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France's baby bust

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Re: France's baby bust

#111

Post by lalopalota »

AlchemistCamp wrote: post #62
swarnie wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand this is an America-centric forum but does religion play a major role in politics in the rest of the western world? I'm counting back though prime ministers and i can't recall one who made religion a major part of their platform in my lifetime.

> does religion play a major rile in politics in the rest of the western world? Hasn’t the growth of Islam in Europe been a large and growing political issue for the past decade? France in particular has had lot of debates about religious clothing at schools, what kind of criticism of religious ideas is and isn’t acceptable, etc. From my POV, it looks like religion is a bigger deal in European than American politics.…

> marrying across political lines now carries more opposition than across religious ones, for the majority of people

Where can I learn more about this? I find it difficult to believe this is true for "the majority of people".

Re: France's baby bust

#112

Post by ciphol »

etothepii wrote: post #55
nathan_compton wrote: post #53

In my estimation its worth a decline in standard of living to be free of traditional, conservative values.

Isn't the view of the article that you get both? The areas where the counter reformation was strongest had the biggest drop in fertility.

The areas where the counter-reformation (i.e. theocracy) was strongest had the most secular populations. Do you call that religion or not-religion?

Re: France's baby bust

#113

Post by pjc50 »

4gotunameagain wrote: post #4

So, the demographic transition took place exceptionally early in France, but why? In my research, I argue that the diminished sway of the Catholic Church, nearly 30 years before the French Revolution, was the key driver of the fertility decline. It more and more seems like "traditional", conservative societies are more successful on aggregate. If they are beneficial to the individuals comprising them, this is a matte…

In the middle of the 20th century, an extremely conservative, traditionalist society that was technologically modernizing at an extremely high rate but still a feudal empire that was one generation away from pastoralism decided they would attack the most self-declared "liberated" society in the world. The situation proceeded not necessarily to their advantage.

(Despite what the fascists want to think, there's substantial evidence that open societies being more adaptable and innovative is an overwhelming advantage)

Re: France's baby bust

#114

Post by yobbo »

makeitdouble wrote: post #58

> France appeared to be a stagnant society before the French Revolution. If culture was not changing, then how could it be responsible for such a climactic shift in such an important social outcome? > Using this genealogical data, I estimate that the decline in fertility took hold in France in the 1760s 1760s don’t look far from the French Revolution to me. Ending a regime that lasted more than a dozen centuries does…

Yes. French revolution was partly sparked by high food prices due to poor harvests.

When there is surplus, the population can grow. If production does not increase in step with population growth, there will be shortage. When there is shortage, there is hunger and/or starvation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overshoot_(population)

Re: France's baby bust

#115

Post by nwatson »

AdrianB1 wrote: post #50
pfdietz wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The assumption that religion is something that people stick with is dubious, though. In the absence of coercion people will tend to abandon religion. Look at what's happening to Christianity in the US.

I thought the same, but real life experience shows that in my country (Romania) there is an increase of religion with age, especially for women; in other words, most women start being religious when they age and these days most of the religious traditions are maintained and transmitted by old women. I know many women that were secular in their 20-30, become religious at 50 and are regular churchgoers at 70. My mother…

Weren't churches a huge factor in deposing Ceausescu and an end to the Soviet influence, as well as the support of populace in hard times before the regime's fall? I'd imagine that would put religion in some favorable light in Romania in particular.

https://www.hungarianconservative.com/articles/politics/chur...

Edit: capitalization

Re: France's baby bust

#116

Post by immibis »

bluGill wrote: post #105
immibis wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We increase the human population by another 100x in the never-ending quest to increase GDP, then we run out of resources and die. Dolphins become the most intelligent life on the planet.

Population is on track to peak and start declining around 2050

That trend is the one thing that may still save us, but don't worry, they'll find a way to prevent that, because a decreasing population also decreases GDP and the stock market, and we can't have that.

Re: France's baby bust

#117

Post by krona »

ookdatnog wrote: post #30
4gotunameagain wrote: post #4

So, the demographic transition took place exceptionally early in France, but why? In my research, I argue that the diminished sway of the Catholic Church, nearly 30 years before the French Revolution, was the key driver of the fertility decline. It more and more seems like "traditional", conservative societies are more successful on aggregate. If they are beneficial to the individuals comprising them, this is a matte…

I'm not sure how you're getting to this enormous generalization. Seems to me that for the past century or so, liberal societies have been the dominant societies on the world stage. Which conservative, traditionalist societies are you thinking of that are more successful or have "higher fitness" than liberal societies? When I think of an archetypal "conservative, traditional" society, the first countries that spring t…

> Which conservative, traditionalist societies are you thinking of..

Legitimacy laws were still prevalent across the western world until the 1970's. Furthermore, abortion was basically illegal in Britain until 1967.

In the year that Legitimacy ceased to have legal meaning in Britain, the fertility rate dropped below 2, where it remains today.

Re: France's baby bust

#118

Post by nwatson »

zwirbl wrote: post #65
mamonster wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You will get to see this within the next 50-60 years in Israel. AFAIK the expectation is that Haredi+Israeli Arabs will be 50% of the population by like 2070.

With so many orthodox jews there will also be barely any workforce left

There will be plenty of anti-semitic pro-Israel-for-the-purpose-of-bringing-on-the-apocalypse USA pseudo-evangelicals to support them. (I'm a USA evangelical.)

Re: France's baby bust

#119

Post by usaar333 »

langsoul-com wrote: post #6

The book, "shall the religious inherit the world" is relevant. I'd be interested what happens when general birthrate declines and a religious group, that massively encourages tons of children, take larger voting percentages.

Interestingly, France happens to have among the highest fertility rates in Europe today.

Doesn't seem to be more religious though.

Re: France's baby bust

#120

Post by mtts »

rayiner wrote: post #108
mtts wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hasn’t the growth of Islam in Europe been a large and growing political issue for the past decade? Probably more like two decades by now :-) The political parties in Europe that pride themselves on anti-Islamism are themselves not religious all. And no one (of any significance) in Western Europe is arguing for a return to Christianity. Some parties advocate “Judeo-Christian values” but the various incarnations of t…

Those political parties in France talk about “western culture” instead of “Christianity,” but western culture is fundamentally an outgrowth of Christianity. Even if you strip out the supernatural parts, a religion provides all sorts of notions about fairness, justice, forgiveness, family life, the rules and order, etc. People in Europe are still socialized into all that, even if they stop going to church. This is app…

> Even if you strip out the supernatural parts, a religion provides all sorts of notions about fairness, justice, forgiveness, family life, the rules and order, etc.

Most people would call that a culture.

One were most people do not go to church on Sunday and politicians, even if they’re from a religious background, like Angela Merkel, don’t ever talk about God.

And one that is very different from the one across the Atlantic where “in God we trust” is the national motto and politicians make sure to fluff up their religious credentials.

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