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Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

wsj.com

201–210 of 1001 posts

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#201
post #26

Not unplausible at all. Has happened before https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity...

And this is precisely why BSL4 labs exist. And accidents also happen at BSL4 labs. But in the west, at least we have reasonably transparent and trustworthy governments, with some notion of accountability for enforcing rules.

Forget the government. Do we have transparent and trustworthy lab staff?

After working in a BSL3 lab, I've seen some fairly poor working practices including someone infecting themselves, presumably due to sloppy working practices. There is a reason why lab leaks are common, if not vastly less consequential than the lab leak under discussion. It's because people are people, and they make mistakes, whether that's accidental or deliberately breaking the rules. It does make one question whether we can work on dangerous pathogens safely. I'd have to say, after direct experience of work on multiple diseases of varying types, that for many of them I have serious doubts. When it comes to Gain of Function, I think it should be banned worldwide. We aren't capable of working to the required level of stringency to guarantee safety.

To provide a concrete example, look at the German researcher who infected herself with Ebola. In a BSL4 facility. Not even involving GoF research, just the regular virus. Even top researchers slip up. This one made the news due to the severity, but how many are quietly buried, or not even reported within the organisation at all for fear of the consequences. It happens, and I've seen it first-hand.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#202

There's a lot of bad headline-writing on this subject today. Here's the NYT's headline: Lab Leak Most Likely Caused Pandemic, Energy Dept. Says And then the sub-head (or dek, if you want to sound like you're in the know): The conclusion, which was made with “low confidence,” came as America’s intelligence agencies remained divided over the origins of the coronavirus. So we have a conclusion: 'lab leak most likely cau…

> In 2015, an international team including two scientists from the institute published successful research on whether a bat coronavirus could be made to infect a human cell line (HeLa). The team engineered a hybrid virus, combining a bat coronavirus with a SARS virus that had been adapted to grow in mice and mimic human disease. The hybrid virus was able to infect human cells.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology#SA...

Do we have the genetic sequences from these experiments? Has anyone compared them to the sequences from the pandemic?

I'm not entirely up to speed but I recall hearing something about the US government funding them (without its own knowledge..?), so perhaps that info is not only in China's hands.

(And while we're on the subject, did anything come of the thing about Pfizer engineering the virus, ostensibly for vaccine research purposes?)

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#203

There's a lot of bad headline-writing on this subject today. Here's the NYT's headline: Lab Leak Most Likely Caused Pandemic, Energy Dept. Says And then the sub-head (or dek, if you want to sound like you're in the know): The conclusion, which was made with “low confidence,” came as America’s intelligence agencies remained divided over the origins of the coronavirus. So we have a conclusion: 'lab leak most likely cau…

[flagged]

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#204
post #61
post #52

As a non-American, the whole thing seems crazy to me. It seems like Trump said it from the start, and the media negated him based on political views, not facts. And now, only years later, there is a reconciliation with the facts. Now, I'm not that aware of the politics or the media in the US. But I think the way I see it may be the way many others saw this story roll. Whether or not it's true - it is a big reason tha…

> the media negated him based on political views No, the media negated it because all the notable scientists and publications (Nature, Lancet, ..) said it was a crazy conspiracy theory.

The fact that these science journals needlessly weighed in on something not falsifiable says more about the journals than anything.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#205
The lab leak hypothesis makes the most sense. The lab in Wuhan which researches coronaviruses conducts experiences on animals, including bats. Like other labs, there are dedicated personnel for hydrating and feeding the experimental animals. Notably, there are "wet markets" in Wuhan where live animals are sold, including bats, which harbor coronaviruses. Someone who is working in the facility in charge of maintenance of experimental animals has a choice of either sacrificing the animals as per protocol, or selling them to a wet market to make extra money. The most likely scenario was that someone sold the animal, most likely a bat, to a wet market, which happened to contain a virulent coronavirus strain that then infected humans.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#206
post #165

There's a lot of bad headline-writing on this subject today. Here's the NYT's headline: Lab Leak Most Likely Caused Pandemic, Energy Dept. Says And then the sub-head (or dek, if you want to sound like you're in the know): The conclusion, which was made with “low confidence,” came as America’s intelligence agencies remained divided over the origins of the coronavirus. So we have a conclusion: 'lab leak most likely cau…

What is the substantive difference between "Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says" and "Lab Leak Most Likely Caused Pandemic, Energy Dept. Says"? The only difference I see is that one notes the pandemic ("Covid-19") while the other notes the agency ("Energy Dept."). Or is your comment more broadly that both headlines are bad? If so, then I'd disagree. Both headlines give the most impo…

> Both headlines give the most important part of the story: a US agency currently believes that the pandemic was caused by a lab leak.

seems to me you're still leaving out a very important part of the news, which is that the confidence level is "low".

so right now the US government has multiple theories, none of which it is confident. it's just that of the reports that is not confident in, it might be the least not confident in the lab leak idea.

but the WSJ has decided to throw integrity aside and ignore that part in their headline.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the WSJ piece says the CIA is undecided! I wonder what explains the different assessments.

Probably they still aren’t sharing all the information they have with each other. I had thought that was supposed to be much improved post 9-11.

Or there aren't objective standards for what "low, medium, and high confidence" actually mean, thereby allowing one agency to look at the evidence and say it's of low confidence and another to look at the same data and say it's moderate confidence.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#208
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do you people get briefed? The guy was fucking President

I love this reaction, because Trump, of all people, was getting some of the least useful briefings of any modern US president, due to his inability to pay attention.[0][1][2] So it's entirely possible that just watching the news casually would leave you better informed than the US president during the years of 2017 to 2021. [0] https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/29/politics/trump-intelligence-b... [1] https://www.theguardia…

Or someone at the briefings said there was a possibility that the origin of the virus was a lab leak and that was the only thing he actually heard and just said that the origin of the virus was a lab leak.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also article mentions FBI has “moderate” confidence it was lab leak. I find that very interesting given it wouldn’t be so much based on scientific analysis but some intelligence collection the FBI has.

And the WSJ piece says the CIA is undecided! I wonder what explains the different assessments.

I'm sure that the undecidedness is not about the origin but about the geopolitical impact such an official statement would have.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#210
post #202

There's a lot of bad headline-writing on this subject today. Here's the NYT's headline: Lab Leak Most Likely Caused Pandemic, Energy Dept. Says And then the sub-head (or dek, if you want to sound like you're in the know): The conclusion, which was made with “low confidence,” came as America’s intelligence agencies remained divided over the origins of the coronavirus. So we have a conclusion: 'lab leak most likely cau…

> In 2015, an international team including two scientists from the institute published successful research on whether a bat coronavirus could be made to infect a human cell line (HeLa). The team engineered a hybrid virus, combining a bat coronavirus with a SARS virus that had been adapted to grow in mice and mimic human disease. The hybrid virus was able to infect human cells. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Inst…

Yes we have the sequences and no they’re nothing like SarsCov2
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