to sabotage something. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/rfk-ope... "The CIA had been plotting to assassinate Castro since the summer of 1960, even bef…

I really doubt this. The pandemic was bad for the whole world, not just China. I'm sure it was an accident.

They were making deadly viruses in a lab. It’s like handing out loaded shotguns to school children then claiming anything that happens is an accident.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#716

Post by starkparker »

mort96 wrote: post #457
barbazoo wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do we know why it is the Department of Energy that works on that? I would have expected a branch of government that's more related to health, granted, I know very little about US gvmt structure.

I don't know the answer to your question, but the DoE does a lot more than just energy. In addition to overseeing energy policy, they oversee the R&D of nuclear weapons and the nuclear weapons program, they oversee the National Laboratories which does a lot of research and development in the areas of technology, health, physics, climate/environment and energy, they started the Human Genome Project, etc. Here's their…

There's a reason why DoE's used as the "villain" agency in Stranger Things, enough so that DoE commented[1] on it.

1: https://www.energy.gov/articles/what-stranger-things-didnt-g...

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#717

Post by lovemenot »

jcranmer wrote: post #704
hotpotamus wrote: post #695

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What was the origin of Bubonic Plague, of AIDS, of Polio? Do we know in sufficient detail? I remember many saying that the exact origin of SARS-CoV-2 may never be known. Say it did escape from a Chinese lab - is that all you need to know? Or would you want to know how it came to be in the lab in the first place?

AIDS is caused by HIV, which is believed to have evolved from a virus infecting primates in Africa (probably more specific details than that exist, but I don't know them offhand). Bubonic plague and polio both predate the existence of writing, and may well predate even agriculture.

HIV has at least one similarly plausible but unprovable origin story - concerning the unintended consequences of polio vaccination in the 1950s.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7935079/

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#719

Post by hsbauauvhabzb »

wkat4242 wrote: post #670
dangwhy wrote: post #544

Earlier quoted context omitted.

then why even propose any theory ? why not let it remain a mystery.

That's what China wants yes. But while this helps the CCP party save face, it doesn't help to move on with the investigation. It's not even about the blame. We investigate air crashes in such detail so we can prevent them from happening again. Of course with an even bigger event like this we should do the same. The pandemic has happened and no kind of blame or money can revert it. But we can try to learn everything a…

On that basis does the actual cause even matter as opposed to mapping out likely vs unlikely caused?

I’m sure air crash investigations would resolve many safety issues completely unrelated to the actual cause of a crash.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#720

Post by jboy55 »

wonderwonder wrote: post #693
kristopolous wrote: post #682

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People want a blunt weapon to promote their politics with. All of the theories had the properties of being convenient darlings of some pre-existing political faction. The most responsible thing is to claim ignorance on the origin story unless you have genuine, credentialed, expertise and analytical training for it and even then, those people choose their audiences and presentation carefully because of the unintended…

"People want a blunt weapon to promote their politics with." You are right and thats the most fascinating / absurd part of this whole thing. Somehow wet market vs lab leak has political sides and people are emotionally invested in one over the other. Its crazy, lets just have the truth and move on, either way it came out of China and savaged the world. People don't want the lab leak theory to be true for the sole rea…

Do you need the truth though? In some ways the mere question on the origin of the virus is a political one. No one in the public has ever cared to have definitive proof where any virus came from before. The ability to point to a specific time and place is probably outside of our ability. A lab had it on Nov 1st, 2021. A lab worker brought it home, is that 100% proof that was the first infection? Or did the lab get it from a place where it was already infecting people?

Finally, what do we do with the info? Is it just a, 'oh well, that's interesting'?

Post reply on HN