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Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

wsj.com

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Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#111

Post by lamontcg »

ttul wrote: post #11

The This Week In Virology podcast has been talking about the lab leak concept since the early days of the pandemic, with various experts opining on the likelihood. In [1], the expert discusses how the virus itself does not seem engineered; it’s most likely a naturally created virus. However, this is exactly the sort of virus that they study at the BSL4 lab in Wuhan, quite legitimately - and they produce good science…

> However, this is exactly the sort of virus that they study at the BSL4 lab in Wuhan

No it isn't. The were studying SARS-CoV-1 and WIV-1.

They sequenced RaTG13 but that is too far away from SARS-CoV-2 with a thousand random mutations across its genome. And there's no evidence that they ever recovered culturable virus from RaTG13 or were able to culture it--there's a vast gap between sequencing a virus and culturing it.

We also know about their SARS-CoV-1 and WIV-1 work because they published it. Before the pandemic they had no reason to keep work on RaTG13 secret.

This is a case of Schrodinger's BSL4 lab. We know they built chimeras of other viruses because they told the world about that, we know they sequenced RaTG13 because they published that sequence, but there's a SARS-CoV-2 progenitor backbone that they found, which for some reason they picked to be the backbone in a new set of experiments, which they had perfect secrecy over and nobody has ever found any evidence of it.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#112

Post by 2-718-281-828 »

ttul wrote: post #11

The This Week In Virology podcast has been talking about the lab leak concept since the early days of the pandemic, with various experts opining on the likelihood. In [1], the expert discusses how the virus itself does not seem engineered; it’s most likely a naturally created virus. However, this is exactly the sort of virus that they study at the BSL4 lab in Wuhan, quite legitimately - and they produce good science…

[flagged]

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#113

Post by 2-718-281-828 »

ironyman wrote: post #4

I strongly suspect that the three-letter agencies have good intel to conclusively show that this is the case, but they have decided to hold back on it for the sake of US-China relations. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-intelligence-releases-repor...

considering the Snowden leaks, the 3 letter agencies probably have enough intel to solve about 90% of every unsolved felony in the US and Europe.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#114

Post by corbulo »

Centigonal wrote: post #99
snird wrote: post #52

As a non-American, the whole thing seems crazy to me. It seems like Trump said it from the start, and the media negated him based on political views, not facts. And now, only years later, there is a reconciliation with the facts. Now, I'm not that aware of the politics or the media in the US. But I think the way I see it may be the way many others saw this story roll. Whether or not it's true - it is a big reason tha…

When Trump made accusations of a lab leak, there were few facts pointing to that conclusion. Furthermore, the statements he made were dangerous to Asian Americans in the US. Later, as more facts came to light, the lab-leak theory became more plausible. Guessing right in the absence of evidence shouldn't grant a person any kind of vindication in retrospect

Where do you people get briefed? The guy was fucking President

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#115

Post by cld8483 »

credit_guy wrote: post #41
boeingUH60 wrote: post #6

Nothing seems certain at this point, but, let’s say the pandemic was actually caused by a lab leak. That’ll mean the world was brought to an economic standstill and millions of people died because of the errors and carelessness of some people…will there be consequences? What will be the assurance that such deadly mistake won’t occur again? If it was actually a lab leak, then it’ll definitely rank as the most costly a…

The only reason to not say it was a lab leak is to avoid embarrassing those responsible, China first and America second. But little by little people will start accepting that. What should the consequences be? At the very least a tightening of the controls around labs doing bio research. Of course, this amounts to nothing if someone is allowed to outsource research to labs in countries that don't follow the stringent…

> What should the consequences be?

The abolition of modern virology, roll the clock back on them a hundred years. Allow the development of vaccines for extant viruses, but completely ban all Dr Frankenstein activities with viruses. No more "invent a virus in a lab to beat nature to the punch" horse shit, with is flagrant weapons development under the cover of civilian research. As soon as the virus started circulating through the population, did these researchers share their knowledge and help develop a vaccine? No, they buried their involvement and covered up everything they knew. They were no help at all, and never intended to be. Burn their books which describe how it is done, and silence the people who already understand it with the threat of criminal imprisonment for sharing their knowledge. Encourage major religions to amend their rules with strong taboos against this research, and institute harsh economic sanctions against any nation that doesn't participate in this ban.

Does this seem extreme? It shouldn't. This field of research has the power to kill billions and no demonstrable upside. It is even more dangerous than nuclear weapons; because at least a technician at a nuclear weapon production facility would be hard pressed to release his work on the global public of his own initiative. Smuggling a virus out of any lab is trivial, all it takes is a single madman's willingness to sacrifice himself as patient zero.

We're the villagers in an "evil wizard" scenario. The wizards have been meddling in dangerous forces beyond the understanding of common people, and it's getting people killed. The solution is to storm the wizard's tower and throw the wizards off the top of it.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#116

Post by r053bud »

2-718-281-828 wrote: post #112
ttul wrote: post #11

The This Week In Virology podcast has been talking about the lab leak concept since the early days of the pandemic, with various experts opining on the likelihood. In [1], the expert discusses how the virus itself does not seem engineered; it’s most likely a naturally created virus. However, this is exactly the sort of virus that they study at the BSL4 lab in Wuhan, quite legitimately - and they produce good science…

[flagged]

Because what good does it do to actually dealing with the outbreak? I assume the government just made a decision that it was politically less desirable to do for a number of reasons. Mainly, probably the continuing attempts at thawing of relations with China.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#117

Post by cld8483 »

2-718-281-828 wrote: post #112
ttul wrote: post #11

The This Week In Virology podcast has been talking about the lab leak concept since the early days of the pandemic, with various experts opining on the likelihood. In [1], the expert discusses how the virus itself does not seem engineered; it’s most likely a naturally created virus. However, this is exactly the sort of virus that they study at the BSL4 lab in Wuhan, quite legitimately - and they produce good science…

[flagged]

[flagged]

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#118

Post by cld8483 »

michaelgrosner2 wrote: post #12
ironyman wrote: post #4

I strongly suspect that the three-letter agencies have good intel to conclusively show that this is the case, but they have decided to hold back on it for the sake of US-China relations. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-intelligence-releases-repor...

I'm not sure what world you're living in but we've been shooting missiles at Chinese military objects and restricting their access to semiconductors. I have little doubt that if the CIA or FBI had information it was actually a Chinese plot they would have released it by now.

> I'm not sure what world you're living in but we've been shooting missiles at Chinese military objects

Only after several days of failing to resolve the balloon matter diplomatically. Shooting it down was not their first resort, and that's probably because diplomatic considerations with China were being weighed against the domestic political situation. When the diplomatic situation can be kept relatively smooth and normal by keeping the public in the dark, that's the 'rational' choice.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#119

Post by tanseydavid »

boeingUH60 wrote: post #56
someuser54541 wrote: post #51

I'm fairly confident posts like these are artificially weighted to fall off the front page..that seems to happen when a COVID related post gets popular on HN. This post has more points and comments than the majority of stuff on the front page but it's currently on page 3. I've casually noticed something similar over the past ~18 months with posts related to COVID.

Many people flag these types of posts (including myself) because they get too toxic. I even flagged this one despite commenting on it.

>> flag these types of posts (including myself) because they get too toxic

Please do not do this.

When you do this, it potentially prevents others from being able to to analyze it and form their own judgement.

"Too toxic" is an opinion.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#120

Post by 2-718-281-828 »

r053bud wrote: post #116
2-718-281-828 wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Because what good does it do to actually dealing with the outbreak? I assume the government just made a decision that it was politically less desirable to do for a number of reasons. Mainly, probably the continuing attempts at thawing of relations with China.

that's not all there is to it. there are deeper relations between the NIH and Wuhan.
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