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Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

wsj.com

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Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#671

Post by brigandish »

kilgnad wrote: post #547
pessimizer wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The headline is absolutely, literally true. I also don't understand the nuance that anyone could miss here. The astounding thing is that the Energy Dept. can say that a lab leak is the most likely cause of the pandemic, and people jump out in front of them to say that what they somehow still mean is that a lab leak wasn't the cause of the pandemic. They have "low confidence" that it was a lab leak ( there might not e…

No. Low confidence means they have a bunch of crap theories. The lab leak theory is simply the least crappy theory. That's the nuance.

They're not even crappy theories, they just don't have enough evidence to improve confidence or be solved. A crappy theory would be that an alien dropped it as part of an attack on Earth.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#672

Post by wkat4242 »

landemva wrote: post #619
lucideer wrote: post #589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The headline is absolutely, literally true It absolutely, literally isn't. The headline says the lab leak is the most likely origin. The lab theory being the least shitty theory absolutely doesn't make it a likely origin: it is purely a statement about the information we have (rather lack thereof) on origins, not on the likelihood of any of those. Likelihood of origin doesn't even come into it given the current sta…

> least shitty theory I read about CIA false flags in Cuba. Nordstream didn't blow itself up because the pipe was angry it allowed .de and .ru to engage in commerce. I guess a rogue western intelligence group bribed or compelled a Chinese lab worker to sabotage something. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/rfk-ope... "The CIA had been plotting to assassinate Castro since the summer of 1960, even bef…

I really doubt this. The pandemic was bad for the whole world, not just China. I'm sure it was an accident.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#673

Post by jopsen »

goolulusaurs wrote: post #192

IMO, it seems obvious from the behavior of China's government that they know it is a lab leak. If it wasn't a lab leak, then presumably there is an animal reservoir of the virus somewhere in China, but as far as I know they haven't claimed to have found it. But if there is an animal reservoir of the virus in China, then how could the Chinese government ever expect a lockdown to work? A lockdown on travel would only r…

> it seems obvious from the behavior of China's government that they know it is a lab leak.

I don't think anyone in China knows what happened.

It seems entirely likely that it was covered up at multiple levels until it couldn't be. And that each level won't know about the other cover ups.

I think it's entirely possible that the system in China doesn't have the capacity to know.

Similarly, they probably covered up the death toll by not counting. So it's entirely likely that the Chinese government doesn't know the true number.

> Yet the Chinese government claimed that their lockdowns did work.

Why would the be a correlation between what the "Chinese government says" and reality.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#674

Post by khazhoux »

yibg wrote: post #604
khazhoux wrote: post #234

Time once again to post Jon Stewart: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSfejgwbDQ8 I still don't understand how in 2020 people were branded as racist sinophobes for saying that the coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, probably originated from the coronavirus research lab in Wuhan . I know suspicion isn't fact, but that should have always been the leading theory to be disproved. Instead, IIRC Twitter and FB were flaggi…

Absent of other information, why is this the most probably explanation? It’s possible sure, but the best we could’ve said, especially back then is we don’t know. Viruses from animals jump to humans all the time, and have caused other outbreaks before many times, why is this one special?

> why is this one special?

There was very clearly something exceptional about it, since we shut down much of the world for a year.

> Absent of other information, why is this the most probably explanation?

Again, the simple fact that the most severe viral outbreak in decades originated near a research facility for that same kind of virus, was reason enough to push lab-leak to the top of valid theories.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#675

Post by peyton »

philippejara wrote: post #583
selcuka wrote: post #566

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> then why even propose any theory ? why not let it remain a mystery. Reductio ad absurdum won't work here. There are ways to test a "low confidence" theory, and re-evaluate its confidence level. This is called science.

You aren't going to get any confirmation or material evidence until the chinese government allows it to happen, and with their initial reaction to the situation before the rest of the world kenw what was happening and their reaction to the WHO inquiries, odds are we'll never get anything aside from "low confidence". Science isn't a magic wand, its a process, and honestly assuming we do get access an investigation lik…

You can’t call spoliation “low confidence.”

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#676

Post by kilgnad »

Godel_unicode wrote: post #642
kilgnad wrote: post #606

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This entirely depends on the total amount of theories. It also assumes the known theories cover all possible origins. Saying COVID evolved from nature is sort of a catch all. It's like saying all possible theories in aggregate except for the lab leak theory. For example: What are the chances of anyone but you winning the lottery? Quite high. So when they say low confidence of the lab leak theory it most likely means…

Our ability to prove a theory or not is entirely dependent on our ability to gather evidence for or against. How many other theories can be thought of is totally irrelevant. Low confidence means inability to prove or disprove. That is it. Edit: extrapolating further about this is just a Rorschach test.

This is just vocabulary. If you can't find evidence to support a theory confidently... I call it a crap theory.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#677

Post by diebeforei485 »

ss108 wrote: post #451
khazhoux wrote: post #234

Time once again to post Jon Stewart: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSfejgwbDQ8 I still don't understand how in 2020 people were branded as racist sinophobes for saying that the coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, probably originated from the coronavirus research lab in Wuhan . I know suspicion isn't fact, but that should have always been the leading theory to be disproved. Instead, IIRC Twitter and FB were flaggi…

Because we had a racist president who said stuff like "China virus" in a stupid and demeaning way--i.e. what may have been a valid and reasonable argument or position had its credibility ruined by being taken up by Trump and his ilk for their own ends.

> had its credibility ruined

Avoid the passive voice.

News companies and social media content moderators, who dislike Trump and overwhelmingly donated to his opponent, decided that the lab leak was not credible.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#678

Post by plutonorm »

brookst wrote: post #445
smsm42 wrote: post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not like any other options have high confidence. All theories are low confidence right now because there is no conclusive proof for either. But if you support some, you are the defender of science, and if you support another, you are a filthy conspirologist and get banned from social media. Try explaining that to 95% of the American populace.

I think it has more to do with the fact that one opinion is supported by more conspiracy nuts. Doesn’t mean it isn’t the right answer, but having lots of crazies insisting it is the only possible answer makes more grounded people less credible in the eyes of others.

You have been taught to associate the lab leak theory with low status conspiracy theorists. Your emotional mind has then sought to achieve higher status by siding with the non crazy people. As someone that is not easily swayed it is absolutely stunning to see how social dynamics sway people's opinions. As a younger person I just did understand how the opinions of the people I interacted with were driven by pure emotion, as this is something I fought with before I reached adolescence. I assumed everyone else had. Even those who claim to be 'scientific' are not in pursuit of truth, but social status. This whole thread is just one giant cope by the people who have sided with authority in search of status. They see that the gain in status they achieved through their allegiance being threatened and attack the facts by obfuscating them. DOE thinks it's the most likely scenario, they're not confident, but it's the best they can come up with. The FBI has done the same. That means intelligent rational people in receipt of all the facts have come to a conclusion you cast out and ridiculed in your dopaminergic dash for upvotes. Be better.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#679

Post by philliphaydon »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #588
jimbob45 wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a thought experiment, who would have access to the most information in the world outside of the sitting POTUS? The richest man in the world? Surely Trump of all people would be the most qualified to make such a claim.

Trump was... not an ordinary president. In particular, he didn't pay very much attention to his briefings. He may have had access to the information, but there's less indication that he used that access, and plenty of indication that he frequently shot his mouth of contrary to the facts. Whether he did so in this case is not proven, but the parent's argument doesn't work for the particular president in question.

I don't think Trump is patient enough to sit and read. It's more likely he wanted people to tell him what's important that he needs to know about.

I'm speculating of course but if you think about it, can you imagine him sitting patiently reading documents first thing in the morning? He would get bored so quickly he would end up on twitter to complain or gloat.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#680

Post by rjzzleep »

WaxProlix wrote: post #659
bradleyjg wrote: post #576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where’s your comment from two years ago belittling the wet market theory as shitty? This whole saga is a damning indictment of: science journalism, government agencies’ public engagement, scientists’ public engagement, and the critical reasoning skills of middlebrow audiences.

I saw a lot of folks saying that the theories all kinda stank at the time, and to wait and see. Interestingly, a lot of folks also kept quiet and didn't champion any theories. Maybe I can link you to a lack of comment two years ago to back up my bona fides?

Normally when you try to solve a serious problem in a small company you might want to know who caused the problem, but most of the times you just need to know it wasn't intentional and you focus on addressing the outcome and making sure it never happens again.

In big enterprises usually solving the problem is secondary to finding who the culprit is so that all future problems can be blamed on that department.

China and the US are both like big enterprises. None of them is actually focused on making sure all the problems that happened will not happen again. People are just focused on blaming their domestic shit on the other.

China releases a strategy paper on US hegemony, US brings the lab leak theory back into the spotlight. It doesn't really matter if there was valid research on that theory. The fact that the major newspapers come out with it 1 day after China releases their stuff, shows you it's political.

It may be right, it may be wrong, an unintended leak has always been a very likely on the list for me. It's not like lack of security in labs hasn't been an issue in the US, in China and in a bunch of labs in Europe for that matter. Probably other countries are way worse.

The point isn't whether it's right or wrong, the point is that the goal isn't to solve the problem, but exclusively to assert blame.

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