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Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

wsj.com

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Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#381

Post by aaronbrethorst »

dqpb wrote: post #375
aaronbrethorst wrote: post #151

There's a lot of bad headline-writing on this subject today. Here's the NYT's headline: Lab Leak Most Likely Caused Pandemic, Energy Dept. Says And then the sub-head (or dek, if you want to sound like you're in the know): The conclusion, which was made with “low confidence,” came as America’s intelligence agencies remained divided over the origins of the coronavirus. So we have a conclusion: 'lab leak most likely cau…

Sure, but the real news is it used to be taboo to say this - Sinophobic even. A lot of people are owed a serious apology.

Context, as always, is key: https://www.npr.org/2021/08/12/1027236499/anti-asian-hate-cr...

Are these people who are owed a serious apology the ones who actually attacked Asian-Americans? Or simply the ones who stoked racial animus prompting others to attack them?

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#382

Post by smsm42 »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #356
smsm42 wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The obvious solution for this conundrum is that they did study it, but didn't publish it because the screw-up happened and all evidence was promptly destroyed. In a totalitarian state, the secrecy is the default mode. You can get exceptions and publish stuff, sure, but only once you asked and received permission. If you didn't - or in the period between you asking and permission being issued something happened - no e…

Perfect, then it's unfalsifiable.

Unfortunately, unless whoever destroyed evidence screwed up (happens all the time, security services have enough idiots and slackers), or somebody kept some evidence and then will defect, yes, it is likely we'll never have the proof. That's why they do it.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#383

Post by Consultant32452 »

ffssffss wrote: post #168
alchemist1e9 wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also article mentions FBI has “moderate” confidence it was lab leak. I find that very interesting given it wouldn’t be so much based on scientific analysis but some intelligence collection the FBI has.

And the WSJ piece says the CIA is undecided! I wonder what explains the different assessments.

Organizations like the CIA don't make factual statements, they make strategic statements. Any connection with reality is purely coincidental.

If the CIA came out tomorrow and said they were 100% confident it was a lab leak from China we would have no way of knowing if that's based on facts or political propaganda.

Maybe, in 40-50 years we'll get an answer. Until then, it's too politically and strategically useful to keep it up in the air. At least one goal is for people to be arguing about it.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#384

Post by stubybubs »

ThePhantom wrote: post #205

The lab leak hypothesis makes the most sense. The lab in Wuhan which researches coronaviruses conducts experiences on animals, including bats. Like other labs, there are dedicated personnel for hydrating and feeding the experimental animals. Notably, there are "wet markets" in Wuhan where live animals are sold, including bats, which harbor coronaviruses. Someone who is working in the facility in charge of maintenance…

I don't know if it does make the most sense. Some context:

https://www.cdc.gov/onehealth/basics/zoonotic-diseases.html

75% of all new infectious diseases come from animals. How many of those do we have start to finish routes from animals to humans? And if we don't have that route, how many of those are we suspecting of being lab leaks?

If they wrote in their conclusion that it was "low confidence" I think they have good reason for saying that.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#385

Post by Glyptodon »

mwbajor wrote: post #369
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good luck getting 95% of the American populace to understand any of that nuance. After seeing lots of Twitter threads about Nate Silver, condemning his lack of "certainty" in his predictions ("It's such a cop out! Since he never says yes or no one way or the other he always has an out when he's wrong!"), I'm even more convinced not just that people don't understand statistics, but they willfully don't want to.

Doesn't matter if they understand the nuance. The lab leak theory takes a back seat for the following reason: Lets say it is found out with definite proof that it was a lab leak. Then what? Grandma's dead, china killed her and there is nothing you can do. We are not going to let this ruin trade relations even more ($$$ LOL) so you're just going to have to forget about it. Every American touched by covid knows this in…

A lot of people seem to think the lab leak premise is the same as the "engineered biological weapon" premise so if that become popular it'll probably only drive a perception of "weak government that betrays the citizens" even more than we've already got...

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#387

Post by dilap »

nostromo wrote: post #260

The timing of this is interesting, given that China is now considering giving weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine. It seemed that from 2020 until recently, the intelligence community was trying to lower tensions with China. That's shifted now with China's increasing support Russia's war in Ukraine and China's increasing pressure in Taiwan. It's now in the US's interests to try and isolate China geopolitically. So, w…

How would the US fare if China cut off exports? Seems like it would at best be extremely disruptive. So how much leverage does US really have to "isolate" China?

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#388

Post by drusepth »

As an off-topic side note, I saw this trending on Twitter and just assumed it was the latest conspiracy on the site. Seeing it on HN lends it a lot more credibility.

I used to watch Twitter for a source of breaking news. It's a shame that it seems like 90% of trending stories there need verified with a second source now, and that the nuance you get from doing so (for example, the "low confidence" expressed by the US) seem to still be entirely missing from Twitter's trending discourse.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#389

Post by chitowneats »

conception wrote: post #386
chitowneats wrote: post #377

[flagged]

The world has always been joyfully ok with a country killing its own people.

Muslims in Xinjiang are not Han Chinese. You're buying into the propaganda. In any case, the world should not be okay with this.
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