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Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

wsj.com

191–200 of 1001 posts

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#191

This was considered "fake news" and heavily reprimanded all throughout the pandemic in the media attached to the Western consensus, hilarious how they're starting to do a 180 on it (next is doing a 360, I guess).

It's always been a possibility although other explanations are more likely. I'd be interested in the evidence.

Why are other explanations more likely? I'd be interested in your evidence for that.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#192
IMO, it seems obvious from the behavior of China's government that they know it is a lab leak. If it wasn't a lab leak, then presumably there is an animal reservoir of the virus somewhere in China, but as far as I know they haven't claimed to have found it. But if there is an animal reservoir of the virus in China, then how could the Chinese government ever expect a lockdown to work? A lockdown on travel would only really prevent the virus spreading from people bringing it into the country but obviously wild animals would still be spreading it. Yet the Chinese government claimed that their lockdowns did work. How is that at all compatible with the virus being from wild animals and not being a lab leak? It doesn't make any sense.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When Trump made accusations of a lab leak, there were few facts pointing to that conclusion. Furthermore, the statements he made were dangerous to Asian Americans in the US. Later, as more facts came to light, the lab-leak theory became more plausible. Guessing right in the absence of evidence shouldn't grant a person any kind of vindication in retrospect

I’ll never understand this take. “The virus accidentally leaked from a highly sophisticated lab in China” is somehow racist and dangerous, but “Chinese people can’t stop eating weird stuff at a wet market and the virus jumped to humans from there” isn’t.

“People eating weird things” isn’t the only alternative theory to “lab leak!!!”

A farmer handling infected guano (which is used for fertilizer) could’ve been patient zero. A scientist studying bats in a cave could’ve been exposed, and I guess that could count as a lab leak, I guess, but it’s not as sexy as “mad scientists were manually recombinating viruses for the interest of authoritarian regimes!”

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#194
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

You're commenting on a report that the (US Government's) DoE is saying it was lab leaked , so... the US isn't actively supporting any cover up, or they're doing a profoundly terrible job.

not lab made, leaked from a lab

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#196

Without meaning to take a position either way, as a non-American, why does the Energy Department have a position on this? I’m aware that the Energy Department has sone degree of responsibility for the US nuclear arsenal, but even taking that into account, it seems out of scope.

Actually as a side question, why does the reporting on this story in particular use the somewhat unusual phrase “US Energy Department?” It is the Department of Energy, right?

I seems like a little nitpick, but there are lots of agencies in the US, sometimes there’s a little nobody agency with a name similar to a big deal one… as a style thing, reporters should stick to the common names for big agencies, so we can be sure they aren’t mixing things up.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#197
post #45

Without meaning to take a position either way, as a non-American, why does the Energy Department have a position on this? I’m aware that the Energy Department has sone degree of responsibility for the US nuclear arsenal, but even taking that into account, it seems out of scope.

Per the article, it looks like a supporting report came out of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, which is funded by the DoE. While LLNL is primarily known for nuclear research, biosecurity is also apparently part of its mission: https://www.llnl.gov/missions/biosecurity

They're also one of the few people with a massive "supercomputer cluster" to do simulations. (and part of the reason we have zfs on Linux now)

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#198
post #165

There's a lot of bad headline-writing on this subject today. Here's the NYT's headline: Lab Leak Most Likely Caused Pandemic, Energy Dept. Says And then the sub-head (or dek, if you want to sound like you're in the know): The conclusion, which was made with “low confidence,” came as America’s intelligence agencies remained divided over the origins of the coronavirus. So we have a conclusion: 'lab leak most likely cau…

What is the substantive difference between "Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says" and "Lab Leak Most Likely Caused Pandemic, Energy Dept. Says"? The only difference I see is that one notes the pandemic ("Covid-19") while the other notes the agency ("Energy Dept."). Or is your comment more broadly that both headlines are bad? If so, then I'd disagree. Both headlines give the most impo…

I'm not sure what the better headline would be. "Lab leak possible origin?" Well, yes, in that they haven't ruled it out. But that's not really the same thing as saying that something is "most likely" even if, as the subhead notes, they wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#199
post #106

How can they tell the difference between a lab leak and a deliberate release to explore the world's reaction to a viral weapon?

Because deliberately releasing a virus that is so infectious that it will cause a global pandemic and will inevitably hit your own country is a bloody stupid thing to do. Everyone loses, unless you already have a vaccine that you can sell.

And if you are trying to insinuate that it might have been the Chinese that released it, it becomes even more bloody stupid, because you would obviously never release it on your own soil right outside your own biolab which would immediately be under suspicion of being the source. You'd release it at NY Grand Central Station or the Atlanta International, and no one will be able to figure out what happened.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because what good does it do to actually dealing with the outbreak? I assume the government just made a decision that it was politically less desirable to do for a number of reasons. Mainly, probably the continuing attempts at thawing of relations with China.

If China is engaged in a behavior that lead to a global pandemic, we have to know everything about what they were doing so that we can stop this from ever happening again. Who gives a crap about thawed relations after the extraordinary amount of damage this pandemic has done to the world

The genie is more or less out of the bottle on that one. If it is a lab leak there is no stopping it from happening again and China is not doing anything special. There are hundreds of these labs all over the world, they have containment breaches all the time [1], and given the way of international politics it is effectively impossible to shut them all down. Probably undesirable as well given that labs like those are the reason we had the medical knowledge to create a vaccine.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecuri...

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