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Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years

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Re: Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years

#21

Post by sdwr »

A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #2

As Scott Alexander at ACX recently said: "AGE OF MIRACLES AND WONDERS: We seem to be in the beginning of a slow takeoff. We should expect things to get very strange for however many years we have left before the singularity. So far the takeoff really is glacially slow (everyone talking about the blindingly fast pace of AI advances is anchored to different alternatives than I am) which just means more time to gawk at…

These are the days of miracle and wonder

This is the long-distance call

The way the camera follows us in slo-mo

The way we look to us all

Re: Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years

#23

Post by uejfiweun »

A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #2

As Scott Alexander at ACX recently said: "AGE OF MIRACLES AND WONDERS: We seem to be in the beginning of a slow takeoff. We should expect things to get very strange for however many years we have left before the singularity. So far the takeoff really is glacially slow (everyone talking about the blindingly fast pace of AI advances is anchored to different alternatives than I am) which just means more time to gawk at…

Gradually, then suddenly.

Re: Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years

#24

Post by ThrowawayTestr »

epups wrote: post #14

There is not enough written text to scale a model like ChatGPT at even 10x its current parameters, so improvements will have to come from optimizations and/or longer training (at diminishing returns).

How do you know that? There are thousands upon thousands of books that haven't been digitized.

Re: Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years

#26

Post by r9295 »

sdwr wrote: post #21
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #2

As Scott Alexander at ACX recently said: "AGE OF MIRACLES AND WONDERS: We seem to be in the beginning of a slow takeoff. We should expect things to get very strange for however many years we have left before the singularity. So far the takeoff really is glacially slow (everyone talking about the blindingly fast pace of AI advances is anchored to different alternatives than I am) which just means more time to gawk at…

These are the days of miracle and wonder This is the long-distance call The way the camera follows us in slo-mo The way we look to us all

God, I love Paul Simon

Re: Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years

#27

Post by meowface »

oneoff786 wrote: post #10
CharlesW wrote: post #4

This is hyperbolic, of course. But it makes Kurzweil's 2045 prediction of the singularity not as outlandish as it first seemed. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/reaching-s...

Still outlandish. Not especially well defended either.

We're far enough away from 2045 that it seems hasty to completely discard it as outlandish. But, yes, unlikely.

Re: Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years

#28

Post by rvnx »

BooneJS wrote: post #20
motoxpro wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? All of humanity imparting everything they think and know publicly seems incredibly valuable. 100% serious.

If you're looking to make a tweet generator, sure. If you're looking to harness the power of facts, no.

The main issue might be that the training set may get polluted by a lot of AI generated text (content that is not supposed to be there, but is there because AI-generated content is becoming widespread online).

Re: Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years

#29

Post by brhsagain »

I have a probably really stupid question but I'm going to ask it because I really don't know the answer.

What's stopping someone from starting a distributed effort to train an open source ChatGPT model, like Folding@home but for AI? Is it a technical limitation with how models are trained, difficulty of coordination, something else?

Re: Nvidia predicts AI models 1,000,000X more powerful than ChatGPT within 10 years

#30

Post by karmakaze »

CharlesW wrote: post #4

This is hyperbolic, of course. But it makes Kurzweil's 2045 prediction of the singularity not as outlandish as it first seemed. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/reaching-s...

He predicts 2029 as when machines will pass a "valid Turing test", one that goes for hours.
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